Bernstein Analysis: Samsung's HBM4 Accelerates Volume, Q3 Revenue May Overtake SK Hynix

marsbitPublished on 2026-08-21Last updated on 2026-08-21

Abstract

South Korea’s July memory export data, serving as an early indicator for HBM business in Q3, shows overall HBM demand remains robust. While total exports to Taiwan and Malaysia declined 32% month-on-month from June’s peak—largely due to seasonality—they were still up 13% compared to April and rose 64% year-on-year. However, a divergence emerged between Samsung and SK Hynix. Samsung’s exports from Chungcheongnam-do (a proxy for its HBM shipments) surged, reaching $2.2 billion in July, up 122% from April. Based on regression analysis, Bernstein estimates Samsung’s Q3 HBM revenue could hit around $12 billion, roughly 30% above its prior forecast, driven by a rapid ramp in higher-value HBM4. The unit value of Samsung’s exports has doubled since April, signaling a shift toward HBM4, which carries a significantly higher price. In contrast, exports linked to SK Hynix from Chungcheongbuk-do and Icheon fell 28% month-on-month and 27% versus April. Bernstein’s base model suggests SK Hynix’s Q3 HBM revenue could drop to about $5.6 billion, though this could rebound to $12 billion if shipments concentrate later in the quarter as historically seen. The weakness may relate to potential delays in HBM4 shipments for Nvidia’s Rubin platform. Notably, HBM pricing is decoupling from general DRAM, with HBM4 mix driving average selling prices rather than broad-based hikes. Exports to Malaysia also surged, possibly linked to Intel’s EMIB packaging facilities, though the exact drivers remain unc...

South Korea's July memory export data provides the first set of leading indicators for Samsung and SK Hynix's third-quarter HBM business.

Bernstein has long tracked South Korea's multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan and Malaysia. The report believes these exports have a strong correlation with the quarterly HBM revenue of Samsung and SK Hynix: Taiwan is a key location for CoWoS advanced packaging, while Malaysia hosts Intel's EMIB packaging facilities.

In July, South Korea's multi-chip memory export value to Taiwan and Malaysia fell 32% from June's historical high. However, the report primarily attributes this change to intra-quarter seasonality. Compared to the first month of the previous quarter, April, July's export value still grew 13% and was up 64% year-over-year, indicating overall HBM demand has not significantly weakened.

While overall volume remains strong, the export trends of the two South Korean memory makers have diverged: Samsung's related exports continue to rise, while SK Hynix's related data is significantly below Bernstein's expectations.

Samsung's Q3 HBM Revenue Could Exceed Expectations by 30%

Bernstein uses exports from Chungcheongnam-do as a proxy indicator for Samsung's HBM shipments, as Samsung's related back-end production and packaging facilities are primarily located in this region.

In July, Chungcheongnam-do's multi-chip memory export value to Taiwan and Malaysia reached $2.2 billion. Although this represents a 35% decline from June's seasonal high, it is up 122% compared to April. Samsung's related export value has also exceeded SK Hynix's for two consecutive months.

Based on the regression relationship between historical export data and HBM revenue, Bernstein calculates that Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue may reach approximately $12 billion, representing roughly 80% quarter-on-quarter growth and about 30% higher than its original forecast of around $9.3 billion.

If only recent data since Q1 2025 is used for regression, the forecast value further rises to $12.6 billion, corresponding to approximately 90% quarter-on-quarter growth.

South Korea's monthly multi-chip memory export value (billions USD) to Taiwan and Malaysia and year-over-year growth rate. Although July export value declined month-over-month due to seasonal factors, it still grew 64% year-over-year, indicating strong overall HBM demand.

However, this figure remains a model estimate, not company guidance. Samsung's exports are typically concentrated in the latter two months of a quarter. Since 2025, the first month of a quarter has on average accounted for less than 20% of the quarter's total export volume. Therefore, whether Q3 revenue ultimately reaches the model's forecast will depend on actual shipments in August and September.

Bernstein believes the July data is at least consistent with the direction Samsung previously indicated: the company expects Q3 HBM4 sales to grow more than threefold quarter-on-quarter, and for HBM4 to account for over 60% of HBM sales in the second half of 2026.

