Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Turns Positive for the First Time in 7 Months: End of Bear Market or False Breakout?
Bitcoin's "Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator" from CryptoQuant has turned positive for the first time since October 2025. This gauge, based on the P&L Index relative to its 365-day moving average, suggests a potential shift from a bear market phase. Concurrently, the Bull Score Index rose to a neutral reading of 50 in late April.
The indicator's move into positive territory follows a roughly 35% price rebound from a low near $60,000 in February to above $81,000. The recovery over approximately three months was faster than the 12-month period observed during the 2022 bear market.
However, analysts caution against premature optimism, citing a historical precedent from March 2022. Back then, the Bull Score Index briefly hit 50, but it proved to be a false signal as Bitcoin's price subsequently plunged further.
Structural differences exist in the current cycle, including consistent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and an increase in large holder addresses. Yet, some models, referencing the four-year halving cycle, suggest a potential deeper bottom near $50,000 might still be possible around late 2026.
In summary, while on-chain data shows marked improvement and the worst panic may be over, market participants remain cautious. A convincing trend reversal confirmation likely requires Bitcoin to sustainably break above key resistance, such as the 200-day moving average near $82,000.
marsbit05/12 10:08
