How Likely is it for TradeXYZ to Go Solo from Hyperliquid?

marsbitPublished on 2026-08-03Last updated on 2026-08-03

Abstract

The article analyzes the possibility of TradeXYZ, a dominant project on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 real-world asset (RWA) perpetual contracts market, splitting off to build its own independent trading platform. With TradeXYZ commanding over 90% of HIP-3 volume and over 35% of Hyperliquid's total open interest, its leverage and influence are significant. The primary motive for a split is seen as capturing the underlying protocol fees, of which TradeXYZ currently receives only half. However, several factors strongly discourage such a move. First, replicating Hyperliquid's high-performance infrastructure would be challenging and could degrade TradeXYZ's product quality. Second, Hyperliquid serves as a crucial distribution channel, with most users accessing TradeXYZ's liquidity through its frontend. Third, the close, trusting relationship between the founders of both projects makes a hostile "betrayal" unlikely. The conclusion is that a split would likely result in a lose-lose scenario. Hyperliquid would lose its main growth narrative and see its valuation impacted, while TradeXYZ would face immense technical hurdles, lose its primary user channel, and damage its reputation. Instead of a full separation, the more probable path is for TradeXYZ to negotiate better terms while deepening integration, focusing on enhancing its own brand and user ownership.

Author | Golem, Odaily Planet Daily

As TradeXYZ's business scale continues to expand, and it consistently occupies over 90% of the Hyperliquid HIP-3 market share, recent community discussions about the possibility of TradeXYZ breaking away from Hyperliquid to independently build its own trading platform have been intensifying.

Former Messari researcher Sam posted on the X platform, stating that as an investor bullish on HYPE due to the explosion of the RWA perpetual contract market, one should ask themselves three questions: First, if TradeXYZ leaves Hyperliquid and launches its own exchange, where will users go to trade; Second, what impact would TradeXYZ launching its own stock/token have on HYPE's valuation; Third, how high is the probability of the above two scenarios actually happening.

This post garnered over 470,000 views in just a few days. The reason for the rapid rise in discussion around this question is essentially that more and more market participants are beginning to realize that within the cooperative relationship between TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid, the value contribution of both parties is changing, with TradeXYZ gradually accumulating stronger market influence and bargaining power compared to Hyperliquid.

In business collaborations, once one party gradually gains more resources and market voice, and the distribution of benefits between the two becomes significantly skewed, "betrayal" often occurs.

A recent example comes from the AI industry. Cursor was once the largest programming AI Coding tool on the market, built on the underlying Claude model from Anthropic. They were a "golden duo" in terms of cooperation, until Anthropic made a betrayal—launching Claude Code, a direct competitor to Cursor. By mid-2026, Claude Code's ARR officially surpassed Cursor's, pushing it off the table.

The blockchain industry also has similar examples. When a single product becomes large, it often breaks away from its original infrastructure to build its own chain ecosystem, such as Uniswap, dYdX, etc. This cycle's hottest project, Polymarket, has also been rumored multiple times to be leaving the existing Polygon infrastructure to build independent infrastructure.

Returning to the current question, how likely is it for TradeXYZ to leave Hyperliquid and go its own way? If this situation were to actually happen, what impact would it have on both Hyperliquid and TradeXYZ? Odaily Planet Daily will provide a brief analysis in this article.

Is Going Solo Inevitable?

A phenomenon exists in the blockchain industry where projects start and grow on a public chain or infrastructure, and then later choose to build their own independent infrastructure (L2 or independent L1) for reasons of performance, control, underlying fee capture, or a bigger narrative for financing. TradeXYZ has indeed grown large enough now.

According to flowscan data, as of now, the total trading volume on Hyperliquid HIP-3 exceeds $469.62 billion, with TradeXYZ contributing over $437.4 billion, accounting for 93%; as of the time of writing, the total open interest (OI) on Hyperliquid HIP-3 reached $3.9 billion, with TradeXYZ contributing over $3.8 billion, accounting for 99.7%.

