Bitcoin ‘never crossed’ $100K if adjusted for inflation, says Alex Thorn

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-24Last updated on 2025-12-24

Abstract

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, states that Bitcoin never reached $100,000 when adjusted for inflation. Although BTC hit a nominal all-time high of over $126,000 in October, its inflation-adjusted peak in 2020 dollars was $99,848. This calculation accounts for the decline in the U.S. dollar's purchasing power, which has fallen approximately 20% since 2020, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI shows prices are now 1.25 times higher than in 2020. The report highlights the accelerated decline of the U.S. dollar in 2025, with the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) falling 11% this year, contributing to the popularity of the "debasement trade" where investors seek assets that retain value as fiat currency weakens.

Bitcoin came just shy of hitting a milestone six figures when inflation is factored in, despite the cryptocurrency hitting an all-time peak of above $126,000 in October, says Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn.

“If you adjust the price of Bitcoin for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC never crossed $100,000,” Thorn said on Tuesday.

“It actually topped at $99,848 in 2020 dollar terms, if you can believe it.”

Thorn said his adjusted price high for Bitcoin (BTC) accounted for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline in purchasing power incrementally across every inflation print from 2020 to today.

CPI measures inflation via the prices of a basket of goods and services and is calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to track changes in spending habits.

The agency reported in November that the CPI rose 2.7% over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted, decreasing the purchasing power of the dollar, which has lost around 20% of its value since 2020.

BTC did not reach six figures if counted in 2020 dollars. Source: Galaxy Research

US inflation remains high

Today, the price of goods is 1.25 times higher than in 2020, according to the CPI, and a dollar today only buys around 80% of what it could buy back then.

Related: Bitcoin hunts liquidity as US CPI inflation drops to lowest since 2021

Inflation in the US skyrocketed above 9% in mid-2022 during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Dollar Index plunges in 2025

US dollar declines have accelerated this year as measured by the Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which compares the US dollar to a basket of global currencies.

The DXY has fallen 11% since the beginning of the year to 97.8, according to TradingView. The index hit a three-year low of 96.3 in September and has been trending downward since October 2022 as the dollar loses ground against other currencies.

This has given rise to the “debasement trade,” an investment strategy where traders buy assets they believe will hold or increase value as fiat currency loses purchasing power.

Magazine: Bitcoin may dip to $65K in 2026, Clarity Act speculation grows: Hodler’s Digest

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Related Questions

QAccording to Alex Thorn, what was Bitcoin's inflation-adjusted all-time high in 2020 dollar terms?

AAccording to Alex Thorn, Bitcoin's inflation-adjusted all-time high in 2020 dollar terms was $99,848.

QWhat is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and what does it measure?

AThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation via the prices of a basket of goods and services and is calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to track changes in spending habits.

QHow much has the US dollar's purchasing power decreased since 2020, as reported in the article?

AThe US dollar has lost around 20% of its value since 2020, meaning a dollar today only buys about 80% of what it could buy back then.

QWhat is the 'debasement trade' investment strategy mentioned in the article?

AThe 'debasement trade' is an investment strategy where traders buy assets they believe will hold or increase in value as fiat currency loses purchasing power.

QWhat was the reported year-over-year increase in the CPI in November, not seasonally adjusted?

AThe agency reported in November that the CPI rose 2.7% over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted.

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