Cardano stalls after NIGHT launch – Can ADA hold $0.405?

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-14Last updated on 2025-12-14

Abstract

The launch of Midnight's NIGHT token occurred during a period of significant losses for Cardano (ADA) holders, initially sparking a 30.6% rally from $0.37 to $0.484. However, the bullish momentum stalled as buyers failed to reclaim the key $0.52 resistance level. Technical indicators now signal a strong downtrend, with the critical support at $0.405 under threat. A break below this level could accelerate selling toward $0.37. While a cluster of short liquidations near $0.48 may attract prices upward, current market conditions and rising capital outflows suggest continued bearish pressure. Traders are advised to monitor a potential breakdown below $0.405 for short opportunities, though Bitcoin's volatility remains a factor that could disrupt this outlook.

The launch of the Midnight’s [NIGHT] native token came at a time when Cardano holders were facing heavy losses.

Those losses represented an “extreme buy” event for Cardano, and a rally could have been catalyzed by the Midnight sidechain launch.

A week before the 8th of December NIGHT launch, Cardano [ADA] token prices began a rally from $0.37. By the 9th of December, they were able to drive a 30.6% move to $0.484. However, the rally ended there.

The inability of the bulls to sustain the pressure and reclaim the $0.52 long-term resistance level meant that the bullish strength was no reliable strength after all.

Cardano indicators signal a strong downtrend in progress

On the 1-day chart, the swing low at $0.405 was under threat from sellers. A daily close below this level would shift the structure bearishly.

Further south, the $0.37 was another key support level. A breakdown below these two would herald the downtrend’s continuation.

The CMF showed that selling pressure was rising once again, with a drop below -0.05. Significant capital outflows confirmed what the DMI had been showing since the 10/10 crash.

Taken together, the daily indicators suggested the bearish trend remained intact.

The bullish Cardano argument

The 1-month Liquidation Heatmap showed a build-up of short liquidations above the recent swing high at $0.48. This magnetic zone could pull prices higher, like it did earlier this month.

While there was a sparsity of liquidations between $0.4 and $0.5, the $0.43-$0.44 pocket could oppose a quick rally.

Traders’ call to action- be prepared for bearishness

The price action on the daily chart showed that the structure remained bullish. However, the technical indicators and the recent Bitcoin [BTC] volatility did little to aid the ADA bulls.

Moreover, the rally that stalled at $0.48 was not halted at $0.45 or $0.43. This indicated a lack of buying pressure, which the CMF confirmed.

Therefore, traders can watch out for a drop below $0.405. Such a drop, followed by a retest of the same level as resistance, could offer a selling opportunity.

Final Thoughts

  • Traders looking for the downtrend to continue, be warned- the Bitcoin volatility could mess with a bearish continuation. Monday’s price action could give clues for next week’s moves.
  • If the $0.405 level is defended and Cardano climbs back above $0.43, bulls have reason to be cautiously optimistic.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion

Related Reads

Understanding the New Economic Model of Tokenization

Understanding the New Token Economics Model The commercialization of AI applications is evolving from selling software and subscriptions to selling token call capacity. Tokens, the fundamental unit of information processing for large language models (LLMs), have become the basis for API billing and consumption. With call volumes exploding, tokens themselves are now being traded—procured, routed, split, and resold—forming a new intermediary market. This layer connects upstream LLM providers with downstream developers and enterprises, acting as a global wholesale-to-retail liquidity network. The rise of this business is fueled by a massive surge in China's daily token call volume—growing over a thousandfold from 100 billion in early 2024 to over 140 trillion by March 2026—and significant improvements in domestic LLM capabilities, which are now competitive globally. The core value of token distribution platforms extends beyond simple arbitrage. Key functions include aggregating multiple models (like GPT, Claude, and domestic models such as Kimi and DeepSeek) under a unified API, lowering network and payment barriers, and providing enterprise services like model selection, prompt engineering, and system integration. Profit models are diversifying: (1) resale margins; (2) technical premiums from proprietary inference acceleration (e.g., reducing costs to 1/10 of the industry standard); and (3) enterprise value-added services. High-consumption scenarios like marketing, short-form video, gaming, and e-commerce are primary drivers. Investment opportunities are seen in both companies with strong model capabilities (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent, MiniMax) and those with high-consumption client scenarios (e.g., marketing agencies with overseas reach). However, risks are significant: low entry barriers leading to intense competition, capital requirements and bad debt risks from advance payments, and dependency on policy changes from upstream LLM providers who control API pricing and access.

