Has Bitcoin Bottomed, or Is a 'Shakeout' Approaching? What's the Situation with XRP?

The cryptocurrency analytics platform Santiment has shared crucial signals regarding the Bitcoin and altcoin markets in its latest analysis, which evaluates recent market trends and blockchain data.

According to Santiment analysts, the decline in Bitcoin's 365-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio to -26% indicates significant losses for long-term investors, while historical data suggests the formation of bottoms and opportunities for long-term buying.

A detailed analysis of the MVRV data provided by Santiment shows that the average loss for investors who have held Bitcoin over the past year is approximately 26%. Looking at historical cycles (such as the 2018 bear market bottom and the March 2020 crash), it can be seen that this level of MVRV, falling deep into negative territory, corresponds to periods when long-term risk decreases and the search for a bottom intensifies. Although the short-term 30-day MVRV is fluctuating around the breakeven point at +1.1%, analysts add that while there is no clear directional signal in the short term, the current annual perspective represents a bottom before bullish cycles.

Blockchain data reveals significant differences in investor behavior based on wallet size. Large wallet holders, owning between 10 and 10,000 $BTC, have continued their accumulation trend, adding approximately 18,500 $BTC over the past 10 days. On the other hand, holders of wallets with smaller amounts of $BTC (retail investors) continue to buy on dips; however, analysts warn that such high demand from retail investors can sometimes create the risk of a final "correction" or "shakeout."

The altcoin market presents a mixed picture. Ethereum's 365-day market value fluctuates around -33%, but its recovery over the past month, combined with overly optimistic investor sentiment on social media, carries the risk of a short-term correction. XRP, on the other hand, is in the oversold zone with a 30-day market value of -57.5% and a 365-day market value of -45.5%, signaling a strong rebound potential in the medium and long term. Social media activity and optimism are growing for Solana, while investor sentiment remains calmer regarding Cardano.

The future direction for Bitcoin and altcoins is determined not only by on-chain metrics but also by macroeconomic and regulatory changes. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision and upcoming policy decisions heighten expectations for market volatility, while uncertainty surrounding the approval process for the Clarity Act in the US Congress continues to pressure pricing.

*This is not investment advice.