Unit Value Doubles, HBM4 Becomes Samsung's Growth Driver

In addition to export volume, the unit value of Samsung's related product exports has also risen significantly.

Left: Chungcheongnam-do (location of Samsung HBM packaging) multi-chip memory export value (millions USD) to Taiwan and Malaysia compared to Samsung's quarterly average HBM revenue. July export value reached $2.2 billion, up 122% from April, exceeding SK Hynix for the second consecutive month. Right: Regression analysis based on historical data shows July export data suggests Samsung's Q3 2026 HBM revenue could reach $12 billion, up ~80% QoQ, ~30% higher than Bernstein's original forecast.

In July, the unit value of multi-chip memory exports from Chungcheongnam-do increased 21% month-over-month, more than doubling from April levels and nearing four times that of SK Hynix's related regions. Given HBM4's higher capacity, stack layers, and technical complexity, Bernstein believes this change likely reflects the rapid increase in the proportion of Samsung's HBM4 shipments.

This does not mean the price of Samsung's same-spec HBM doubled within a few months. Export unit value is also influenced by product mix, capacity specifications, and packaging combinations, and can only serve as a directional indicator for average selling prices. A more reasonable explanation is: Samsung is replacing some HBM3 and HBM3E with higher-priced HBM4, thereby lifting overall export value.

This is also key to Samsung potentially regaining market share. Previously, SK Hynix held a leading position with HBM3E and closer supply relationships with Nvidia; as the cycle moves into HBM4, the competitive focus is shifting to who can complete verification earlier, improve yields, and achieve volume delivery.

SK Hynix Exports Weaken, But Single-Month Data Doesn't Directly Equate to Share Reversal

In contrast to Samsung, SK Hynix's related exports weakened noticeably in July.

Bernstein uses exports from Chungcheongbuk-do and Icheon as proxy indicators for SK Hynix's HBM shipments. In July, export value from these two regions fell 28% from June and also declined about 27% compared to April.

The base regression model calculates that based on this, SK Hynix's Q3 HBM revenue might only be $5.6 billion, down about 20% quarter-on-quarter, 55% lower than Bernstein's original forecast. If this materializes, Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue would significantly overtake SK Hynix's.

However, the uncertainty of this prediction is much higher than for Samsung. The report also points out that if using SK Hynix's historical seasonal pattern where shipments are most concentrated in the latter part of the quarter, its Q3 HBM revenue could still reach $12 billion, close to Bernstein's original forecast.

In other words, the same set of July data, under different seasonal assumptions, could correspond to a vast range from $5.6 billion to $12 billion. At this stage, a more prudent judgment is not that "SK Hynix has already lost its lead," but that its Q3 start is weaker than expected, and its ability to catch up in August and September will determine the final share.

Bernstein speculates the weakness may stem from delays in Rubin-related HBM4 shipments. SK Hynix previously stated that HBM4 began mass production in Q2 and will ramp up fully in the second half of the year. However, attributing the July export decline directly to Nvidia's Rubin progress remains an analyst inference based on industry cadence and has not been explicitly confirmed by the related companies.

HBM Not Following Traditional DRAM Price Hikes Synchronously

The report also notes that HBM and traditional memory price trends are diverging.

Since Q3 2025, traditional memory prices have risen approximately fivefold cumulatively, but the export unit value of SK Hynix's related products has remained generally flat. Samsung's unit value roughly doubled, also primarily due to the increased proportion of HBM4, rather than significant simultaneous price hikes for existing products like HBM3E.

This means HBM's contract pricing, supply relationships, and product iteration cycles are partially decoupling it from traditional DRAM spot price fluctuations. Short-term price increases in traditional DRAM do not necessarily transmit proportionally to HBM, whose profit changes rely more on the proportion of new-generation products and annual customer contracts.

Bernstein believes suppliers and customers have already begun negotiating 2027 HBM contracts, and expected price increases are likely to drive further upward revisions to next year's profit forecasts for Samsung and SK Hynix. Compared to share changes in a single quarter like Q3, this may be a more important pricing variable for the memory sector in the next stage.

Malaysia Export Surge Remains an Unresolved Variable in the Supply Chain

In July, South Korea's multi-chip memory export value to Malaysia increased 20% month-over-month to approximately $1.3 billion, continuing the rapid growth of the past few quarters. Samsung still accounts for most of this, but SK Hynix's exports also increased noticeably.

