# FOMC Articoli collegati

Il Centro Notizie HTX fornisce gli articoli più recenti e le analisi più approfondite su "FOMC", coprendo tendenze di mercato, aggiornamenti sui progetti, sviluppi tecnologici e politiche normative nel settore crypto.

Walsh Is Quietly Reshaping the Federal Reserve Through Five Working Groups

In an effort to subtly reshape the Federal Reserve, Chair Kevin Wash has established five "Chair's Advancement of Monetary Policy" working groups. These groups, led entirely by 15 external experts and supported by Fed staff, cover the entire monetary policy "operating system": data inputs, productivity/employment/inflation models, balance sheet tools, and external communications. The initiative centralizes agenda-setting, knowledge production, data access, and public narrative control under the Chair's office, while formal decision-making power remains with the FOMC and Board. Analysts note this mirrors tactics like China's use of central working groups—bypassing bureaucratic inertia, creating parallel reporting channels, and enabling rapid "top-level design" to reset policy agendas. This suggests Wash may hold off on major policy moves until the groups conclude their studies. Key future questions are whether these groups become permanent and if their conclusions effectively become pre-determined policy for the FOMC to ratify.

marsbit07/10 10:23

Walsh Is Quietly Reshaping the Federal Reserve Through Five Working Groups

marsbit07/10 10:23

Unexpected Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data Pushes BTC to Rebound 11%, FOMC Minutes to Test the Narrative of This Rally

Bitcoin has rebounded 11% from its 21-month low, but the sustainability of this rally hinges entirely on the Federal Reserve's release of the June FOMC meeting minutes. The bounce was triggered by a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, which showed only 57,000 jobs added in June—about half of economists' forecasts. This data prompted traders to scale back bets on further Fed rate hikes, fueling a rally in Bitcoin alongside gold and stocks. The upcoming minutes are critical. They will reveal whether Fed officials, in their mid-June meeting, were already expressing concerns about a weakening labor market, tight credit conditions, or the risks of overtightening—factors that would support the market's recent dovish shift. Conversely, if the discussion focused on persistent inflation and the conditions for more rate hikes, the rally's foundational narrative would crumble. Market indicators show the rebound's fragility. While US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant single-day inflow, it followed a prolonged period of outflows. On-chain data indicates a substantial increase in Bitcoin being moved to exchanges, creating potential sell pressure. Options market positioning suggests key price levels around $60,000 and $62,000 that could either stabilize or accelerate price movement. In essence, Bitcoin's 11% gain is built on speculation about the Fed's private deliberations three weeks ago. The FOMC minutes will replace that speculation with concrete details, and the discrepancy between market expectations and the actual record will determine whether Bitcoin holds above $64,000 or falls back toward $58,000.

marsbit07/08 04:52

Unexpected Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data Pushes BTC to Rebound 11%, FOMC Minutes to Test the Narrative of This Rally

marsbit07/08 04:52

Here’s why Strategy’s $216M Bitcoin sale may not be bearish after all

Strategy's recent disclosure of a $216M Bitcoin sale, part of a larger $1.25B plan, did not trigger the severe market downturn some analysts feared. Instead, Bitcoin's price remained stable above $63K. Grayscale Research suggests this move could actually support BTC price stability by restoring confidence in Strategy's financial structure and helping the asset find a more durable bottom. This contrasts with the sharp drop seen in early June after a much smaller BTC sale. The firm's preferred stock (STRC) also rebounded following the announcement. While critics like Peter Schiff point to potential losses, the muted market reaction has led some analysts to view the resilience as a potential sign of a market bottom.

ambcrypto07/08 03:03

Here’s why Strategy’s $216M Bitcoin sale may not be bearish after all

ambcrypto07/08 03:03

Whale bets $70M on Bitcoin, Solana recovery – Will Fed’s hike fears ruin it?

A whale increased its long positions in Bitcoin and Solana with a $70M bet, and opened a $78M total position including a short on Hyperliquid (HYPE). The move followed a weak U.S. jobs report, which fueled a relief rally in crypto markets by easing fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes. The whale initially saw an unrealized profit of $9.2M. However, Fed rate expectations did not shift significantly toward cuts; markets still price an 83% chance rates remain unchanged. Upcoming FOMC meeting minutes could trigger volatility. The whale's position is already under pressure, with the HYPE short down 70%. Meanwhile, smart money increased bidding on Solana by 129%, but Bitcoin faces heavy short positions near $62K, setting up potential for a short squeeze. For a sustained recovery, Bitcoin must clear resistance at $62.3K and $65K. Overall, the market's direction hinges on the Fed's signals and whether hawkish hints could renew selling pressure.

ambcrypto07/03 14:03

Whale bets $70M on Bitcoin, Solana recovery – Will Fed’s hike fears ruin it?

ambcrypto07/03 14:03

New Chair, Old Inflation, Better-Than-Expected Jobs: How Are Global Assets Repriced After Wash's Debut?

