# Fed Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Why the Crypto Market Has Already Priced in a Fed Rate Hike and the Failure of the CLARITY Act

This week, two major events are set to influence cryptocurrency market direction: a US Senate vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15th and a Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 16th. Analysts from Santiment observe that the market has already priced in potential negative outcomes from these events. A key indicator is the decline in Bitcoin's Open Interest (OI) for derivatives, which fell 13.5% to 278,000 BTC between September 3rd and 11th, despite Bitcoin's price dropping only 5%. This reduction in OI, representing the total number of outstanding contracts, signals that investors are closing positions and capital is leaving the market, suggesting a preemptive de-risking ahead of the announcements. Market pricing indicates a high probability (over 90%) of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike, a significant increase from a month ago. Simultaneously, the prospects for the CLARITY Act—which would expand crypto business opportunities in the US—appear dim. Prediction markets currently assign only a 27% chance of its passage by 2026, down from 35% recently, with its fate potentially tied to the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections.

cryptonews.ru1h ago

Why the Crypto Market Has Already Priced in a Fed Rate Hike and the Failure of the CLARITY Act

cryptonews.ru1h ago

Bitcoin's Fate Depends on Events Over the Next Two Days: Expert Opinion

The fate of Bitcoin is seen as hinging on major events over the next two days, including the Fed's interest rate decision and the potential passage of the Clarity Act, which experts call a critical catalyst. While markets price in an 80-90% chance of a rate hike, analyst Jim Bianco argues the Fed may be forced to raise rates by 25 basis points to maintain credibility, warning that monetary policy has been too loose with inflation persistently above 2% for over 5 years. Another key risk is surging energy prices due to attacks on Russian refineries, tightening global supply. On Bitcoin, experts diverge. Bloomberg's Mike McGlone remains cautious, citing high correlation with equities and market oversupply. He notes technical improvement but says Bitcoin struggles near key moving averages; a sustained break higher would be bearish. In contrast, Jordi Visser is optimistic, linking Bitcoin's future to AI and asset tokenization. He suggests AI-driven investment could favor assets like Bitcoin with strong network effects and high historical returns, and expects a boom in tokenized assets. Participants also discussed Bitcoin's long-term potential as an asymmetric bet, theoretically capable of a 15-20x rise, though with high volatility. The Clarity Act is seen as symbolically important for Bitcoin but more impactful for stablecoins and the broader US crypto ecosystem.

cryptonews.ru2h ago

Bitcoin's Fate Depends on Events Over the Next Two Days: Expert Opinion

cryptonews.ru2h ago

Fed Expectations Tighten After US Data Release: Major Banks and 101 Economists Share Their Forecasts! What Does This Mean for Bitcoin (BTC)?

Following stronger-than-expected U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, market expectations have shifted sharply towards the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Over 85% of 101 economists surveyed by Reuters now predict a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Major banks, including HSBC, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan, have revised their forecasts. HSBC now expects two 25 basis point hikes in September and December 2026, projecting the federal funds rate to rise to a terminal range of 4-4.25% and remain there through 2027. For Bitcoin (BTC), this shift is seen as a short-term negative factor. Rising interest rates could strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, potentially reducing investor appetite for riskier assets like Bitcoin. The expectation of multiple rate hikes through 2026 could increase market volatility and lead to short-term corrective pressure on Bitcoin's price.

cryptonews.ru4h ago

Fed Expectations Tighten After US Data Release: Major Banks and 101 Economists Share Their Forecasts! What Does This Mean for Bitcoin (BTC)?

cryptonews.ru4h ago

Fed Decision Window, BTC & HYPE Chan Theory Structure and Trading Strategy Analysis | Guest Analysis

