# Fed Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Bitcoin Begins an Independent Market Move: Is This a Rebound or a Reversal?

Bitcoin has begun to show independent price action, rebounding from around $57,742 to surpass $60,000. This move was initially triggered by comments from Federal Reserve officials downplaying inflation risks and was subsequently amplified by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, which reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes. The rally was further fueled by a short squeeze, with approximately $281 million in short positions being liquidated as the price climbed. This created buying pressure and accelerated the upward move. Altcoins, particularly Ethereum and Solana, have also participated in the rally, indicating a broader, though not yet euphoric, risk-on sentiment returning to the crypto market. However, several key indicators suggest caution. The recovery is not yet a confirmed trend reversal. Despite the price rebound, the options market still shows a high premium for downside protection, implying traders remain wary. The short squeeze itself provides a temporary boost but requires sustained buying from spot markets, such as ETFs, to maintain momentum. Furthermore, Bitcoin's trajectory remains sensitive to macroeconomic data; any resurgence in inflation concerns or a shift to a more hawkish Fed stance could quickly reverse recent gains.

marsbit3h ago

Bitcoin Begins an Independent Market Move: Is This a Rebound or a Reversal?

marsbit3h ago

Bitcoin Rebounds As Softer Jobs Data Lifts Rate-Cut Hopes

Bitcoin rebounded as softer U.S. jobs data strengthened market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The report indicated a cooling labor market, which could make rate reductions easier to justify if inflation remains manageable. Lower rates typically support risk assets like Bitcoin by improving liquidity expectations and reducing the appeal of cash. However, the positive macro sentiment must contend with ongoing supply-side pressures for Bitcoin. These include large BTC transfers from government wallets and upcoming Mt. Gox repayments, which have made traders sensitive to potential selling pressure. While the market is currently viewing the weak jobs data as supportive, the sustainability of this rally will be tested if significant coin movements toward exchanges occur or if Fed officials push back against aggressive rate-cut forecasts.

bitcoinist6h ago

Bitcoin Rebounds As Softer Jobs Data Lifts Rate-Cut Hopes

bitcoinist6h ago

Bitcoin Rebounds to $64k as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Plummet?

Bitcoin rebounded strongly this week, climbing back above $60,000 and briefly touching $64,000. This recovery followed a significant drop after the U.S. presidential election, with the market now closely watching Federal Reserve policy signals. The key trigger was a weaker-than-expected June U.S. jobs report, showing only 57,000 new jobs versus an expected 115,000. While the unemployment rate fell, analysts noted concerning details like declining labor force participation. However, wage growth accelerated to 3.5% year-over-year, sustaining inflation concerns. Market focus has shifted to the upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Analysts expect a monthly decline in overall prices, partly due to falling gasoline costs. This has led traders to reduce bets on further Fed rate hikes this year, with markets now pricing in a high probability of rates holding steady at the July meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent comments about easing inflation risks have further supported this dovish shift. The anticipation of lower borrowing costs and a weaker dollar is seen as supportive for risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin. Some investors are positioning for a potential Fed policy pivot to easing later this year, which could benefit "devaluation trades" including cryptocurrencies. Looking ahead, Bitcoin's price trajectory remains highly sensitive to U.S. economic data—particularly jobs and inflation reports—and evolving Fed policy expectations. Other critical factors include institutional ETF flows and geopolitical developments. Analysts suggest that if these factors improve, the recent sell-off could be seen as a buying opportunity; otherwise, high volatility may persist until a solid price floor is established.

marsbit7h ago

Bitcoin Rebounds to $64k as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Plummet?

marsbit7h ago

Bitcoin may not be done capitulating – Why a $50K bottom is still in play

Bitcoin faces potential further downside toward $50,000 despite long-term holder (LTH) resilience. Currently, LTHs control a record 78% of supply and are accumulating rather than selling during the downturn, diverging from historical capitulation patterns seen at market bottoms. However, with BTC posting seven consecutive monthly losses—short of the nine that marked prior cycle bottoms in 2018 and 2022—the capitulation phase may not be over. Shifting macroeconomic expectations, with markets pricing in potential Fed rate hikes instead of cuts, add pressure. If history repeats, LTH capitulation could trigger a final washout, driving Bitcoin toward $50,000 by Q3's end before a durable bottom forms.

ambcrypto12h ago

Bitcoin may not be done capitulating – Why a $50K bottom is still in play

ambcrypto12h ago

Bitcoin Rebounds to $64,000 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Plummet?

Bitcoin has rebounded to over $64,000 after hitting a multi-year low, recovering from earlier sell-offs partly linked to political uncertainty in the US. The rebound follows a weak US June jobs report, which showed far fewer new jobs added than expected, though wage growth remained firm. This mixed data has led markets to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, with expectations for further rate hikes diminishing. Analysts highlight that upcoming inflation data, particularly the June CPI report, will be critical in shaping Fed policy under new Chair Kevin Wash. While some view the weak jobs data as potentially paving the way for monetary easing—supporting risk assets like Bitcoin—others caution that persistent economic resilience could delay rate cuts and pressure crypto markets. Overall, Bitcoin's near-term trajectory is seen as highly sensitive to US economic indicators, Fed policy signals, ETF flows, and geopolitical developments.

Foresight NewsYesterday 09:02

Bitcoin Rebounds to $64,000 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Plummet?

Foresight NewsYesterday 09:02

After Close Observation of Wash, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist Insists: The Fed Will Not Raise Rates This Year

After close observation of Federal Reserve Chair Wash, Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist, asserts that the Fed will not raise interest rates this year. Following Wash's speech at the ECB's Sintra forum, Carpenter notes a marginal dovish shift: Wash now more clearly balances the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, rather than focusing nearly exclusively on inflation. Importantly, Wash highlighted that the latest policy meeting (coinciding with falling oil prices) has already lowered market inflation expectations and term premiums, signaling no urgency for a July rate hike. Carpenter's view is supported by data. Recent non-farm payroll figures provide room for the Fed to remain patient. Morgan Stanley's inflation forecasts are below the median FOMC projection, and methodological revisions to PCE inflation could further lower readings. These factors make Carpenter "comfortable" with the call for no hikes in 2024. Carpenter also pushes back against the simplistic narrative that AI will be deflationary and lead to rate cuts. He argues AI investment is currently boosting inflation marginally. More broadly, the business cycle will dictate policy; AI's productivity gains could boost demand and, crucially, raise the equilibrium interest rate (r*), weakening the case for cuts. In contrast, the ECB's path remains more hawkish. Carpenter interprets President Lagarde's Sintra comments as leaving the door open for another 25 basis point hike in September, though softer recent data and falling oil prices provide some flexibility. A July hike or more than one additional hike this year is seen as unlikely.

marsbitYesterday 01:39

After Close Observation of Wash, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist Insists: The Fed Will Not Raise Rates This Year

marsbitYesterday 01:39

U.S. Stock Market Trend (July 6th): Gold and Crypto Lead Rebound Ahead of Stocks, Fed Minutes Set Weekly Direction

**U.S. Market Trends (July 6): Gold & Crypto Lead, Fed Minutes to Set Tone** Markets rebounded ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising over 1% as AI sector concerns eased. Gold posted its best week in over a month, breaking a four-week losing streak despite ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, as Middle East risk premiums faded. Brent crude extended its decline for a fourth week. The week ahead is packed with key events. On Tuesday, SpaceX makes a record-fast entry into the Nasdaq 100 index, forcing passive fund flows, while U.S. tariff hearings and the Sun Valley Conference—notably missing NVIDIA's Jensen Huang and Tesla's Elon Musk—add complexity. OpenAI's scheduled GPT-5.6 release intensifies the AI model rollout race. The main focus is Thursday's release of the first Fed meeting minutes under Chair Wash. With half the FOMC already leaning toward a rate hike this year per the June dot plot, the minutes' tone will be critical for market direction. Hawkish confirmation could reverse recent risk-on sentiment, likely signaled first by a pullback in high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which significantly outperformed last week. Other events include SK Hynix's large U.S. ADR listing and the start of the Q2 earnings season with reports from PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines. The market's path hinges on whether the liquidity and optimism built during the holiday can withstand the combined tests of Fed policy, trade tensions, and major corporate events.

marsbitYesterday 01:34

U.S. Stock Market Trend (July 6th): Gold and Crypto Lead Rebound Ahead of Stocks, Fed Minutes Set Weekly Direction

marsbitYesterday 01:34

Is ‘gold becoming roomies with Bitcoin’ and will a short squeeze trigger a rebound?

Gold and Bitcoin are experiencing significant investor outflows and rising short interest in the first half of 2026, with Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noting they are close to "becoming roomies" in terms of capital exits. Bitcoin, mirroring gold's weakness, saw its U.S. Spot ETFs post a net outflow of $5.4B in H1 2026—the first since their 2024 debut—while institutional positioning on the CME remained predominantly short. Despite this pressure and the potential for a prolonged downturn into Q4, a weaker U.S. jobs report recently triggered a brief recovery, with ETFs seeing net inflows and CME positioning turning positive. QCP Capital analysts suggest spot demand may be firming, but confirmation hinges on upcoming mid-July inflation data. Key short-term resistance levels are identified at $62.3K, the $65K-$67K zone, and $75K.

ambcrypto07/04 07:03

Is ‘gold becoming roomies with Bitcoin’ and will a short squeeze trigger a rebound?

ambcrypto07/04 07:03

Whale bets $70M on Bitcoin, Solana recovery – Will Fed’s hike fears ruin it?

A whale increased its long positions in Bitcoin and Solana with a $70M bet, and opened a $78M total position including a short on Hyperliquid (HYPE). The move followed a weak U.S. jobs report, which fueled a relief rally in crypto markets by easing fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes. The whale initially saw an unrealized profit of $9.2M. However, Fed rate expectations did not shift significantly toward cuts; markets still price an 83% chance rates remain unchanged. Upcoming FOMC meeting minutes could trigger volatility. The whale's position is already under pressure, with the HYPE short down 70%. Meanwhile, smart money increased bidding on Solana by 129%, but Bitcoin faces heavy short positions near $62K, setting up potential for a short squeeze. For a sustained recovery, Bitcoin must clear resistance at $62.3K and $65K. Overall, the market's direction hinges on the Fed's signals and whether hawkish hints could renew selling pressure.

ambcrypto07/03 14:03

Whale bets $70M on Bitcoin, Solana recovery – Will Fed’s hike fears ruin it?

ambcrypto07/03 14:03

Bitcoin rises as weaker US jobs data bolsters Fed easing expectations

Bitcoin rose as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report fueled expectations for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year. The June report showed only 57,000 nonfarm jobs were added, with previous months revised down by 74,000 jobs, indicating a cooling labor market. This led to a decline in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, while increasing market bets on monetary easing. Investors rotated into risk assets like Bitcoin and Ether, as lower rates are seen as improving liquidity and financial conditions. The focus now shifts to upcoming inflation data for further clues on the timing of the Fed's first rate cut.

ambcrypto07/02 14:38

Bitcoin rises as weaker US jobs data bolsters Fed easing expectations

ambcrypto07/02 14:38

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