marsbit5m ago

Understanding the New Economic Model of Tokenization

marsbit5m ago

Farewell to the Copper Era: Understanding the Logic of the AI Silicon Photonics Industry Chain and Key US Stock Players

**Summary: The Era of Silicon Photonics and Key AI Infrastructure Stocks** The article delves into the transition from copper-based interconnects to silicon photonics (SiPh) as a critical enabler for next-generation AI data centers. It explains that copper faces fundamental physical limits—the bandwidth wall, density wall, and power wall—at high data rates (1.6T+), making a material shift essential. Silicon photonics, which integrates components like lasers, modulators, and detectors onto a silicon chip, offers a solution by leveraging mature CMOS manufacturing for cost-effective, high-volume production. A key challenge is that silicon itself is not an efficient light source, making Indium Phosphide (InP) lasers a critical and supply-constrained component. A major industry catalyst was NVIDIA's 2025 GTC announcement, declaring optical interconnects a "standard" from its Rubin platform onward, followed by strategic investments to secure the supply chain. The industry is structured in four key layers: 1. **Foundries:** TSMC leads with its COUPE platform, while Tower Semiconductor (specialized SiPh foundry) and GlobalFoundries are major players. 2. **Core Component Suppliers:** Lumentum is highlighted as the sole volume manufacturer of the crucial 200G/lane EML laser, with orders locked by NVIDIA through 2027. 3. **Module & System Manufacturers:** Coherent holds significant market share, with Chinese manufacturers like InnoLight also noted for scale. 4. **System Integrators:** NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Marvell dominate this layer, setting standards and integrating technology. The article identifies core public investment targets: **NVIDIA (NVDA)** as the ecosystem driver; **Broadcom (AVGO)** and **Marvell (MRVL)** in networking/switching chips; **Lumentum (LITE)** and **Coherent (COHR)** for critical components; and foundries **TSMC (TSM)** and **Tower Semiconductor (TSEM)**. Private companies Lightmatter and Ayar Labs are noted as key IPO candidates. The silicon photonics shift is driving a re-rating of company valuations, moving them from traditional telecom/industrial metrics to premium AI infrastructure multiples. The industry features high barriers to entry (e.g., multi-year lead times for InP laser capacity, complex 3D integration/thermal management, and lengthy customer qualification cycles), suggesting a "winner-takes-most" dynamic. Risks include dependence on hyperscaler capex cycles, potential technology disruption among competing optical approaches (LPO, CPO, OCS, Optical I/O), and a timeline where widespread CPO deployment may not occur until ~2028, with LPO serving as a transitional technology. The conclusion advises that betting on the overall industry trend may be safer than betting on any single company.

marsbit45m ago

Farewell to the Copper Era: Understanding the Logic of the AI Silicon Photonics Industry Chain and Key US Stock Players

