SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-05-02Last updated on 2024-05-02

Abstract

美联储会议过后,期权前端的 IV 在日内快速下降,期限波动率曲线较平;近端的 Skew 依然偏低,表露出了市场短期的恐慌避险情绪。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

昨日(1 MAY)美国 4 月 ADP 就业人数增加 19.2 万人,超出预期的 17.5 万,为 2023 年 7 月以来最大增幅。凌晨的 FOMC 会议上美联储如预期宣布维持利率不变,会上承认了近期通胀进展不顺,但鲍威尔最终做出了鸽派表态,称下次会议不太可能加息,目前推迟降息也是合适的。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

Source: Economic Calendar

数字货币方面,近期风险市场在美国利率“更高更久”的压迫下催生出了一定的避险情绪,使得 ETF 出现大量资金流出,同时现货市场上也出现巨鲸的抛售,共同造成了过去两日比特币价格的暴跌。有分析指出,此轮价格抛售或是在宏观压力下进行的止盈,包括初期入场 ETF 的投资者还有过去两年低迷时期购入 BTC 的持有者进行的减仓。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

Source: Farside Investors;TradingView

美联储会议过后,期权前端的 IV 在日内快速下降,期限波动率曲线较平;近端的 Skew 依然偏低,表露出了市场短期的恐慌避险情绪。交易方面,BTC 31 MAY 的隐含波动率水平在 Put 和 Call 的双重抛压下走低,ETH 主要成交则更加集中地分布在该到期日上,从大宗记录上看,除了 Outright Call 的抛售,也有成交卖短期 17 MAY 买 31 MAY 为代表的三角价差策略。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

Source: Deribit (截至 2 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

Data Source: Deribit, BTC/ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240502):比特币大跌,五月前景不明

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

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Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

438 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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