香港与脱钩:重返3万美元的比特币

区块律动Published on 2023-04-11Last updated on 2023-04-11

Abstract

情绪空间已经打开,行情有了诞生的土壤

4 月 11 日凌晨,比特币重返 3 万美元大关,跟风中香港概念龙头 CFX(Conflux)表现最强,再度接近历史高点,抖音 App 支持比特币价格查询的截图在各大社群流传,「比特币」关键字冲进微博热搜前二十,一时坊间甚至有「国内将重新支持 PoW 回归」的流言四起。


昨日日间,香港中通社报道,香港立法会议员吴杰庄证实,多个行业领导人和立法会议员组成的香港 Web 3.0 协会将于本月 11 日正式成立,组成者包括金融界和科技界重量级人物,其中香港特区行政长官李家超、中联办领导将出席 Web3.0 协会成立典礼。

连续数日,各大交易平台与机构在香港的活动办得如火如荼,规模与力度空前,如此重金押注下,显然对香港未来 Crypto 领域的政策与市场空间寄予厚望。

涨出逻辑,在整个 3 到 4 月被内卷的空投折磨得疲惫不堪的加密行业,比特币用两轮上涨再次奠定了其叙事的主体地位。

比特币的明暗叙事

由于硅谷银行事件,比特币在 3 月 10 日向下探底跌破 2 万美元,而后反抽,势如破竹,直到站稳 28,000 美元,此轮上涨先是由于 Circle 大量的美债头寸导致的生态恐慌,错杀反弹,叠加对「中心化金融」失信的逻辑,共振再临历史前高的黄金一波向上;而后银行业危机继续发散,在美联储将停止加息的各类传言中,比特币继续向上。

此处资金有意重演 2020 年行情,即衰退时共振黄金,放水时共振科技,强化了比特币数字黄金的元叙事。另一方面,整个 3 月地缘政治大事件频出,沙特与伊朗重新建交,脱钩的延续,半导体产业链加剧分裂,美国监管层对 PoS 质押的重拳出击,都表明了多元货币格局将逐渐产生,该趋势将持续非常长的时间,比特币将在大时代的叙事中扮演关键角色。

千言万语一句话,利好去中心化,而比特币是去中心化最大受益标的。

4 月行情,即当前的香港行情,小处看是加密在东方的回归,大处看是东西方博弈中的跷跷板效应,比特币与 Crypto 斡旋两间,似乎哪里的利好都与它有关,在那里被人排斥,在这里便有了被接纳的理由。当然,比特币不属于任何一边,永远处于中间才是受益的根本。

比特币对 Web3 的带动与分化

如果脱钩继续,美联储顾虑国内基层就业,将不会猛烈加息,降息时间点的到来将更远,温吞的紧缩政策会使市场缺少波动,同时不利于科技行业的一级市场。

比特币行情可以带动 Web3 概念,反之科技行业的萎缩利空 Web3 概念,却未必利空比特币。加密发展至今,比特币已渐渐成为成长标的而得到认可,多重叙事加持下可进可退,即使 Web3 当前叙事些许缺乏新意,但情绪空间已经打开,行情的诞生也有了足够土壤。

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