This week's focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, expected to heighten short-term market volatility. Technically, Bitcoin's rebound from July lows has entered a phase of range-bound consolidation and testing of key levels. Price action is wrestling around the critical 364-day moving average, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. **Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis:** The primary bullish development is BTC reclaiming the 182-day moving average and testing the 364-day moving average, a key "bull/bear" demarcation line after ~300 days. Price is currently consolidating within a 75,500–82,850 USD range, supported by the 30-day MA and pressured by the 364-day MA. Two main scenarios are outlined for the Fed decision window: 1. **Pre-announcement Rally:** A bounce leading into the event, potentially breaking resistance temporarily, but with limited upside and risk of a post-news "bull trap" pullback. 2. **Pre-announcement Consolidation/Decline:** Sideways or weak action near support, followed by a potential sharp post-news sell-off. A downside spike could present a buying opportunity for a rebound targeting 82,500 USD. **BTC Trading Strategy:** Adopt a wait-and-see approach early week. Post-Fed, implement short-term strategies (using 30% capital) based on price action at key levels: * **Plan A (Long):** Consider a long position if price stabilizes above the second major support zone (67,300–69,100 USD) with confirming signals. * **Plan B (Short):** Consider a short position if price rallies to the 82,850–84,500 USD resistance zone and shows signs of rejection. Mid-term strategy remains on hold, awaiting a confirmed pullback to the breakout level of the "long/short channel." **Hype (HYPE) Analysis:** HYPE's rally from early August appears to have concluded, forming a clear momentum divergence (bearish) upon reaching its all-time high. Price has broken below key $80 support, confirming a shift to a corrective phase. **HYPE Trading Strategy:** Previous long positions from 50–52 USD were exited near 80 USD. Given the Fed event, the recommendation is to remain in cash and monitor. Key will be the strength of any rebound from the 76–77 USD support zone to gauge the correction's duration. **General Risk Management:** Immediately set a stop-loss on entry. Trail the stop to breakeven at +1% profit, then lock in profits by moving the stop-loss incrementally with each further 1% gain. *Disclaimer: Market conditions change rapidly. This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Trading carries significant risk.*

marsbit6h ago

Fed Decision Window, BTC & HYPE Chan Theory Structure and Trading Strategy Analysis | Guest Analysis

marsbit6h ago

TechFlow Intelligence: Anthropic Chooses Nasdaq for IPO Valuation Potentially Up to 2 Trillion USD; Saudi Pipeline Disruption Drives Oil Prices Above 108 USD

**TechFlow Intelligence Brief: Key Market Developments** * **AI & Tech:** Anthropic plans a Nasdaq IPO in October, potentially valuing it at $2 trillion. In contrast, OpenAI stated it will not IPO this year, causing a sharp drop in major investor SoftBank's stock. Visa and Mastercard, with Ant Group, introduced a framework enabling AI agents to make autonomous payments. Google DeepMind unveiled advanced video understanding capabilities for its Gemini AI. * **Crypto/Web3:** Bitcoin ETFs saw significant weekly outflows ($463M), while Ethereum ETFs attracted inflows ($197M). A key US stablecoin bill vote and the Fed meeting are major catalysts. After a hack, cross-chain bridge Symbiosis recovered 15 BTC, offering a bounty for the remainder. Bitcoin Suisse is cutting up to half its Swiss staff, shifting focus overseas. Trump's 2024 disclosure revealed ~$1.4B in crypto-related earnings. * **Semiconductors/Hardware:** A community project enabling CUDA on AMD Windows GPUs sparked debate. Meta detailed its new MTIA 300 AI training chip with a built-in network interface to reduce reliance on NVIDIA. * **Companies:** A viral Hacker News post criticized Google's persistent issues with suspicious ads. Larry Ellison canceled a planned $7.5B Oracle stock sale. Apple is reportedly developing a game controller for iPhone, including the upcoming foldable "Duo" model. * **Stocks & Markets:** Nike was removed from the S&P 100 after an 18-year decline. Nasdaq futures fell 1.5% on AI slowdown concerns, while Brent crude oil surged 3%. * **Finance/Macro:** Oil prices soared above $108/barrel after a drone attack forced Saudi Arabia to shut a major pipeline, threatening 4% of global supply. Iran claimed it shot down an advanced US drone in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating regional tensions. Former President Trump urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian refineries as US diesel prices hit record highs. Crypto data firm Kaiko raised $110M in a round led by S&P Global. **The Underlying Theme:** Diverse headlines mask a common thread: the market is re-pricing trust in "growth stories." Uncertainty around AI risks, IPO timelines, inflation from rising oil, and impending Fed decisions are forcing a reassessment of assets reliant on cheap capital, affecting both AI and crypto sectors.

