NVIDIA's latest earnings report has once again shocked the market. Management indicated that revenue growth for FY2028 could exceed 70%, far surpassing Wall Street's consensus expectation of around 45%. Institutions including J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bernstein are unanimously bullish, with some analysts boldly predicting that reaching $1 trillion in revenue by FY2029 is "not impossible." With the next-generation chip platform Vera Rubin about to enter mass production, accelerating demand coupled with supply constraints suggests the current guidance might be a conservative figure. NVIDIA has once again shaken the market with better-than-expected results, presenting a long-term outlook that forces Wall Street to reprice the stock.
In its latest earnings call, the company forecasted that revenue growth for the fiscal year ending in January 2028 could be more than 70%, significantly higher than the market consensus of approximately 45% previously estimated by FactSet. This forward guidance was described by TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter as a "potential key catalyst for the stock," directly fueling a 8.7% surge in NVIDIA's share price on Thursday—its biggest single-day gain since May 2024. At the close, NVIDIA's market capitalization reached $5.49 trillion, with a single-day increase of $441.5 billion, marking the company's second-largest single-day market cap gain on record.
Even more notably, some analysts are looking further ahead. In a research note, Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold wrote that it "seems plausible" for NVIDIA to achieve $1 trillion in revenue for the fiscal year ending in January 2029, while the FactSet consensus as of Wednesday estimated revenue for that year at under $750 billion.
70% Growth Guidance: A Conservative Forecast Under Supply Constraints
NVIDIA management explicitly stated during the earnings call that the 70% growth forecast already factors in supply tightness, and that the actual figure would be higher if not for supply bottlenecks. J.P. Morgan also noted that while the guidance already far exceeded expectations, it might still be conservative, as the company clearly characterized the current phase as "supply-constrained," and actual demand momentum would be significantly stronger without these constraints.
Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider believes that if NVIDIA continues collaborating with tech companies to advance data center construction and further narrows the gap between customer demand and supply, the company could outperform its guidance in FY2028.
Regarding gross margin, NVIDIA expects some compression for the remainder of the current fiscal year but forecasts stability in the 72% to 73% range for the next fiscal year. Simon Leopold views this level, while below recent highs, as sufficient to dispel market pessimism, noting that given rising memory chip prices and intensified competition from custom chips, this guidance range is "better than worst-case expectations."
Rubin Platform & Ecosystem Moat: Multiple Growth Engines Taking Shape
Buchalter interprets this guidance as a "strong signal of confidence" from NVIDIA in its business visibility, against the backdrop of the company's next-generation chip platform, Vera Rubin, entering mass production. Vera Rubin is NVIDIA's next AI chip platform following Blackwell.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon stated that NVIDIA's July-quarter results "should remind investors why they own this stock." In his note, he pointed out that demand is accelerating, and this trend coincides with the Rubin platform becoming the "largest upcoming product cycle" in NVIDIA's history.
Rasgon also emphasized that NVIDIA's balance sheet is becoming "as much of a moat as its technology." The company not only locks in customers for products worth hundreds of billions through equity investments and revenue-sharing agreements but can also "support and grow the ecosystem around its products."
Simon Leopold believes that in terms of revenue contribution, Vera Rubin chip revenue itself is expected to reach about 20% of data center revenue in Q3. Meanwhile, Groq 3 LPX is already in full production and will begin mass shipments later this quarter, with emerging cloud service provider Nebius among the first adopters. The production ramp-up for both Rubin and the LPU is faster than previously modeled, leading to upward revisions in related estimates.
Simon Leopold further noted that NVIDIA's progress in the CPU business is also exceeding expectations. The rolling revenue for Grace CPU over the past twelve months has surpassed $5 billion, and the next-generation product, Vera CPU, is now in full production. Based on order patterns, NVIDIA's CPU business has reached an annualized revenue scale of $20 billion. With continued supply improvements, CPU revenue could more than double in FY28.
Wall Street Bull-Bear Divide Persists, But Bulls Accumulate More Credence
Despite NVIDIA's strong performance boosting bullish confidence, market divergence hasn't fully dissipated. Buchalter admits that NVIDIA's strategy of providing financing support to ecosystem partners "is unlikely to convince the bears," but he personally holds a "constructive" view on the sustainability of diversified AI infrastructure spending and NVIDIA's role as the "core enabler."
Overall, Buchalter believes this earnings report yielded "more net points for the bulls," and bluntly stated that NVIDIA's stock price is "meaningfully undervalued." Goldman's Schneider added that this outlook "may alleviate investor concerns over high capital expenditure costs."
Analysts estimate NVIDIA's revenue for the current fiscal year will reach $403.5 billion. From the current fiscal year to the $1 trillion target, whether NVIDIA can transform supply constraints into release capacity will be the key variable determining whether this expectation can be realized.
