【一周靓文】上海升级如期而至,以太坊上演狂潮

投研第一线Published on 2023-04-15Last updated on 2023-04-15

Abstract

一周靓文,回顾过去一周最值得关注的热点文章,帮您快速理解市场动态。

上海升级靴子落地

上海升级后的以太坊:展望质押赛道与抛压分析

以太坊上海升级已于北京时间4月13日6点28分在Epoch 194048高度完成。当前以太坊累计质押量约1739万枚,质押率15.4%,年化收益率为5.16%。2022年9月,以太坊成功过渡到权益证明 (PoS) 共识机制,质押32个ETH即可成为验证者。此次上海升级增加了取款功能,用户可提取质押的ETH及相关收益。

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上海升级后,各方对于ETH未来走势观点不一

短期和长期趋势是不同的,加密对冲基金 Globe 3 Capital 首席投资官 Matt Lason 在其博客中表示,尽管 ETH 价格可能会下跌,但它应该是暂时的,而且没有一些人预测的那么严重。Lason 表示,他预计 ETH 到今年年底将达到 3,300 美元,理由是机构对该资产的需求将增加。

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宏观分析

【研报精选】下周CPI可能将决定美联储5月是否加息

尽管3月非农新增就业低于预期,但失业率出现下滑,劳动参与率提升,使市场认为美国劳动力市场仍然坚韧,对美联储5月继续加息的预期上升,交易员的注意力转向CPI。

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【研报精选】从美国3月CPI数据展望美联储政策前景

楼兰财经认为:核心通胀仍表现出较强的粘性。未来面临的主要干扰因素是美联储继续缩表过程中可能发生的金融风险事件。

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香港行情

【研报精选】a16z《加密货币状况》报告:美国正在失去Web3领先优势

a16z认为:我们仍然处于 Web3 的早期,但我们已经不再是开始。从短期的波动中退后一步,可以看到一个更可预测的模式:一个稳定的产品周期,这与媒体关注的金融周期明显不同。

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香港财政司司长陈茂波:Web3缺乏妥善的监管框架,将最大程度实现虚拟资产创新和发展

香港将推动虚拟资产市场可持续和负责地发展,在「相同业务、相同风险、相同规则」的监管思路下,让虚拟资产最大程度创新和发展。

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香港与脱钩:重返3万美元的比特币

4 月 11 日凌晨,比特币重返 3 万美元大关,跟风中香港概念龙头 CFX(Conflux)表现最强,再度接近历史高点,抖音 App 支持比特币价格查询的截图在各大社群流传,「比特币」关键字冲进微博热搜前二十,一时坊间甚至有「国内将重新支持 PoW 回归」的流言四起。

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Related Reads

USDT Supply Shrinks by $5.5 Billion While Stablecoin Turnover Hits Record High

The supply of stablecoins has contracted for the first time in years, with total market capitalization falling 4.3% from its May peak to $308.5 billion. Despite this decline, June saw a record $1.83 trillion in adjusted transaction volume for stablecoins, a 60% increase from May. This divergence suggests a shift in usage patterns: less capital is sitting idle, while the remaining supply circulates more rapidly through payment and trading systems. Specifically, the supply of Tether's USDT decreased from approximately $189.54 billion to $184 billion between May 1 and July 29, while Circle's USDC supply fell from $77.27 billion to $72.41 billion. Part of this capital appears to have moved into tokenized Treasury products, a sector whose value has grown to over $16 billion, partly driven by regulations like the 2025 GENIUS Act that prohibit interest payments on payment-focused stablecoins. Transaction velocity is emerging as a key metric, with stablecoins now turning over about six times per month—double the rate from two years ago. USDC, despite having a smaller supply than USDT, processed about $1.21 trillion in adjusted volume in June, leading in settlement activity. While a significant portion of on-chain volume may not represent genuine economic payments, identifiable real-world payments have grown sharply, reaching an estimated $390 billion in 2025. The data indicates stablecoins are evolving from static collateral into active financial infrastructure.

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USDT Supply Shrinks by $5.5 Billion While Stablecoin Turnover Hits Record High

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