marsbit6h ago

TechFlow Intelligence: Anthropic Chooses Nasdaq for IPO Valuation Potentially Up to 2 Trillion USD; Saudi Pipeline Disruption Drives Oil Prices Above 108 USD

marsbit6h ago

«Intermission Before the Decisive Act»: QCP Capital Breaks Down Risks for Bitcoin Ahead of Fed Decision

QCP Capital's market analysis focuses on mixed U.S. inflation data released just before the key Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting. While headline CPI inflation remained steady at 3.4% year-on-year, the core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy) rose 0.3% monthly, exceeding the expected 0.2%. This, driven by housing and energy costs, solidified expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike. Bitcoin's muted reaction to the data, briefly dipping to $76,700 before recovering to ~$77,600, suggests the market had already priced in the hike. The focus has shifted to the Fed's future guidance. Bitcoin ETF outflows contrasted with Ethereum ETF inflows, showing differing institutional positioning. Market volatility remains low ahead of the Fed decision. The negative 25-delta risk reversal (around -3 vols) indicates traders are moderately hedging against downside risk without panic. QCP notes volatility could spike into the meeting and collapse afterward if the Fed meets expectations. Key technical levels are: Bitcoin resistance $80k-$82k, support $75k-$76k; Ethereum resistance $2,500-$2,550, support $2,400-$2,425. The Fed's "dot plot" and rhetoric will be crucial for market direction. Other market pressures include rising oil prices (Brent >$107) from supply disruptions, which could feed into inflation, and a sell-off in overheated AI-related tech stocks. Bitcoin has shown resilience to the latter, but a broader risk-off move could spill over. Legislatively, a procedural Senate vote on the updated CLARITY Act is anticipated. Its passage would clarify crypto regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, potentially boosting institutional confidence, but the vote is just a step in a longer process. The market awaits the FOMC decision and press conference. Three main scenarios are: 1) A moderate hike with cautious forward guidance (bullish), 2) A hike signaling further tightening (bearish for bonds/risk assets), or 3) A surprise (no hike or unexpectedly hawkish tone). The interplay of the Fed's signals, oil prices, ETF flows, and legislative progress will determine the market's next move.

cryptonews.ru6h ago

«Intermission Before the Decisive Act»: QCP Capital Breaks Down Risks for Bitcoin Ahead of Fed Decision

cryptonews.ru6h ago

Bernstein Says Market Underestimates Progress on CLARITY Act

Analysts at Bernstein believe the market has underestimated recent progress on the CLARITY Act due to recent Republican concessions, and any positive surprise is not yet priced in. They note current investor positioning is skewed towards a negative outcome, so successful advancement of the bill could significantly move cryptocurrency and related stock prices. The reassessment follows Republican compromises on ethics rules and protections for local banks. On September 14th, President Trump agreed to a bipartisan proposal tightening restrictions on crypto holdings for officials, which Bernstein called the "maximum possible" concession from the White House and could sway some Democrats. A key vote to end debate and proceed to consideration of the bill is scheduled for September 15th in the Senate, requiring 60 votes. Passage would not enact the law but allow further amendments and votes. Bernstein highlighted the upcoming Fed rate decision on September 16th as the next major event. They warned a simultaneous failure of the CLARITY Act and a hawkish Fed could cause a major sell-off, while a favorable vote could trigger a positive market reaction. Should the bill fail, analysts expect accelerated rulemaking by the SEC and CFTC, which could help sector stocks recover after an initial sell-off.