Total Hyperliquid HIP-3 Trading Volume and TradeXYZ's Share

The combined market share of the remaining trading platforms doesn't even reach 10%. The HIP-3 market has formed a massive Matthew Effect. Looking at it this way, it's not an exaggeration to say that the Hyperliquid HIP-3 market is completely dominated by TradeXYZ. The narrative premium that RWA on-chain contracts development has brought to Hyperliquid is, in essence, the narrative premium that TradeXYZ has brought to Hyperliquid.

Whether from a valuation or protocol revenue perspective, TradeXYZ has long been far from optional for Hyperliquid. Instead, it plays a crucial role in carrying the banner in the current situation where the crypto market is sluggish and trading volume for crypto derivatives like Bitcoin is shrinking.

According to official data, the HIP-3 share of Hyperliquid's total trading volume has reached 71.92%, setting a new historical high. Based on TradeXYZ's dominant position in HIP-3, this means that TradeXYZ's contributed trading volume accounts for over 70% of Hyperliquid's total trading volume; the HIP-3 share of Hyperliquid's total OI reaches 36%, which similarly means that TradeXYZ's contributed OI accounts for over 35% of Hyperliquid's total OI.

HIP-3's Share of Hyperliquid's Total Trading Volume and Total OI

Therefore, TradeXYZ has already grown into a behemoth capable of influencing traditional financial markets, leveraging Hyperliquid's infrastructure. Now, within its cooperative relationship with Hyperliquid, its leverage, influence, and voice are also beginning to dominate. So, should the grown child go its own way? Under what triggering factors might TradeXYZ choose to build its own infrastructure?

Setting aside unpredictable capital operation factors like financing and token issuance, and looking purely from a practical business perspective, if TradeXYZ truly chooses to go solo, the most likely reason would be to capture the underlying transaction fees.

In Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market, the trading fee split between TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid is a fixed 50/50. Furthermore, because the standard trading fee for HIP-3 assets is twice that of the core perp market, Hyperliquid's actual protocol fee per HIP-3 transaction is the same as from the core perp market.

According to statistics, as of the time of writing, TradeXYZ has generated close to $50 million in total fee revenue. Under the stipulated split ratio for HIP-3, TradeXYZ can take at most $25 million.

Fees Generated by TradeXYZ

It's hard to imagine that a project which has created over $400 billion in trading volume has a total revenue less than one ten-thousandth of its total volume. Giving away nearly half of its revenue is unbearable for most projects. Given TradeXYZ's current leverage and influence over Hyperliquid, it is entirely possible for it to negotiate with Hyperliquid to change the revenue split to 70/30 or higher. If a satisfactory agreement cannot be reached, TradeXYZ is very likely to embark on the path of going solo.

Why Wouldn't TradeXYZ Leave?

Of course, going solo has its appeal for TradeXYZ, but there are also constraints.

The first constraint is Hyperliquid's powerful performance. TradeXYZ's perpetual contracts are deployed on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 platform, where matching, order types, funds, liquidation, and automatic deleveraging are all managed by HyperCore. Technically, TradeXYZ only manages oracle prices, mark prices, external prices, and related components.

If TradeXYZ chooses to go solo, they would need to assemble their own team to build the underlying infrastructure. This itself is not a difficult problem, but building an L1 with performance as powerful as Hyperliquid's in a short time is a challenge. Even TradeXYZ founder Shoku himself has admitted the excellence of the Hyperliquid team. In March 2024, Shoku posted on X, saying he wasn't sure how big Hyperliquid could ultimately become as an L1 in terms of traditional metrics like TVL and trading volume, but he was completely certain that the quality and rigor of Hyperliquid's on-chain products and dApps would have no rivals across the entire crypto space.

These rivals naturally include himself. If the infrastructure TradeXYZ builds upon going solo cannot compete with Hyperliquid, it would negatively impact its product experience and the narrative of providing price discovery earlier than traditional financial markets.