New Fed Chairman Kevin Wash's first FOMC meeting delivered a "hold" decision, keeping rates at 3.50%-3.75%. The key signal was a major shift in communication: the policy statement was shortened, and forward guidance was removed. Wash emphasized the Fed will no longer pre-commit to future actions, instead refocusing markets on economic data itself. The updated "dot plot" revealed a hawkish tilt, with the median forecast for the policy rate rising to 3.8% by year-end, suggesting a potential 25-basis-point hike in 2026. PCE inflation forecasts were also significantly raised. This reflects the Fed's current dilemma: a resilient job market (May nonfarm payrolls beat expectations) coupled with persistent inflation (PCE remains well above 2%) makes rate cuts unlikely and hikes a possibility. Wash inherits a deeply divided committee and a challenging macro environment reminiscent of 1994—strong growth with latent stagflation risks. His primary test is balancing inflation control against economic stability. Markets are repricing assets accordingly. The dollar strengthened on higher rate expectations. Treasury ETFs face pressure from potential hikes but may attract haven flows if growth fears emerge. Gold's role is more as a hedge amid conflicting forces. AI infrastructure stocks face valuation compression from higher rates, but the sector's fundamental demand logic remains intact if cloud CapEx holds. Defense stocks offer some resilience due to long-term government contracts. Looking ahead, key data points will drive market moves: the June nonfarm payrolls (July 2) and CPI (mid-July) will be critical for setting the tone of the July FOMC meeting (July 28-29), where Wash may face his first real policy decision. Political pressure from the White House for rate cuts will also be a persistent theme testing Fed independence.

marsbit06/24 06:48

New Chair, Old Inflation, Better-Than-Expected Jobs: How Are Global Assets Repriced After Wash's Debut?

marsbit06/24 06:48

Warsh’s First FOMC Chairmanship: Fed Provides Less Rate Guidance, Will US Bonds Become More Expensive?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting in June 2026 marked a shift in communication policy. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% but removed some forward guidance from its statement, and Warsh did not submit his own "dot plot" interest rate forecast. The move reduces clear signals on future policy paths, which bond markets interpreted as introducing greater uncertainty. Consequently, short-term Treasury yields, like the 2-year, rose to multi-month highs as investors demanded higher yields to compensate for increased policy judgment risk. Warsh aims to break the "echo chamber" where markets overly focus on Fed signals rather than economic fundamentals. While some investors welcome potential reduced market speculation, others worry that less clarity will amplify volatility and raise borrowing costs. The review of Fed communication tools underscores a debate on balancing transparency with policy flexibility in a higher-rate environment.

marsbit06/23 10:31

Warsh’s First FOMC Chairmanship: Fed Provides Less Rate Guidance, Will US Bonds Become More Expensive?

marsbit06/23 10:31

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Faces Congress on July 14 Amid Rate Hike Debate

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on July 14, providing his first monetary policy assessment to Congress. This hearing occurs weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting and fulfills the Fed's biannual reporting requirement. Investors are closely watching for insights on inflation and interest rates. Attention has shifted to the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures price index data, with May's figures expected to show a 0.5% monthly increase. Due to persistent inflation, some institutions like Bank of America now forecast three quarter-point rate hikes in September, October, and December, a shift from earlier expectations of no changes this year. Markets currently see a low probability of a July rate hike but are increasingly pricing in tightening later in the year, with CME FedWatch data indicating over a 50% chance of a move by September.

