Odaily invited market analyst Conaldo, a Master of Financial Statistics from Columbia University in the United States, who focused on quantitative trading in US stocks during university and gradually expanded into digital assets such as Bitcoin. He has built a systematic quantitative trading model and risk control system through practical experience; possesses keen data insight into market fluctuations, and is committed to continuous深耕 in the professional trading field, pursuing steady returns; will delve into BTC technical, macro, and capital changes weekly, review and display practical strategies, and preview noteworthy events for reference.
Core Summary of Trading Weekly Report:
• Strategy Execution (Short-term): Last week's trading strictly followed the established strategy, completing one short-term operation (1x leverage), achieving a return of -1.07%. (See Figure 1)
• Core View (Short-term) Validation: The core view proposed last week has been precisely validated by the market. Over the past week, the coin price broke through the important resistance range of $94,500~$95,000 and is currently confirming its validity. The coin price touched $97,963, differing by less than 0.5% from the given lower bound of the resistance zone at $97,500, once again confirming our ability to judge key points.
• Market Outlook for the Coming Weeks: Is Bitcoin about to transition from a bear market to a bull market? Is the current market a rebound or a reversal? The 21-week moving average may become the market's bull-bear dividing line in the future. (Detailed explanation in Figure 4)
The following will review market predictions, strategy execution, and specific trading processes in detail.
I. Bitcoin Market Review Last Week: (01.12~01.18)
1、Last Week's Short-term Operation Review: As shown in (Figure 1)
We strictly followed the trading signals from our self-built spread trading model and momentum quantitative model, combined with predictions of market trends, and completed one short-term operation. This trade resulted in a loss of 1.07%.
Specific trade details and review are as follows:
Bitcoin 30-minute K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative model + Spread Trading model)
Figure 1
1、Trade Details Summary: (No leverage)
2、Short-term Trade Review:
• First Trade (Loss 1.07%): This operation executed Plan A (Selling Short at Resistance) strategy: When the coin price rose to the key resistance area of $94,500~$95,000 and showed signs of resistance, the spread trading model simultaneously triggered a top signal (green dot), forming a double confirmation. Accordingly, we established a 30% short position at $95,460 as planned; however, the market trend deviated from expectations, finding support near $94,500 and turning upward. When the momentum quantitative model and the spread trading model triggered a bottom signal again, we immediately stopped loss and exited at $96,493. Although this trade resulted in a loss, we strictly adhered to the operational discipline of "trading upon signal trigger, risk control first", achieving unity of knowledge and action.
2、Last Week's Trend Prediction and Operation Strategy Review:
1、Last week clearly stated: Maintain oscillation within the $84,000~$94,500 range, focusing on directional choices and effectiveness at both ends of the range.
2、Key point review: Resistance at $94,500~$95,000 area, important resistance at $97,500~$99,500附近; support at $89,500~$91,000 area.
2、Operation Strategy Review:
• Midline Strategy: If the coin price successfully breaks through and stabilizes above $94,500, close all midline positions (short positions) and hold coins观望.
• Short-term Strategy: If maintaining oscillation in the $84,000~$94,500 range, execute operations according to Plan A:
• Open Position: When rebounding to the $94,500~$95,000 area combined with model top signals, a 30% short position can be established.
• Risk Control: Initial stop loss for short positions set about 1.5% above the cost price (i.e., 1.015*cost price).
• Close Position: When falling near core support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.
II. Analyzing Bitcoin's Trend Structure from a Technical Perspective: Comprehensive Judgment Based on Multiple Models and Dimensions
Combining market movements, the author conducts an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's trend structure from multiple models and dimensions based on a self-built trading system.
Bitcoin Weekly K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model+Sentiment Quantitative Model)
Figure 2
1、As shown in (Figure 2), analysis from the weekly chart:
• Momentum Quantitative Model: Technical indicators show, continuing the pattern of previous weeks, the momentum lines are gradually converging, while the negative energy column continues to shrink. However, the current signals do not confirm a reversal of the bearish trend.
Momentum Quantitative Model indicates: Coin price decline index: High
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: Blue sentiment line value 57.17, strength zero; yellow sentiment line value 25.28, strength zero, peak value is 0.
Sentiment Quantitative Model indicates: Coin price pressure and support index: Neutral
• Digital Monitoring Model: The coin price has been below the bull-bear (yellow-blue line) dividing line for 9 weeks. Last week, the bulls once again冲击 this line, closing near below it.
Digital Monitoring Model indicates: Monitoring (top/bottom) digital signals have not appeared; weekly K-line closed with a medium阳线, gain about 2.92%.