The second constraint is that channels and distribution are also crucial. Why is Circle willing to give away over 50% of USDC's savings interest to Coinbase? The reason is that Coinbase has indeed made tremendous contributions to the market distribution and promotion of USDC. According to Coinbase's latest Q2 financial report, over 30% of circulating USDC is stored on Coinbase. Whoever controls the channels and distribution controls everything. This rule also applies between TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid.

In essence, Hyperliquid's frontend is just one interface to access TradeXYZ's liquidity markets, but it's not the only way. Users can currently also access TradeXYZ's liquidity markets directly through the TradeXYZ official website, and the trading interface is highly similar to Hyperliquid's. To further facilitate users, TradeXYZ's internal accounts are even interoperable with Hyperliquid's, meaning that connecting the same wallet on the TradeXYZ website allows direct use of any balance from Hyperliquid.

TradeXYZ's Own Trading Frontend

Nevertheless, among TradeXYZ's over 350,000 trading users, most still access TradeXYZ's liquidity markets through Hyperliquid's frontend. This is a user habit cultivated over time and is not easy to change. There might even be a certain proportion of trading users who don't even distinguish between TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid, simply trusting the Hyperliquid brand and passively choosing to trade TradeXYZ's products.

Therefore, Hyperliquid not only provides technical support for TradeXYZ but is also the main channel for distributing TradeXYZ's liquidity. The cost and time of building infrastructure can be calculated, but the value lost from losing a channel is immeasurable.

The third constraint is the inherent trust and "childhood friendship" between the founders of the two projects. Solana's well-known KOL Ansem believes the possibility of TradeXYZ going solo is almost zero, reasoning that tradexyz and Hyperliquid are the most compatible teams in the cryptocurrency space. "The two founders show no signs of greed and are both very smart. I believe they can choose a development path that is most beneficial for both teams."

This statement is not without merit. Shoku was one of the earliest investors to bet on Hyperliquid. As early as 2023, Shoku connected with Jeff and began contributing to the Hyperliquid ecosystem. In 2024, he developed the Hyperliquid Bitcoin cross-chain bridge, Unit. He once told friends that Hyperliquid was one of the few exciting things in the crypto world.

All signs indicate that Shoku deeply admires Hyperliquid and Jeff. From a personal relationship perspective, the likelihood of a "betrayal" is low.

If TradeXYZ Goes Solo, the Result is Lose-Lose

If we are to discuss this topic thoroughly, this article shouldn't end here. We should also discuss a low-probability event: what would the outcome be if TradeXYZ truly broke away from Hyperliquid and went solo? The answer I deduced is a lose-lose situation.

Because in the current state, TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid have a win-win situation. If TradeXYZ splits, the enormous uncertainty will harm both parties. After TradeXYZ goes solo, Hyperliquid could certainly support other HIP-3 market participants, but it would turn from a collaborator with TradeXYZ into a competitor. This wouldn't have too much impact on Hyperliquid's revenue because over 70% of Hyperliquid's main revenue still comes from the core Perp market; the HIP-3 market only accounts for a small portion. The biggest impact would be on its valuation.

First, after TradeXYZ migrates, Hyperliquid's total trading volume would decrease by over 50%, and HYPE might also be halved. This is because Hyperliquid would no longer be the leading on-chain RWA perpetual contract trading platform. Instead, it would be redefined as a crypto derivatives trading platform that has lost its biggest growth driver and narrative foundation.

TradeXYZ itself wouldn't fare much better. Both infrastructure and user habits would need to be cultivated from scratch. The aforementioned performance and channel issues become the biggest constraints on TradeXYZ's development. Moreover, such a betrayal could very likely trigger public controversy, further damaging TradeXYZ's credibility.

Additionally, TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid are not just competing with each other; the entire RWA trading market has other competitors. "When the snipe and the clam grapple, the fisherman profits." Hyperliquid would need time to cultivate new HIP-3 markets, and TradeXYZ would need time to build its infrastructure. By the time they look back, the market gap would have already been filled by other competitors.

