加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-04-27Last updated on 2024-04-27

Abstract

在过去一周的行情中，比特币与以太坊的价格都在周初下跌反弹上升，历史波动率在4.24高位下跌时最大，成交量在4.19下跌时较大，未平仓量小幅上升。隐含波动率BTC与ETH都大幅下降。此外，资金费率维持在低位，表明合约交易情绪持续低迷。市场宽度指标整体市场还处于弱势的阶段。在事件方面，需要等待美联储5.2的议息会议。比特币减半后各项指标表明投资者暂时对市场持观望态度。

比特币减半后冷清的一周

1. USDT 杠杆借贷年利率大幅回落

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周数据来源：https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/MarginFeeChart

在杠杆交易中，借贷者可以通过借入某种资产（如 USDT）来增加自己的交易资金，并以此进行更大规模的交易。这种操作通常会涉及支付一定的利息费用，即杠杆借贷年利率。

然而，当 USDT 杠杆借贷年利率出现大幅回落时，这意味着借贷杠杆交易的市场情绪低迷。较低的利率表示借贷需求不高，可能是由于投资者对市场的风险持谨慎态度或者对杠杆交易的兴趣下降。

2. 隐含波动率大幅下降

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

数据来源：https://t3index.com/indexes/bit-vol/

在期权市场中，隐含波动率是衡量市场对未来资产价格波动性的预期。它是通过期权价格计算得出的，反映了市场参与者对未来价格波动的预期水平。

当隐含波动率大幅下降时，这意味着期权市场参与者对未来资产价格波动性的预期降低。这可能是由于市场参与者对市场的稳定性或者预期的波动性水平持较为谨慎的态度。

以上两中情况都显示本周投资者对市场持观望态度，更加谨慎地评估风险并选择保守的交易策略或降低交易策略的波动性风险。

距离美联储议息会议（2024.05.02）还有约 6 天

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

市场技术与情绪环境分析

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

情绪分析组成

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

技术指标

价格走势

过去一周 BTC 价格上涨 1.62% ，ETH 价格上涨 2.98% 。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

上图是 BTC 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

上图是 ETH 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

表格显示过去一个周的价格变化率

价量分布图（支撑阻力）

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 价格在低位反弹上升后形成密集成交区。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

上图是 BTC 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

上图是 ETH 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

表格显示 BTC 与 ETH 过去一周中每周的密集成交区间

POC_SARPoint Of ControlSupportResistancebtc64634.5463324.4667053.72 eth 3159.183038.33260.96 

成交量与未平仓量

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 成交量在 4.19 下跌时最大；未平仓量 BTC 与 ETH 都有小幅上升。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

上图最上方 BTC 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

上图最上方 ETH 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

历史波动率与隐含波动率

过去一周历史波动率 BTC 与 ETH 都在 4.24 高位下跌时最高；隐含波动率 BTC 与 ETH 大幅下降。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

黄色线为历史波动率，蓝色线为隐含波动率，红点是其 7 日平均

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

事件驱动

等待 2024.5.2 的美联储议息会议。

情绪指标

动量情绪

过去一周比特币/黄金/纳指/恒指/沪深 300 中，恒指最强势，而表现最差为黄金。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

上图为不同资产过去一周的走势

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

放贷利率_借贷情绪

过去一周 USD 放贷年化收益平均为 9.8% ，短期利率在 10.4% 左右。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

黄色线为 USD 利率的最高价，蓝色线为最高价的 75% ，红色线为最高价的 75% 的 7 天平均值

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

表格显示 USD 利率过去不同持有天数的平均收益

资金费率_合约杠杆情绪

过去一周 BTC 资费平均年化收益为 3.5% ，合约杠杆情绪低迷。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

蓝色线为币安上 BTC 的资金费率，红色线为其 7 日平均

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

表格显示 BTC 的资费过去不同持有天数的平均收益

市场相关性_一致性情绪

过去一周选中的 129 个币中相关性下降至 0.74 左右，不同品种间的一致性下降。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

上图蓝色先为比特币价格，绿色线为['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx’]整体的相关性

市场宽度_整体情绪

过去一周选中的 129 个币，价格在 30 日均线上方的占比为 8.5% ，相对 BTC 价格在 30 日均线上方占比为 15.5% ，距离过去 30 天最低价大于 20% 的占比为 10% ，距离过去 30 天最高价小于 10% 的占比为 5.4% ，过去一周市场宽度指标显示整体市场处于弱势的阶段。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