The above data预示: Bitcoin weekly chart bearish trend, be wary of oscillation adjustment risks.
Bitcoin Daily K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model+Sentiment Quantitative Model)
Figure 3
2、As shown in (Figure 3), analysis from the daily chart:
• Momentum Quantitative Model: Last week overall showed a "first rise then fall" trend. In the first half of the week, the coin price accelerated its rebound, the momentum line stood above the zero axis, and the positive energy column rapidly expanded; but in the latter half, the energy column明显萎缩, the momentum lines趋于粘合, beginning to slowly approach the zero axis.
Momentum Quantitative Model indicates: Daily chart bullish momentum shows exhaustion, focus on the gain/loss of the zero axis.
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: After last week's daily close, blue sentiment line value 38, strength zero; yellow sentiment line value 76, strength zero.
Sentiment Quantitative Model indicates: Pressure and support index: Neutral
The above data提示: Daily level rebound continues, the market initially shows a bullish pattern, but validity needs confirmation. Next, focus on the battle between bulls and bears over the zero axis.
III. This Week's Market Prediction: (01.19~01.25)
1、This Week's Core View: Focus on the gain/loss of the $94,500~$95,000 area.
• Resistance Effective: If the coin price rebounds to this area and confirms resistance, it is expected to maintain oscillation within the $84,000~$94,500 range, with the subsequent first test target at the $89,500~$91,000 area.
• Effectively Stabilized: If it can strongly stabilize above this area, the coin price is expected to oscillate and rebound, but the height is limited.
2、Core Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Area: $94,500~$95,000 area (previous box top edge)
• Second Resistance Area: $97,500~$99,500 area (previous oscillation center)
• Important Resistance Level: $10,200附近 (near the 21-week moving average)
3、Core Support Levels:
• First Support Level: $89,500~$91,000 area (previous筹码密集成交区)
• Second Support Level: $86,000~$86,500 area (previous important support level)
• Important Support Level: $84,000附近(previous box bottom edge)
IV. This Week's Operation Strategy (Excluding Sudden News Impact): (01.19~01.25)
1、 Midline Strategy: No position, market trends may oscillate and反复,暂时持币观望.
2、 Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of position, set stop loss points, based on support and resistance levels, look for "spread" opportunities. (Using 30 minutes as the operation cycle).
3、 In operation, focus on the gain/loss of the $94,500~$95,000 area. To dynamically respond to market changes and combine real-time model signals, we have formulated two short-term operation plans A/B:
• Plan A: If the coin price stabilizes above the $94,500~$95,000 area:
• Open Position: After the coin price breaks through the $94,500~$95,000 area and shows stabilization signals, combined with model bottom signals, a 30% long position can be established.
• Risk Control: Initial stop loss for long positions set about 1.5% below the cost price (i.e., 0.985*cost price).
• Close Position: When rebounding near core resistance levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.
• Plan B: If the coin price effectively falls below the $94,500~$95,000 area:
• Open Position: If the rebound confirms an effective break below this area, a 30% short position can be established.
• Risk Control: Initial stop loss for short positions set about 1.5% above the cost price (i.e., 1.015*cost price).
• Close Position: When falling near $86,500 combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.
Bitcoin Weekly K-line Chart: Comparative Analysis of Historical Trend Structures (2021.11 VS 2025.10)
Figure 4
Note: In the above figure, 21-week moving average (white), 84-week moving average (green)
V. How Will History Repeat Itself? Comparing the Similarities and Differences of Two Rounds of Weekly Level Adjustments and Their Implications:
In summary, we can extract the following core insights:
1、The current weekly level is in a bearish trend, which limits the space for daily rebounds.
2、In the coming weeks, whether the coin price can effectively break through and stabilize above the 21-week moving average will become the focus of market attention. If the coin price fails to form an effective breakthrough when rebounding to this moving average, the market may重现 the pattern of historical adjustments, even falling below the $80,000 mark.
3、Whether the weekly level MACD indicator can show signs of stopping下跌 and stabilizing, and the momentum line effectively crosses above the zero axis, becomes a key basis for judging whether the market trend has reversed.
VI. Special Tips:
1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop loss level.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop loss to the opening cost price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop loss to the position of 1% profit.
4. Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit the coin price makes, move the stop loss level同步 by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in profits.
Financial markets change rapidly, all market analysis and trading strategies need to be adjusted dynamically. All views, analytical models, and operational strategies involved in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, for personal trading log purposes only, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market has risks, investment needs to be cautious, DYOR.
