Examining why Bitcoin was less volatile than Nvidia in 2025

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-19Last updated on 2025-12-19

Abstract

According to a Bitwise analysis, Bitcoin exhibited lower volatility than Nvidia throughout 2025, signaling a new market phase. This shift is attributed to structural derisking driven by increased institutional access, regulatory oversight, and the significant influence of ETFs. These funds have broadened Bitcoin's investor base, smoothing out its historically extreme boom-bust cycles. ETFs now act as market whales, with their flows dictating risk sentiment. Bitwise predicts ETFs will purchase more than the entire new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in 2026. The firm also expects crypto equities to outperform tech stocks, as evidenced by its Crypto Innovators 30 Index's 585% surge versus tech's 140% gain. At press time, Bitcoin traded near $88k, with price reactions appearing more controlled than in previous cycles.

According to a detailed Bitwise thread, Bitcoin [BTC] has entered a new market phase. The firm noted that Bitcoin no longer behaves like a leverage‐driven asset.

Bitwise explained that institutional access and regulatory oversight have replaced the hype surrounding halving and speculative excess. This shift, they argued, has helped reduce the extreme boom‐and‐bust cycles that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior.

Why Bitcoin stayed calmer than Nvidia

Bitwise reported that Bitcoin was less volatile than Nvidia throughout 2025. The firm highlighted how Bitcoin’s rolling volatility has steadily declined over the past decade.

They described this trend as structural derisking across the crypto market. According to Bitwise, the shift is directly linked to the rise of ETFs, which have broadened Bitcoin’s investor base and helped smooth out volatility.

Currently, these exchange‐traded funds act as the new whales, steering Bitcoin and wider crypto flows. When ETFs withdraw liquidity, markets interpret it as “risk off.” Conversely, when they buy aggressively, sentiment flips to “risk on.”

ETFs, institutions, and expanding market exposure

Bitwise predicted that, in 2026, ETFs will purchase more than the entire new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum [ETH], and Solana [SOL]. Since launch, Bitcoin ETFs have bought 710,777 BTC, while the network has produced 363,047 BTC.

The firm predicted that crypto equities will decisively outperform tech stocks in the current market cycle. It highlighted its Crypto Innovators 30 Index, which surged 585%, far surpassing tech’s 140% gain.

Bitwise extended the outlook to prediction markets, stablecoins, and tokenization. It predicted Polymarket open interest would reach new highs and warned stablecoins could be blamed for destabilizing an emerging market currency as supply neared $300B.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s price action

At press time, Bitcoin traded near $88k, holding visible support after the broader pullback. Price reactions appeared more controlled than prior cycle corrections.

MACD fell to extreme bearish levels during the drop toward $80,000.

Momentum has dropped below the previous lows from August 2024 and April 2025, reflecting patterns of earlier exhaustion phases.

Final Thoughts

  • Bitwise framed Bitcoin’s lower volatility versus Nvidia as a lasting structural shift.
  • ETFs, regulation, and institutions reshaped Bitcoin’s price behavior and market role.

Related Questions

QAccording to the article, why was Bitcoin less volatile than Nvidia in 2025?

AThe article attributes Bitcoin's lower volatility to structural derisking in the crypto market, driven by the rise of ETFs which have broadened its investor base and smoothed out price swings, replacing the previous hype-driven, speculative behavior.

QWhat role do ETFs play in the current Bitcoin market, as described by Bitwise?

AETFs now act as the new whales in the market, steering Bitcoin and wider crypto flows. Their buying is interpreted as 'risk on' sentiment, while withdrawals are seen as 'risk off', and they are predicted to purchase more than the entire new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in 2026.

QWhat key factor did Bitwise link to the reduction of Bitcoin's extreme boom-and-bust cycles?

ABitwise linked this reduction to a market shift where institutional access and regulatory oversight have replaced the hype surrounding halving events and speculative excess.

QHow did the performance of crypto equities compare to tech stocks, according to the article?

AThe article states that crypto equities, as measured by the Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index, decisively outperformed tech stocks, surging 585% compared to tech's 140% gain in the current market cycle.

QWhat was the state of Bitcoin's price and momentum at the time the article was written?

AAt press time, Bitcoin was trading near $88k, holding visible support after a pullback. The MACD had fallen to extreme bearish levels during a drop toward $80,000, and momentum had dropped below previous lows, reflecting patterns of earlier exhaustion phases.