上图为['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx’] 30 日的各宽度指标占比

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.04.19–04.26)：比特币减半后冷清的一周

总结

在过去一周的行情中，比特币（BTC）与以太坊（ETH）的价格都在周初下跌反弹上升，历史波动率在 4.24 高位下跌时最大，成交量在 4.19 下跌时较大，未平仓量小幅上升。隐含波动率 BTC 与 ETH 都大幅下降。此外，资金费率维持在低位，表明合约交易情绪持续低迷。市场宽度指标整体市场还处于弱势的阶段。在事件方面，需要等待美联储 5.2 的议息会议。比特币减半后各项指标表明投资者暂时对市场持观望态度。

Twitter: @DerivativesCN

Website: https://dcbot.ai/

Medium:https://medium.com/@DerivativesCN

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

Preferred Stock Is Not the Trigger for Corporate Bankruptcy, MicroStrategy's Dollar Reserves Can Cover Dividend and Interest Payments Until February 2027

Preferred Shares Are Not the Catalyst for Corporate Bankruptcy; MicroStrategy's Dollar Reserves Can Cover Dividend and Interest Payments Until February 2027. This article analyzes the nature of preferred shares used by MicroStrategy (MSTR). Legally equity but economically similar to debt, these shares, including its Bitcoin-linked STR convertible preferred notes (STRC), offer fixed or floating dividends. Crucially, MicroStrategy's preferred shares lack rigid redemption clauses, meaning they are not classified as traditional debt. This eliminates principal repayment pressure and means missed dividends do not constitute default or trigger bankruptcy, creating a "self-contradictory virtuous cycle." The article clarifies that if funds are short, MicroStrategy can defer or suspend preferred share dividends (except for non-cumulative types like STRD) without immediate risk. The real potential crisis point lies with its convertible bonds. If a prolonged bear market prevents conversion, MicroStrategy might need to sell Bitcoin to repay these bonds starting from the earliest maturity in September 2027, potentially creating a downward spiral. Preferred dividend suspensions would only exacerbate market panic in such a scenario. Recent financial activity shows MicroStrategy strengthened its position through four weeks of common stock (MSTR) issuances, raising over $851 million without issuing new preferred shares. It increased its dollar reserves to approximately $1.4 billion, which is sufficient to cover all preferred share dividends and interest until around March 2027. While Bitcoin purchases slowed recently, this prioritization of cash reserves enhances the company's near-term financial safety. The analysis concludes that if the Bitcoin bear market ends by early 2025 as anticipated, MicroStrategy can resume issuing MSTR stock in a rising market to replenish reserves and manage future dividend obligations, thereby reducing the long-term pressure from its preferred share structure.

marsbit43m ago

Preferred Stock Is Not the Trigger for Corporate Bankruptcy, MicroStrategy's Dollar Reserves Can Cover Dividend and Interest Payments Until February 2027

marsbit43m ago

Giants Wage the Context War, Reconstructing AI Moats

The article "Giants Launch the Context War, Reconstructing AI's Moat" discusses how leading AI companies—OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google—are shifting their competitive focus from model size to acquiring, managing, and utilizing user context (Context). Initially, Context referred to the length of text a model could process, leading to a "arms race" for longer context windows. However, the competition has evolved through three key phases: expanding text capacity (long context windows), enabling memory across sessions, and finally, integrating AI into real user environments like browsers and desktops to capture dynamic task states. Each company is pursuing a distinct strategy. OpenAI is building Context around the ChatGPT account, turning it into a central hub that accumulates user understanding across various integrated applications and tools. Anthropic, lacking a major user base, focuses on high-value verticals like coding, empowering its Claude model to actively gather Context through GUI interaction (Computer Use) and system connections (MCP protocol). Google, with vast existing user data from products like Search and Gmail, faces the challenge of restructuring this data into actionable, AI-understandable Context for its Gemini model within its ecosystem. The core argument is that the nature of competitive advantage in AI is changing. The internet era prized network effects—connecting more users. The AI era values "individual depth": the ability to build deep, task-specific understanding of a user. This creates a new moat through 1) the compounding value of accumulated Context, 2) deep integration with user tools and permissions, and 3) the establishment of trust for complex tasks. Therefore, the battle for Context is fundamentally about capturing "task entry points" and converting existing digital ecosystems into environments where AI can effectively understand and act, rather than merely scaling user numbers.

marsbit1h ago

Giants Wage the Context War, Reconstructing AI Moats

marsbit1h ago

Foundation Steps Back, Ethlabs Steps Forward: Ethereum Undergoes Its Largest Restructuring in History

On June 23rd, the Ethereum ecosystem witnessed two major shifts, signaling a significant governance realignment. First, former Ethereum Foundation researchers established Ethlabs, a new independent non-profit. Backed by major ETH holders like Bitmine and SharpLink, Ethlabs aims to address practical needs for institutional adoption, including faster settlement, native asset issuance, cross-chain transactions, and mainnet scaling. Secondly, the Ethereum Foundation announced a major restructuring, laying off 54 employees (20% of its staff) to become a leaner entity focused on protocol governance and maintenance rather than being the primary builder. This move represents a pivotal correction. Criticisms had mounted over the Foundation's perceived slowness, lack of clear strategy, and over-reliance on Vitalik Buterin's influence. Ethlabs emerges as a more execution-oriented, "industrialized" layer focused on market adoption—bridging the gap between research and real-world use. Notably, Vitalik Buterin is absent from its list of supporters, interpreted as an intentional step to avoid excessive personal endorsement and allow the organization to build independent credibility. The Ethereum Foundation's downsizing and redefinition mark a retreat from its former central coordinating role. It now aims to share the "privilege of stewarding Ethereum" with other emerging groups like Ethlabs, the Ethereum Applications Guild, and The Ethereum Economic Zone. Analysts frame this dual shift as the Foundation ensuring Ethereum remains "correct" (credibly neutral), while Ethlabs must prove it remains "effective" (competitive and attractive for capital and adoption). This addresses community "shareholder-like anxiety" about ETH's market performance. While risks exist—such as concerns over shifting from Foundation centrality to large-holder influence—the consensus is that the greater risk for Ethereum was inaction, caught between technical idealism and organizational inertia. These steps aim to create a more multi-stakeholder, execution-driven future for the network.

链捕手8h ago

Foundation Steps Back, Ethlabs Steps Forward: Ethereum Undergoes Its Largest Restructuring in History

链捕手8h ago

Bitbase World Trading Clash (BWTC) 2026 Is Live — Registration Open Through July

Bitbase has opened registration for BWTC 2026 (Bitbase World Trading Clash), a global trading competition with a Promotion Pool of up to 1,000,000 USDT. Registration runs from June 22 through July 23. The competition features two parallel tracks: a team-based Futures Team Pro track, scored on both total volume and return on capital, and an individual Trophy Picks track, ranked on individual volume. Team formation closes July 9. Over 2,000 traders registered in the first 36 hours, unlocking an initial 10,000 USDT in the dynamically scaling prize pool. Most rewards are paid as USDT futures trial credit (with profits withdrawable), except for a top-captain cash award. A referral-based scout program offers additional incentives. The event emphasizes rewarding effective capital usage over mere trading volume, aligning with Bitbase's "Trust Through Every Cycle" principle.

TheNewsCrypto10h ago

Bitbase World Trading Clash (BWTC) 2026 Is Live — Registration Open Through July

TheNewsCrypto10h ago

Second Half of U.S. Crypto Policy: The Clarity Act Aims for 60 Votes, CFTC's "One-Person Commission" Becomes Biggest Variable

In a pivotal year for US crypto policy, the "CLARITY Act" is advancing in the Senate but faces a high hurdle, needing 60 votes to pass. Key challenges include bridging partisan divides on ethics and swaying undecided Republican senators within a tight legislative calendar of only about 40 working days. The policy "second half" involves intense negotiations on a broader framework for Web3 and DeFi, including crypto tax reforms and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. A significant uncertainty is the understaffed CFTC, operating with four commissioner vacancies, which complicates regulatory clarity. Meanwhile, the departure of key "crypto champions"—SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce and Senator Cynthia Lummis—will impact ongoing policy efforts. Industry experts are cautiously optimistic but realistic. Sara K. Weed notes that while progress is being made, CLARITY is unlikely to pass this Congress, pushing agencies like the SEC and CFTC to provide more guidance. Sulolit Mukherjee suggests meaningful crypto tax legislation is more likely to be attached to larger must-pass bills. Rashan Colbert discusses the jurisdictional debate over prediction markets, emphasizing the need for a regulatory framework that fosters their development as financial tools rather than treating them broadly as gambling. The clock is ticking, but opportunities remain for substantive progress through continued bipartisan dialogue and pragmatic efforts.

marsbit11h ago

Second Half of U.S. Crypto Policy: The Clarity Act Aims for 60 Votes, CFTC's "One-Person Commission" Becomes Biggest Variable

marsbit11h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

436 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions

Hot Categoriesright-arrow

Hot Tagsright-arrow