Can Strategy rebound after its first close below $100 since 2024?

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-06-25Last updated on 2026-06-25

Abstract

MicroStrategy's stock (MSTR) has fallen below $100 for the first time since March 2024, trading at $94.23 after a significant decline. Despite increasing its Bitcoin holdings to 847,363 BTC through recent share sales, the firm's strategy faces criticism. Market strategist Charlie Bilello warns of potential for further deep declines, citing historical precedents. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggests the company's aggressive Bitcoin purchases act more as a "liquidity sink" than a price catalyst, noting new buying is offset by selling pressure. He recommends pausing BTC buys to rebuild cash reserves. Analysis shows MSTR's stock price and its price-to-BTC reserve ratio are in decline, meaning investors are paying a much smaller premium for its Bitcoin acquisition strategy compared to prior bull markets. As Bitcoin's price struggles, scrutiny grows on MicroStrategy's leveraged treasury model and its need for greater capital discipline.

Bitcoin [BTC] treasury firm Strategy has dropped below $100 for the first time since March 2024.

Following a 9.26% decline in the previous trading day, MSTR was trading at $94.23 at the time of writing. Its cryptocurrency holdings have climbed to 847,363 BTC after selling 2.71 million MSTR shares. The sale raised $335.5 million in net proceeds, part of which was used to buy 520 Bitcoins for $34.9 million, an average price of $67,068 per BTC.

Notably, Strategy’s late‐May sale of 32 BTC was the initial catalyst for this decline.

The market reaction was swift!

Charlie Bilello, Chief Market Strategist at Creative Planning, cautioned investors not to assume that a stock has little downside simply because it has already fallen significantly.

Source: X

Although MSTR has already fallen more than 80% from its peak, Bilello noted that history shows sharp declines can deepen further. He pointed to Strategy’s shares plunging about 99.86% during the Dot‐com Bubble, underscoring that heavy losses do not always mark the bottom.

He added,

“f it were to match that, it means another -99% decline from here.

In fact, other crypto leaders also criticized Strategy’s Bitcoin buying binge, as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted:

Strategy’s BTC buying here looks more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst.

Is the Bitcoin buying spree a problem?

Young Ju observed that although the realized market capitalization of Bitcoin has increased by $467 billion over the last two years, the asset’s price has stayed relatively stable. This indicated that new buying has mostly been absorbed by increased selling pressure rather than propelling a sustained rally.

Source: CryptoQuant

According to Young Ju, the Strategy’s ongoing accumulation in this setting might just be keeping a deeper correction from happening, which would otherwise force weaker investors to give up. Hence, he recommended,

They should pause Bitcoin purchases, rebuild cash reserves, and adopt a systematic framework for purchase timing.

Market dynamics are painting a different picture

All of this occurred after Bitcoin fell 1.59% over the previous day to trade at $61,246.22 at press time. As the largest Bitcoin Digital Asset Treasury (DAT), it’s crucial to track how these shifting BTC dynamics affect Strategy’s massive Bitcoin position.

However, CryptoQuant’s MicroStrategy Price‐to‐BTC Reserve Ratio shows that after peaking in late 2024 and early 2025, both Strategy’s stock price and its reserve ratio have been in steady decline.

Source: CryptoQuant

This indicates that the market value of the stock has gotten closer to, or even condensed in relation to, the value of its underlying Bitcoin holdings.

Therefore, compared to the previous bull market, investors are now paying a much smaller premium for Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition strategy.


Final Summary

  • Investors are paying closer attention to Strategy’s leveraged Bitcoin treasury model as Bitcoin struggles to recover.
  • Instead of depending entirely on ongoing Bitcoin purchases, Strategy might need to exhibit greater capital discipline.

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Related Questions

QWhat event caused Strategy's stock price to drop below $100 for the first time since March 2024?

AThe initial catalyst for the decline was Strategy's sale of 32 Bitcoins in late May, which was followed by a broader market reaction and a significant daily drop in its stock price.

QWhat does Charlie Bilello caution investors about regarding Strategy's stock?

ACharlie Bilello cautions investors not to assume a stock has little downside just because it has fallen significantly, noting that sharp declines can deepen further, as seen during the Dot-com Bubble when Strategy's shares plunged about 99.86%.

QAccording to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, what is a potential issue with Strategy's Bitcoin buying strategy in the current market?

AKi Young Ju observed that Strategy's Bitcoin buying appears to act more as a 'liquidity sink' than a price catalyst. He suggests it may be preventing a deeper market correction that would force weaker investors out, and recommends pausing purchases to rebuild cash reserves and adopt a systematic buying framework.

QWhat does the decline in Strategy's Price-to-BTC Reserve Ratio indicate about the stock's current market valuation?

AThe decline in the Price-to-BTC Reserve Ratio indicates that the market value of Strategy's stock has moved closer to the underlying value of its Bitcoin holdings. This means investors are now paying a much smaller premium for the company's Bitcoin acquisition strategy compared to the previous bull market.

QWhat are the two key points mentioned in the article's final summary regarding Strategy's future approach?

AThe two key points are: 1) Investors are paying closer attention to Strategy's leveraged Bitcoin treasury model as Bitcoin struggles to recover. 2) Instead of depending entirely on ongoing Bitcoin purchases, Strategy might need to exhibit greater capital discipline.

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