According to an agreement announced on August 5, Genius Sports will supply Kalshi with official real-time data across its entire soccer portfolio, including the English Premier League, Serie A, Liga MX, Argentine Primera División, and French Ligue 1.
Kalshi will use the verified data as the sole source of truth for settling sports event contracts, will join Genius's information exchange processes, will limit access to certain types of markets, and will also use marketing services through media resources owned by Legend (a Genius division) – review and comparison websites that players land on when searching for a bookmaker or casino and which receive a commission each time a reader registers with an operator. "As the prediction market ecosystem continues to expand rapidly, using official data and integrity and transparency services is more important than ever," said Adam Barrick, Head of Sports Partnerships at Kalshi.
The agreement with Polymarket, announced the day before, covers the same settlement data and integrity services but is supplemented by exclusive rights to live broadcasts in the U.S. and league intellectual property for specific competitions, including Serie A. It took effect immediately for eligible U.S. users. Kalshi's press release did not specify an effective date for its agreement. Neither company disclosed financial terms.
CEO Mark Locke said on Thursday that these two deals reflect a thoughtful position: "We own the official data on which the regulated ecosystem, bookmakers, media, and now prediction markets depend, and we own the audience that sits at the top of this structure." He noted that demand is growing as prediction market operators enter the sector. Genius told investors that the acquisition of Legend brought it approximately 180 million proprietary users, while sales and marketing expenses increased by $3 million against a revenue increase of $77 million for the quarter.
On August 6, Genius released its Q2 results: revenue grew 65% to $195.5 million against a forecast of $185 million, adjusted EBITDA grew 54% to $52.6 million against a forecast of $45 million, and the group's adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.9%, exceeding the forecast margin by 258 basis points. The company attributed exceeding forecasts to early synergy effects from the merger with Legend, effective media operations, and additional contribution from prediction markets. As both partnerships were announced after the quarter ended on June 30, neither contributed to this result. Genius raised its annual revenue forecast to $1.005–1.025 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $285–295 million.
Net loss increased from $53.9 million to $76.7 million, largely due to expenses related to Legend, and the half-year loss reached $132.2 million. Revenue in the Media & Technology segment, which includes the Legend division, grew 192.8% to $78.2 million, with contribution made over just two months; revenue in the Betting Technology segment grew 27.5% to $117.4 million due to revised pricing upon contract renewals and service expansion. On May 1, Genius completed the $1.2 billion acquisition deal for Legend, bringing websites Covers.com, Casino.org, and Casino Guru under the management of the official data division.
Investors viewed these two announcements as a reassessment. Genius shares rose 14.3% on Tuesday following the Polymarket news and added another roughly 2% on Wednesday after the Kalshi deal, closing at $8.33, up nearly 25% for the week.
In June, Kalshi appointed Sportradar as the official data provider for MLB, NHL, MLS, and UFC content, including real-time odds, integrity monitoring, and marketing services. The Genius announcement says nothing about replacing this agreement or providing exclusive rights, and its soccer portfolio covers other leagues. Both platforms also partnered with Genius during the FIFA World Cup, when the company provided official data as part of Kalshi's partnership with the Argentine Football Association and supported Polymarket's U.S. sponsorship of Liga MX. This week's deals transform these venue-specific agreements into platform-level relationships.
According to The Block's dashboard data, the combined trading volume in July on the Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US platforms reached a record $50.59 billion, a 7.8% increase over the June baseline, which has since been revised upward to $46.95 billion. Kalshi accounted for $37.7 billion of this amount. Trading volume does not equal total capital invested – contracts are resold multiple times, so this figure overstates the amount of capital at risk. Even though the World Cup is now far behind, it makes sense for these platforms to focus even more on soccer events this fall. Open interest across these three platforms decreased from about $2 billion in early July to $1.2 billion by the end of the month, after the final on July 19.
Open interest on the international Polymarket platform decreased by 26% to $7.9 billion, while on the company's U.S. division it grew by 54% to $5 billion. The legal landscape also changed that same week: on August 4, a federal judge in Utah granted summary judgment in favor of the State of Utah against Kalshi, rejecting all preemption arguments the exchange had raised regarding its sports event contracts; this decision the exchange is appealing to the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals.
