Bitcoin ($BTC) has lost about 2% in price over the week. As of 16:00 Moscow time on August 17, it is trading around $63.5k — within the $62k–$65k range, outside of which it has barely ventured since the beginning of the month.
Experts told "RBC-Crypto" what is currently influencing cryptocurrency movements, which events could serve as a signal for growth, and what levels the Bitcoin price could reach in the coming days.
What is holding back cryptocurrency growth
The macroeconomic backdrop has become slightly softer: the market no longer expects the US Federal Reserve to tighten policy quickly, which usually supports demand for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, says independent IT consultant Roman Nekrasov. According to him, this is a positive factor for Bitcoin, but alone it is not enough to quickly return the price to the upper boundary of the summer range. The peak was in early June when $BTC traded around $73k.
The expert noted that the main gauge of sentiment remains capital flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He explained that when funds show net inflows, the market gets a signal that institutional investors are ready to increase risk again. When there are outflows, as has been the case in recent days, it is harder for buyers to break through the nearest resistance levels and consolidate above them.
At the end of July — beginning of August, inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs seemed to have recovered, but by the end of last week, the net weekly outflow amounted to about $389 million, according to SoSoValue data. Investors have once again begun withdrawing capital from crypto funds.
Altcoins also looked weak last week: Ethereum lost about 1%, Solana — 2%, XRP — 3%, noted managing partner of VG GROUP Vagiz Nurullov. According to him, the market remains extremely selective: Hyperliquid (HYPE) became one of the few large assets showing confident growth, adding about 9% over the week. Capital is concentrating in individual strong narratives, while the majority of the market continues to move following Bitcoin, the expert added.
What else is putting pressure on the Bitcoin price
Additional pressure on the leading cryptocurrency's price is exerted by the actions of Michael Saylor's company, MicroStrategy, Nurullov reminded. The largest corporate holder of cryptocurrency has been reducing its Bitcoin position for four consecutive weeks, after which, from August 10 to 16, it made no sales but also made no purchases. The company's reserves remained at 840,447 $BTC with an average purchase price of $75,385 per coin.
The lack of progress in cryptocurrency regulation in the US was also a negative factor, the expert said. The Senate went on recess, postponing the CLARITY Act market regulation bill, and a meeting of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on new rules for capital raising by crypto projects was canceled.
"Several potential summer drivers — ETF inflows, softer Fed policy, and regulatory changes — have so far failed to return a sustained upward impulse to the market," said Nurullov.
What will happen to the Bitcoin price
According to experts, in the coming week, market attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and ETF dynamics. For Bitcoin, the key support remains the $61k–$62k zone, and for a return to growth, consolidation above $66k–$67k is necessary, believes Nurullov. In his assessment, until this happens, the baseline scenario remains a continuation of sideways movement with increased volatility.
In Nekrasov's opinion, the main range for $BTC in the coming days is $60k–$66k, with a continuation of the sideways movement most likely. There is no panic in the market, but there are also no grounds for a sustained rally yet, the analyst says.
If Bitcoin manages to consolidate above $64k–$65k, then an attempt to move towards $67k is possible. But to test $68k–$70k, the market needs sustained ETF inflows, a calm external backdrop, and dovish signals from the Fed, Nekrasov clarified.
However, if Bitcoin fails to hold above $62k, the pressure could intensify, and then the market could quite quickly return to testing $60k, the expert believes.
"If the external backdrop sharply worsens, a short-term dip to the $58k–$59k area cannot be ruled out, but for now, this is more of a risk than a primary target for the market. It is more likely that the market will remain in sideways movement around current levels until a new catalyst for a breakout from the range appears," concluded Nekrasov.
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