Related Reads

Gary Yang: Agent Economy and AI Submicroeconomics

**Title:** Agent Economy and AI Sub-Microeconomics - Gary Yang **Summary:** Following the AI singularity, the pace of evolution has accelerated rapidly, creating new generational disparities in technological advancement globally. While many regions are still grappling with single-agent bottlenecks, Silicon Valley has moved ahead into the next dimension: the Agent Economy and A2A ecosystems. The article outlines six key areas of this emerging paradigm: 1. **AI Payment Competition & H2A Bottlenecks:** A fierce battle for AI Agent payment protocol standards is underway (e.g., MPP, x402). However, most current efforts remain Human-to-Agent (H2A), essentially grafting AI onto traditional human-centric commerce, which creates a non-AI-native bottleneck. The true potential lies in Agent-to-Agent (A2A) autonomous economies. 2. **Agent Economy & the Inevitable A2A Trend:** The Agent Economy is defined by autonomous AI Agents creating, exchanging, and capitalizing value as independent economic actors. The A2A ecosystem describes their interactions. This represents the next major investment frontier, akin to the early days of e-commerce or DeFi, but with faster iteration and an AI-native, efficiency-first perspective that often diverges from human needs. 3. **AI Protocol vs. Crypto Protocol:** AI Protocols are the foundational rules for Agent interaction in an open network (communication, discovery, collaboration), akin to the governance and economic laws of the AI world. Currently, they focus on communication and weak boundaries, unlike Crypto Protocols which emphasize asset rights and clear ownership. While they appear different due to political-economic factors and legacy system constraints, their eventual convergence into a unified Digital Protocol system is seen as inevitable, driven by first principles. 4. **AI Agent Sub-Microeconomics & Biological Analogy:** AI Agent economics differ fundamentally from human economics: higher frequency/lower value transactions, energy/value direct correlation, efficiency-driven (not emotional) decisions, task-oriented (not consumption-oriented) behavior, and near-zero organizational/communication costs. A powerful analogy frames the Agent economy as a biological system: the LLM is the nucleus, the Agent harness is the cytoplasm, the Agent itself is a cell, its communication protocol is the cell membrane, and external tools (Skills, Prompts) are the extracellular environment. 5. **The Inevitability of AIFi & FinChip:** AIFi (AI Finance) represents the financial system where AI-native value within the Agent economy is tokenized and exchanged. Unlike TradFi/DeFi where value resides *in* finance, in AIFi, value originates *in* AI, and finance becomes its form. This shift is enabled by Agents taking over value discovery. FinChip (Financial Chip) is introduced as a key infrastructure—a fusion of AI autonomy and crypto smart contracts—forming intelligent financial assets to power the future A2A economy. 6. **AI-Native as a Paradigm Shift:** Adopting AI is not akin to "Internet+". It requires AI-Native thinking—designing systems based on first principles, the shortest energy-value path, and maximum efficiency. This abstract, counter-intuitive logic poses a significant, ongoing challenge for all practitioners, as effective, generalized upgrade methodologies will be slow to emerge in this rapidly evolving landscape.

链捕手40m ago

Gary Yang: Agent Economy and AI Submicroeconomics

链捕手40m ago

From 'The Big Short' to San Francisco: The Revelry and Dizziness Within the AI Bubble

From "The Big Short" to San Francisco: The Frenzy and Dizziness in the AI Bubble The article captures the intense, frenetic atmosphere in San Francisco, the epicenter of the current AI boom. Drawing a parallel to the "smell of money" from *The Big Short*, the author observes a city gripped by a singular status game centered entirely on AI and technology. This manifests in a palpable, caffeine-fueled anxiety ("people are shaking"), rampant comparison using vanity metrics like funding rounds, and pervasive "Big Bubble Behavior." The piece explores the city's stark contrasts: its dystopian streets versus beautiful vistas, and the disconnect between the doomsday concerns of some AI researchers and the optimistic, growth-focused "GTM" teams. It critiques the obsession with "math genius" founders as the new ticket to outsized returns, akin to scouting sports prodigies. Referencing economic historian Carlota Perez's "frenzy phase" and Karl Polanyi's "double movement," the author frames the boom as a period where financial speculation detaches from fundamentals, with society potentially becoming subordinate to a new economic force driven by "geniuses in data centers." Ultimately, while acknowledging the unprecedented wealth creation and party-like energy, the article concludes with cautionary advice: when the music is playing, you should dance, but don't get drunk. The core reminder is to stay grounded, avoid distorted judgment, and maintain perspective amidst the euphoria.

marsbit42m ago

From 'The Big Short' to San Francisco: The Revelry and Dizziness Within the AI Bubble

marsbit42m ago

Is AI Creating a New Class of 'Information Poor'?