cryptonews.ru8h ago

Bernstein Says Market Underestimates Progress on CLARITY Act

cryptonews.ru8h ago

Goldman Sachs Abruptly Reverses Course: The Fed Is Cornered by the Market, Holding Rates Would Be the Surprise

Wall Street's outlook for the Federal Reserve's September meeting is shifting rapidly. Goldman Sachs has reversed its prior forecast, now predicting a 25 basis point rate hike this month, citing a significant shift in market pricing rather than a major reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook. With the CME FedWatch Tool showing an 87% probability of a hike, the bank argues the Fed may be reluctant to deliver a surprise pause. This shift occurs amid renewed inflation concerns. Stronger-than-expected producer price data, coupled with Brent crude oil surpassing $100 per barrel—driven by geopolitical tensions—and record-high U.S. diesel prices, are raising risks of broader price pressures. August CPI data showed no clear cooling, with annual inflation holding at 3.4%. The decision is further complicated by the dynamic between Fed Chair Wash and President Trump, who continues to advocate for lower rates. Analysts note that hiking just weeks before the midterm elections could provoke presidential frustration. However, former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson and others argue that delivering a widely anticipated hike is crucial for the central bank's policy credibility, especially after Chair Wash's recent hawkish signals on inflation. The consensus is converging on a September hike. The key focus is whether the Fed, under Wash's leadership, will follow through with tightening amidst political pressure, persistent inflation, and volatile energy markets.

marsbit10h ago

Goldman Sachs Abruptly Reverses Course: The Fed Is Cornered by the Market, Holding Rates Would Be the Surprise

marsbit10h ago

Expert Names Conditions for Bitcoin to Rise to $85,000

A Bitcoin expert stated that dovish rhetoric from the U.S. Federal Reserve could support Bitcoin and create conditions for a return to the $80,000 level. If Bitcoin consolidates above this, the next targets would be the $82,000 to $85,000 range. Bitcoin fell over 4% last week to around $76,800 due to factors like high oil prices, accelerating U.S. inflation, rising Treasury yields, and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, in contrast to continued inflows into Ethereum funds. The main event for the market is the upcoming Fed meeting. While a potential rate hike is largely priced in, the regulator's statements and updated economic forecasts will be key. However, if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance alongside strong macroeconomic data and high oil prices, pressure on the crypto market could increase. In that scenario, key support lies between $75,500 and $76,300, with a break below raising the likelihood of a drop toward $74,000. The expert noted that as long as Bitcoin remains below $80,000, any upward moves should be seen as an unstable rebound rather than the start of a new growth phase. A sustained uptrend would require an improved macroeconomic backdrop and a return of investor demand. Bitcoin had briefly risen above $80,000 in late August for the first time since May.

cryptonews.ru10h ago

Expert Names Conditions for Bitcoin to Rise to $85,000

cryptonews.ru10h ago

Investment giant Goldman Sachs announces it expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates! Here's the expected pace of increase

Investment giant Goldman Sachs has revised its monetary policy forecast, now expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting. This shift changes the bank's previous view that rates would remain unchanged. The update is attributed to a recent shift in market pricing and investor expectations toward a rate hike, rather than a fundamental change in economic outlook. Goldman Sachs noted that a significant portion of investors currently anticipate the September increase. The bank emphasized that its revised forecast primarily reflects the growing influence of market pricing on policy expectations. Decisions on U.S. interest rates are closely watched globally, as they can impact the U.S. dollar, bond yields, and investor appetite for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, which are sensitive to changes in U.S. liquidity conditions. Beyond the September decision, upcoming communications from Fed officials regarding the future path of interest rates will be crucial for market direction.

cryptonews.ru13h ago

Investment giant Goldman Sachs announces it expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates! Here's the expected pace of increase

cryptonews.ru13h ago

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