US stocks are once again having their moment in the sun, while Bitcoin, as it has all year, remains on the sidelines. The reasons for this are not yet obvious.
In August, the S&P 500 index rose by 3.12%, increasing market capitalization by approximately $2.1 trillion and bringing the total value to a record $70.5 trillion, with the index at 7723 points. The Nasdaq and Dow indices also show growth. By all measures, Wall Street is in active risk-on mode.
Bitcoin is not following this example, even though after the COVID-19 crash in early 2020, it most often followed stocks. This month, the currency has risen by only 2%, trading around $64,600, remaining precisely at the same level it has been for several weeks.
Part of Bitcoin's low returns is explained by the fact that the stock market rally is driven mainly by the specific dynamics of AI-related stocks, not by a broad macroeconomic impulse that encourages the growth of risk assets like $BTC.
Of course, some macroeconomic factors, such as falling oil prices and hopes for a return to normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, are positive for all risk assets. But they primarily benefit stocks.
The drop in oil prices following the opening of the Strait of Hormuz could benefit both markets, but through different channels. Stocks receive a relatively immediate benefit from reduced business costs.
For Bitcoin, the effect manifests through inflation expectations, and then through Federal Reserve policy. This takes longer, and the outlook for September remains uncertain, says Adam Haems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group.
The cryptocurrency market also faces its own problems that may limit growth. These include the $130 million Coldcard hack and reports of Bitcoin sales by Strategy company.
Rising bond yields create additional headwinds for cryptocurrencies, leading to capital outflows via stablecoins. The supply of the leading dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has fallen to its lowest level since 2025.
The HCN Capital Flow Insight index rose to 67.9, adding 0.8 points since the last update. The market is in the Greed zone. The average yield on stablecoins remains 2.9 p.p. above the effective Fed rate, the TVL of the largest protocols decreased by 0.3%, 43 $BTC were deposited to exchanges, and miners are holding $BTC, which is a bullish signal.
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