AI is generating a new kind of "information poverty." The core issue isn't that AI denies answers to the poor; it's that it provides abundant, cheap, and plausible-sounding answers to everyone. This availability shifts the true scarcity from obtaining answers to possessing the **judgment to evaluate them** and the access to turn them into real-world opportunities. New information poverty thus describes those who have AI tools and outputs, but lack the complementary skills, authorization, and contextual experience to critically assess and act on them. Research reveals a multi-layered divide: access to AI is stratified by income and platform design (e.g., premium vs. free, embedded tools). In workplaces, usage heavily favors higher-paid, more experienced, or formally trained employees, with AI often automating entry-level tasks that were traditional stepping stones. Crucially, the heaviest users are often mid-career professionals whose existing expertise allows them to effectively judge and leverage AI outputs, while novices risk over-relying on them without building judgment. While controlled experiments show AI can significantly boost low-skilled workers' performance, real-world adoption and benefit are constrained by unequal social and organizational structures. Historically, general-purpose technologies first reward those with existing complementary capital. AI, by affecting judgment-based work, may accelerate and deepen this initial inequality gap, even if it narrows over decades. The danger lies in the illusion of competence it creates, potentially stunting the very critical thinking needed in an era where judgment is paramount.

marsbit1h ago

Is AI Creating a New Class of 'Information Poor'?

marsbit1h ago

Jensen Huang 'Saves' South Korean Stock Market: Locks In SK Hynix Memory, Chip Shortage to Continue

On June 5th, South Korea's stock market experienced a sharp decline, with major chipmakers like Samsung and SK Hynix dropping nearly 10%. Amidst the turmoil, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's visit to Seoul played a dramatic role in boosting market sentiment. Following a dinner meeting with SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won and SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung, Huang confirmed that NVIDIA's new Vera CPU will utilize SK Hynix DRAM. The companies announced a multi-year technical partnership to co-develop next-generation memory for NVIDIA's AI infrastructure, covering products from data centers to personal AI and robotics. This collaboration extends beyond memory supply. SK Hynix is integrating NVIDIA's AI and Omniverse platform into its own semiconductor design and manufacturing processes, including computational lithography and creating digital twins of its fabrication plants for autonomous operation. While strengthening ties with SK Hynix, NVIDIA is diversifying its supply chain for the upcoming HBM4 memory, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all certified as suppliers for its Vera Rubin platform. Despite this, Huang warned that the global chip shortage, driven by relentless demand from AI factory construction, is expected to persist for several years across the entire supply chain. His visit underscores NVIDIA's systematic effort to deepen integration with South Korea's broader tech industry.

marsbit2h ago

Jensen Huang 'Saves' South Korean Stock Market: Locks In SK Hynix Memory, Chip Shortage to Continue

marsbit2h ago

Nasdaq Plunges 4.2% in a Single Day: Does "Black Friday" Burst the U.S. Stock Market Bubble?

The Nasdaq plunged 4.18% on June 5, 2026, its worst single-day drop in over a year, as a much stronger-than-expected US jobs report triggered fears of economic overheating and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The selloff, centered on high-valuation tech and AI stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom, spread across major indices. The article examines whether this signals a market top. The strong May non-farm payrolls data, nearly double expectations, pushed bond yields higher, directly hurting rate-sensitive tech stocks. This exposed vulnerabilities in the crowded AI trade, where valuations had soared on narratives of infinite growth, despite emerging signs of slowing order momentum and corporate AI monetization challenges. Prior to the drop, market indicators flashed warning signs: historically high valuations (e.g., Shiller CAPE ratio near 39.5), extreme bullish sentiment, and high levels of leverage. Technical charts showed key support levels being breached. Wall Street is divided on the outlook. Bears, citing risks of "stagflation" and AI bubble comparisons to the dot-com era, warn of a potential significant correction. Bulls view the drop as a healthy correction within a bull market, underpinned by a strong economy and expected corporate earnings growth of around 7% in 2026. The immediate future hinges on upcoming key events: the May CPI inflation data and the mid-June FOMC meeting. Their outcomes will critically shape market expectations for the Fed's rate path. The article concludes that conditions for a major market top are aligning, marking a fragile transition from narrative-driven gains to a phase demanding validation from macroeconomic data and corporate fundamentals. Caution is advised.

marsbit2h ago

Nasdaq Plunges 4.2% in a Single Day: Does "Black Friday" Burst the U.S. Stock Market Bubble?

marsbit2h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions