2026-01-23 Venerdì

Centro Notizie

Ricevi notizie e tendenze di mercato in tempo reale sulle criptovalute con il Centro Notizie HTX.

Small-Cap Index Hits New High Again: Will History Predict This Crypto Bull Market?

Small-cap stock index Russell 2000 has reached a new all-time high in early 2026, sparking discussions about its historical correlation with Bitcoin bull markets. The index, which tracks 2,000 smaller U.S. companies, is seen as a gauge of risk appetite, as these firms are more sensitive to interest rate changes due to their reliance on bank financing. Historical data shows that previous breakouts in Russell 2000—in 2016 and 2020—coincided with major Bitcoin rallies. In 2016, post-halving supply constraints and improved risk appetite fueled a bull run. In 2020, massive monetary easing and institutional adoption drove Bitcoin’s surge. However, the current cycle differs. Bitcoin had already reached $100,000 by November 2024, and its post-halving gains—around 50% since April 2024—are modest compared to previous cycles (5x and 27x). Factors like institutional involvement through ETFs, reduced volatility, diminishing halving effects, and earlier price peaks may explain the slower momentum. While some analysts link Russell 2000’s performance to crypto market movements due to shared sensitivity to macro liquidity, the correlation remains speculative with only two historical instances. Notably, despite the index’s rise, small-cap ETFs saw significant outflows in 2025, and many Russell 2000 companies reported negative earnings—raising questions about the sustainability of the risk-on narrative. The article concludes that while Russell 2000’s breakout is an interesting macro indicator, it should not be used as a direct trading signal for crypto, given structural market changes and limited historical evidence.

比推2 h fa

Small-Cap Index Hits New High Again: Will History Predict This Crypto Bull Market?

比推2 h fa

活动图片