TheNewsCrypto06/23 10:10

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Faces Congress on July 14 Amid Rate Hike Debate

TheNewsCrypto06/23 10:10

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

Report Analysis: Federal Reserve's New Chair Debut – A New Captain, But the Same Script? Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth B. Carpenter analyzes the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a June 21 report. Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance on interest rates, aligning with his philosophy. However, market expectations for a rate hike this year were reinforced. Key signals lie elsewhere: inflation may fall more than expected, and quantitative tightening (QT) could be more aggressive than anticipated. The FOMC's "dot plot" suggests only one rate hike in 2026. Carpenter argues that if inflation undershoots forecasts, the logic for even a single hike weakens, especially as projections indicate potential rate cuts in 2027. On QT, Warsh's stance is clear. Carpenter notes that measures like halving the Treasury's account balance could shrink the Fed's balance sheet by around $500 billion with minimal market impact. Combined with adjustments to reserve interest and liquidity rules, the ultimate QT scale may exceed expectations, though its market effect might be less disruptive unless the Fed actively sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). While Warsh initiated a review of the Fed's policy framework, the 2% inflation target remains intact for now. The report concludes that the market may be overestimating the significance of reduced forward guidance and the near-term rate hike risk, while potentially underestimating the scope and manageable nature of the coming balance sheet reduction. The key debates will hinge on upcoming core PCE data, the specifics of the QT path, and the framework review's findings.

marsbit06/22 14:32

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

marsbit06/22 14:32

Market Trend (June 19): US-Iran Deal Drives Out Geopolitical Premium; Chip Stocks Soar to New Highs; Energy Sector Leads Declines

U.S. Market Trends (June 19): U.S.-Iran Deal Eases Tensions, Chip Stocks Soar, Energy Sector Leads Declines. U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday as the signing of a temporary U.S.-Iran deal in Geneva de-escalated Middle East tensions, with Saudi oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical relief helped markets recover from recent Fed-driven volatility. The S&P 500 rose over 1%, the Nasdaq gained nearly 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another record high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 6% to a historic peak. Chip stocks were the standout performers. Reports of an Apple-Intel design and foundry deal for certain products, alongside mentions of potential Nvidia and SpaceX collaborations with Intel, propelled the sector. Intel surged ~10.5%, while memory chip makers like Micron also saw significant gains, highlighting sustained confidence in long-term AI capital expenditure. In contrast, the energy sector was the day's sole loser, with the S&P 500 energy sub-index declining as WTI crude fell ~2% to around $74.29/barrel. The reopening of key shipping routes erased prior geopolitical risk premiums. SpaceX extended losses for a second day on news of a potential large bond offering. Market volatility (VIX) dropped sharply, indicating a swift reversal of post-Fed jitters. Treasury yields dipped slightly but remained elevated. The focus now shifts to upcoming economic data, including next week's PCE inflation report and Micron's earnings, which will serve as a key test for the AI trade's durability.

marsbit06/19 02:05

Market Trend (June 19): US-Iran Deal Drives Out Geopolitical Premium; Chip Stocks Soar to New Highs; Energy Sector Leads Declines

marsbit06/19 02:05

New Huo Research: Dense Bottom Fishing in the $60K BTC Range, a 'High Value-for-Money Zone' Sees a Handover Surge

Bitcoin has shown a significant oversold rebound this week, with extreme panic in the crypto market easing. Multiple data points indicate a notable market bottom is forming. On the market front, the net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs has continued to shrink, and the negative premium between Coinbase and USDT is steadily correcting. Industry fundamentals suggest the shutdown cost for mainstream miners is concentrated between $30,000 and $50,000, potentially solidifying a阶段性 industry cost floor—a classic signal of market bottoms in previous cycles. Institutional capital is notably positioning against the trend. For instance, Sinohope Group's weekly OTC trading volume surged over 8 times环比, with active platform users doubling, both reaching record highs. This confirms a sharp increase in large capital transaction activity and a spike in off-exchange funding demand. Sinohope Research also observed on-chain data showing that funds from entities with public company attributes and long-term "whale" wallets are actively accumulating Bitcoin around the key $60,000 price level. The research institute has maintained since mid-May that a high-value investment window has reopened, and the market is now undergoing a shift from panic selling to long-term holding. Looking ahead, the core drivers for an upward market move will be liquidity release and macro policy developments. The successful and strong performance of SpaceX's IPO has reignited market optimism, and the massive liquidity frozen during its subscription period is now being unlocked. This substantial capital is expected to seek new value opportunities, potentially flowing into currently undervalued assets like Bitcoin. On the macro and policy front, the tone set in Kevin Warsh's upcoming speech at the FOMC meeting is crucial for near-term monetary policy expectations. Furthermore, the potential passage of the CLARITY Act by late July could significantly boost institutional confidence for capital entry. Considering these bottoming signals alongside favorable liquidity and policy factors, Sinohope Research remains optimistic about the market's subsequent trajectory.

marsbit06/18 09:16

New Huo Research: Dense Bottom Fishing in the $60K BTC Range, a 'High Value-for-Money Zone' Sees a Handover Surge

marsbit06/18 09:16

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