Expert Trader Who Called $126K Bitcoin Peak Makes Official Bottom Call

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-02-21Last updated on 2026-02-21

Abstract

Tony Severino, a Chartered Market Technician, has made an official call for the Bitcoin bear market bottom. He predicts BTC will reach a low of around $34,000 in October 2026, representing a maximum drawdown of approximately -72%. This forecast is based on a statistical analysis of historical bear market declines, which have shown a pattern of linear decay in volatility. Severino has a proven track record, having previously and accurately called the Bitcoin peak at $126,000 in late October 2025. His trades and predictions are publicly documented on Slice App, where he maintains a transparent and high-performing profile.

Tony Severino, a Chartered Market Technician and Bitcoin trader, was among the rare few analysts who accurately pinpointed the peak in Bitcoin both in terms of timing and at what price.

In a recent X Space, Severino shared his official target for the bear market bottom in BTCUSD. The target includes at what price level the top cryptocurrency is expected to reach, when it will happen, and what the total percentage drawdown will be before it is “all said and done.”

Tony Severino, CMT Calls For $34,000 Bitcoin In October 2026

In this week’s Market Talk X Space hosted by Wolf Bitcoin and Wolf Financial, recurring featured guest and panelist Tony Severino revealed his “official” bottom call for BTC.

Severino, who is a highly-trained technical analyst focusing on cycles, patterns, and psychology, expects the bear market to end later this year around October 2026. Perhaps more importantly, the price prediction aspect is the result of what Severino expects to be a roughly -72% max drawdown. This figure takes BTCUSD to around $34,000 per coin.

While several technical levels exist as to why this zone could be reached, such as this level being the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, the Chartered Market Technician points to a statistical formula.

Related Reading | Thinking Of Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Here’s What This Metric Says

The first ever bear market drawdown resulted in a -94% decline. Next, in 2014, BTCUSD fell by -86%. 2018’s bear market ended after reaching a full -84% max drawdown. Meanwhile, the last bear market set Bitcoin back -78% and ended with the FTX collapse.

The next average in the linear decay sequence would suggest a max drawdown of between -72 and -74%. Severino’s target is on the more conservative end. Linear decay essentially accounts for the diminished volatility in the cryptocurrency market, while maintaining a realistic average.

Tony Severino CMT calls for BTCUSD to bottom according to this chart

Why The Price Prediction Matters – A Transparent Track Record

Why does Tony Severino’s targets matter? Severino called for an initial top in Bitcoin in early 2025 around Trump’s inauguration. This was the precise top when comparing BTC against Gold, and was when the bear market started in the BTCUSD trading pair.

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Tony even suggested Bitcoin would bounce in April 2025 based on a TD buy setup on the weekly chart, then warned Bitcoin was topping out once again when it reached $126K in late October.

The skilled trader has recently gained notoriety, sharing a number of high ROI short positions up to 13,000% (using leverage). Tony is also a mentor on Slice App, where he currently has the “best ROI” on the entire platform following a public trade on Silver that gained over 183% (without leverage). Slice App forces transparency and accountability by not allowing mentors to delete or edit posts or trade setups. All of Tony’s trades are public and proven – making his recent bottom call that much more credible and worth considering.

You can find Tony Severino on Slice App.

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Related Questions

QWho is Tony Severino and what is his professional background?

ATony Severino is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a Bitcoin trader who specializes in technical analysis, focusing on cycles, patterns, and market psychology.

QWhat is Tony Severino's official bottom call prediction for Bitcoin, including the price and timeframe?

ATony Severino predicts that Bitcoin will reach a bear market bottom of around $34,000 in October 2026.

QWhat is the expected maximum drawdown percentage for Bitcoin according to Severino's analysis?

ASeverino expects a maximum drawdown of roughly -72% for Bitcoin.

QWhat statistical reasoning does Severino use to support his price prediction?

AHe uses a linear decay sequence based on historical bear market drawdowns (-94%, -86%, -84%, -78%), which suggests the next average would be between -72% and -74%.

QWhy is Tony Severino considered a reliable source for this prediction?

AHe has a transparent track record, including accurately calling Bitcoin's peak at $126K, sharing high-ROI short positions, and maintaining public, verifiable trades on Slice App where he has the best ROI.

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