In summary, although TradeXYZ is becoming increasingly important to Hyperliquid, going solo is clearly irrational. Even if TradeXYZ wants to increase profitability, the best approach might be to gradually shift focus towards its own issuance and user ownership while preserving the advantages of its existing integration with Hyperliquid.

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While the concept of Agent S is fundamentally innovative, specific information about its creator remains elusive. The creator is currently unknown, which highlights either the nascent stage of the project or the strategic choice to keep founding members under wraps. Regardless of anonymity, the focus remains on the framework's capabilities and potential. Who are the Investors of Agent S? As Agent S is relatively new in the cryptographic ecosystem, detailed information regarding its investors and financial backers is not explicitly documented. The lack of publicly available insights into the investment foundations or organisations supporting the project raises questions about its funding structure and development roadmap. Understanding the backing is crucial for gauging the project's sustainability and potential market impact. How Does Agent S Work? At the core of Agent S lies cutting-edge technology that enables it to function effectively in diverse settings. Its operational model is built around several key features: Human-like Computer Interaction: The framework offers advanced AI planning, striving to make interactions with computers more intuitive. By mimicking human behaviour in tasks execution, it promises to elevate user experiences. Narrative Memory: Employed to leverage high-level experiences, Agent S utilises narrative memory to keep track of task histories, thereby enhancing its decision-making processes. Episodic Memory: This feature provides users with step-by-step guidance, allowing the framework to offer contextual support as tasks unfold. Support for OpenACI: With the ability to run locally, Agent S allows users to maintain control over their interactions and workflows, aligning with the decentralised ethos of Web3. Easy Integration with External APIs: Its versatility and compatibility with various AI platforms ensure that Agent S can fit seamlessly into existing technological ecosystems, making it an appealing choice for developers and organisations. These functionalities collectively contribute to Agent S's unique position within the crypto space, as it automates complex, multi-step tasks with minimal human intervention. As the project evolves, its potential applications in Web3 could redefine how digital interactions unfold. Timeline of Agent S The development and milestones of Agent S can be encapsulated in a timeline that highlights its significant events: September 27, 2024: The concept of Agent S was launched in a comprehensive research paper titled “An Open Agentic Framework that Uses Computers Like a Human,” showcasing the groundwork for the project. October 10, 2024: The research paper was made publicly available on arXiv, offering an in-depth exploration of the framework and its performance evaluation based on the OSWorld benchmark. October 12, 2024: A video presentation was released, providing a visual insight into the capabilities and features of Agent S, further engaging potential users and investors. These markers in the timeline not only illustrate the progress of Agent S but also indicate its commitment to transparency and community engagement. Key Points About Agent S As the Agent S framework continues to evolve, several key attributes stand out, underscoring its innovative nature and potential: Innovative Framework: Designed to provide an intuitive use of computers akin to human interaction, Agent S brings a novel approach to task automation. Autonomous Interaction: The ability to interact autonomously with computers through GUI signifies a leap towards more intelligent and efficient computing solutions. Complex Task Automation: With its robust methodology, it can automate complex, multi-step tasks, making processes faster and less error-prone. Continuous Improvement: The learning mechanisms enable Agent S to improve from past experiences, continually enhancing its performance and efficacy. Versatility: Its adaptability across different operating environments like OSWorld and WindowsAgentArena ensures that it can serve a broad range of applications. As Agent S positions itself in the Web3 and crypto landscape, its potential to enhance interaction capabilities and automate processes signifies a significant advancement in AI technologies. Through its innovative framework, Agent S exemplifies the future of digital interactions, promising a more seamless and efficient experience for users across various industries. Conclusion Agent S represents a bold leap forward in the marriage of AI and Web3, with the capacity to redefine how we interact with technology. While still in its early stages, the possibilities for its application are vast and compelling. Through its comprehensive framework addressing critical challenges, Agent S aims to bring autonomous interactions to the forefront of the digital experience. As we move deeper into the realms of cryptocurrency and decentralisation, projects like Agent S will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the future of technology and human-computer collaboration.

956 Total ViewsPublished 2025.01.14Updated 2025.01.14

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