Why This Bitcoin Bear Market Is Among The Worst Ever: CryptoQuant Researcher

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-02-09Last updated on 2026-02-09

Abstract

A CryptoQuant researcher, Julio Moreno, indicates the current Bitcoin bear market is one of the worst in recent history based on the 365-day simple moving average (SMA). Bitcoin's price is currently 30% below this key metric, a deeper decline than in the 2014 and 2018 bear markets at a similar stage, though not as severe as the 60% drop witnessed in 2022. This highlights the asset's continued high volatility. For a market turnaround, improved demand is necessary, but capital outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs signal ongoing challenges. Despite a recent 2% rise, Bitcoin's price remains around $70,500, nearly 45% below its all-time high.

The price of Bitcoin is nearly 45% away from its all-time high of $126,080, reflecting a worsening market climate over the past few months. One of the indicators that confirmed the emergence of the bear market was the breach of the 365-day moving average to the downside late last year. Using this metric, a prominent crypto researcher has come forward with an evaluation that shows how the current Bitcoin bear market compares to the past ones.

BTC Price Is 30% Below 365-Day Moving Average

In a new post on the social media platform X, CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, revealed that the current bear market performance compares to the ones seen in Bitcoin’s recent history. The indicator in focus in this analysis is the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) on the BTC price chart.

Moreno defined the start of the bear market as the moment when the price of Bitcoin crossed below the 365-day SMA. According to the on-chain expert, the premier cryptocurrency is down by 30% so far in the current phase, making it one of the worst bear seasons in recent times.

Source: @jjcmoreno on X

As observed in the chart above, the Bitcoin price is deeper than it is often seen at this stage of the bear market. During the 2014 bear market, the flagship cryptocurrency was barely down by 20% at this current stage of the season.

The same could be said for the 2018 bear season, which was more around the 20% market at this stage. However, the price of Bitcoin might have succumbed to greater pressure during the 2022 season, as the market leader was down from its 365-day moving average by nearly 60% at this stage of the cycle.

This trend is especially interesting, considering that Bitcoin is believed to have matured as an asset class. However, the world’s largest cryptocurrency still appears to witness incredible levels of volatility at the beginning of the bear market.

While it is unclear when the Bitcoin price will reach a bottom, certain conditions need to be met for a turnaround to occur. One of these conditions is the apparent demand metric, which has continued to worsen over the past few weeks. As seen in the outflow numbers of the US-based Bitcoin ETFs, capital constraints have been a major issue for the premier cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $70,500, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

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Related Questions

QAccording to the CryptoQuant researcher, what indicator was used to define the start of the current Bitcoin bear market?

AThe breach of the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) to the downside.

QHow far is the current Bitcoin price below its 365-day moving average, making this one of the worst bear markets?

AIt is down by 30% below its 365-day moving average.

QWhich previous bear market saw Bitcoin's price down by nearly 60% from its 365-day moving average at a similar stage?

AThe 2022 bear market.

QWhat is one of the key conditions mentioned that needs to be met for a market turnaround?

AAn improvement in the demand metric, which has been worsening.

QWhat is the current price of Bitcoin and its 24-hour performance as mentioned in the article?

AThe price is around $70,500, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours.

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