marsbit45m ago

Deconstructing the Real Risks of DeFi Lending: Annual Loss Rate Only 0.03%

Deconstructing the true risks of DeFi lending reveals an annual loss rate of only 0.03% from hacks and exploits. Analysis of DeFi Llama data (excluding cross-chain bridge incidents) for EVM and Solana lending protocols shows that despite high historical attack frequency due to concentrated assets, the sector's security has matured significantly. Over the past year, non-cross-chain lending on these chains saw gross losses of $309M, with net losses after recoveries at $301M. Against a daily average TVL of $99.6B, this translates to a minimal annualized loss rate of approximately 0.03%. The Euler Finance case in 2023, where $197M was fully recovered, exemplifies improving asset recovery capabilities, which now account for roughly 20% of losses in this sector. Loss events follow a log-normal distribution: most are small-scale, with catastrophic losses being rare outliers. This pattern, combined with the massive scale of the total lending market, means single incidents rarely impact the broader ecosystem. It underscores the effectiveness of portfolio diversification and provides a basis for sustainable insurance models. The data indicates DeFi lending has entered a mature phase where risks are quantifiable, categorized, and manageable. The actual financial loss relative to the total capital deployed is extremely low, challenging prevailing narratives of systemic risk.

marsbit45m ago

Deconstructing the Real Risks of DeFi Lending: Annual Loss Rate Only 0.03%

marsbit45m ago

Trump to Swear in Warsh at White House, Markets Watch: Will He Heed President's Call for Rate Cuts?

According to a White House official, President Trump will personally preside over the swearing-in ceremony for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the White House on Friday. Warsh, set to become the 17th Fed chair and its wealthiest ever, succeeds Jerome Powell. The White House ceremony underscores Trump's high level of personal interest in this appointment, contrasting with Powell's 2018 internal Fed swearing-in, which Trump did not attend. This marks the first White House Fed chair oath-taking since Alan Greenspan in 1987. The ceremony concludes an unusually prolonged transition at the central bank. Powell, whose term ended last weekend, has remained as acting chair pending Warsh's Senate confirmation and will stay on the Fed Board for an unspecified period. Warsh assumes leadership at a complex time, with the U.S.-Israel war on Iran exacerbating inflationary pressures and complicating the policy outlook. Critics have raised concerns about his independence from the White House. While Trump has expressed expectations for near-term rate cuts, Warsh pledged independence during his confirmation hearings but also sharply criticized the Fed's recent performance.

marsbit58m ago

Trump to Swear in Warsh at White House, Markets Watch: Will He Heed President's Call for Rate Cuts?

marsbit58m ago

POLY's Appearance Hints Are Getting Denser, How Far Away Is the Polymarket Airdrop?

**POLY Debut Hints Grow More Frequent: How Far is the Polymarket Airdrop?** Recent continuous hints from Polymarket team members regarding the POLY token have sparked widespread analysis within airdrop communities about its launch timeline and potential scale. According to predict.fun data, the probability of "Polymarket launching its official token before year-end 2025" currently stands at 56%. Hints about POLY began in October 2024. CEO Shayne Coplan's social media post mentioning $POLY alongside major cryptocurrencies first fueled speculation. This was followed by Growth Lead William LeGate discussing "prospective airdrop farmers," and CMO Matthew Modabber explicitly confirming that "Polymarket will have a token, and there will be an airdrop." The momentum continued into 2025. In April, major crypto data platforms CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap created placeholder pages for POLY, further solidifying expectations. May saw discussions shift towards token utility and airdrop criteria. A team member's "Soon" reply to a question about staking POLY for fee reductions, and a leaked internal screenshot showing an "Airdrop" tab, significantly increased anticipation. LeGate also outlined potential airdrop qualifiers, mentioning badges for employees, high-volume/high-profit traders, and ecosystem builders. He suggested that linking a Polymarket account to X (Twitter), sharing trades and market insights, and actively engaging with the community might constitute part of the eligibility criteria, leading to a surge in related social media activity. Despite the growing hype, the article's author expresses a personal view that Polymarket might prioritize platform stability and infrastructure upgrades—especially with the upcoming World Cup—over an immediate token launch, opting for a post-event release. Their current strategy involves hedging positions across prediction markets, actively trading on Polymarket, and engaging on social media to potentially qualify for a future airdrop.

Odaily星球日报1h ago

POLY's Appearance Hints Are Getting Denser, How Far Away Is the Polymarket Airdrop?

Odaily星球日报1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of ADA (ADA) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions

Hot Categoriesright-arrow

Hot Tagsright-arrow