Bernstein speculates these HBMs may be destined for Intel's EMIB advanced packaging facilities in Malaysia, for use in server chips equipped with HBM. However, the report also acknowledges it is currently difficult to explain why related exports are growing so early, well before product mass production.

Therefore, exports to Malaysia are better suited as a subsequent supply chain clue rather than being directly equated to Intel customer orders or specific product ramp-up.

Overall, the July data strengthens the logic of Samsung catching up in the HBM4 cycle, but is not yet sufficient to confirm a long-term market share reversal has occurred. What truly needs observation next is whether Samsung can sustain export growth in August and September, and whether SK Hynix can recover the shipment gap from the start of Q3 as HBM4 ramps up.

Share Reversal Still Awaits August and September Data

The July export data strengthens the logic of Samsung accelerating its catch-up in the HBM4 cycle: related export volume grew significantly, unit value rose rapidly, and it corroborates the company's HBM4 sales guidance.

However, this data is still insufficient to confirm Samsung has regained HBM leadership on a full-year basis.

First, Bernstein uses a regression model between regional exports and company revenue, not actual corporate order data. Second, if HBM packaging moves outside South Korea, or some products undergo further packaging within South Korea, customs data may not fully capture the activity. Finally, single-month exports can also be affected by customer acceptance, shipping schedules, and quarterly seasonality.

Three variables need to be observed next: whether Samsung's August and September exports can continue growing, whether SK Hynix's exports and unit value recover as HBM4 ramps, and whether the two companies' 2027 HBM contract prices can truly be raised.

If Samsung's exports continue to grow and SK Hynix fails to catch up, HBM4 could drive more substantive changes in market share; if SK Hynix concentrates deliveries in the latter two months of the quarter, July's divergence is more likely just a timing mismatch in shipments.

Therefore, what the current data truly changes is not that the HBM competition already has a result, but that the speed at which Samsung is re-entering the share race may be faster than the market previously expected.

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Related Questions

QAccording to Bernstein's analysis, what is the predicted HBM revenue for Samsung in Q3 based on July export data, and how does it compare to their previous forecast?

ABased on the regression model using July export data from Chungcheongnam-do, Bernstein predicts that Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue may reach approximately $12 billion, representing a sequential growth of about 80%. This is roughly 30% higher than Bernstein's previous forecast of about $9.3 billion.

QWhat key factor does Bernstein suggest is driving the increase in Samsung's export unit value for multi-chip memory?

ABernstein suggests that the primary driver behind the increase in Samsung's export unit value is the rapid rise in the proportion of HBM4 shipments. HBM4 has higher capacity, more stacking layers, and greater technical complexity, commanding a higher price and thus lifting the overall average export value.

QWhy is Bernstein's Q3 HBM revenue forecast for SK Hynix subject to a much wider range of uncertainty compared to Samsung's?

AThe forecast for SK Hynix has high uncertainty because the same July export data, depending on different seasonal shipment pattern assumptions, can imply a wide range of possible Q3 revenues—from $5.6 billion to $12 billion. If SK Hynix's shipments are heavily concentrated in the latter part of the quarter (as has been historical), the revenue could still meet original forecasts.

QHow has the pricing trend for HBM diverged from that of traditional DRAM, according to the report?

AThe report notes that HBM pricing has diverged from traditional DRAM. While traditional DRAM spot prices have risen significantly since Q3 2025, HBM prices (particularly for products like HBM3E) have remained relatively stable. Increases in average selling prices are more attributed to product mix shifts (e.g., higher-priced HBM4) rather than broad-based price hikes across all HBM generations.

QWhat are the three key variables Bernstein identifies as needing observation to determine if a market share reversal is occurring between Samsung and SK Hynix?

ABernstein identifies three key variables to watch: 1) Whether Samsung's exports continue to grow in August and September. 2) Whether SK Hynix's exports and unit value recover as its HBM4 production ramps up. 3) The outcome of 2027 HBM contract price negotiations between suppliers and customers.

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This dual approach empowers it to build a rich repository of domain-specific knowledge, enhancing its performance in task execution. Planning Over Long Task Horizons: Agent S employs experience-augmented hierarchical planning, a strategic approach that facilitates efficient breakdown and execution of intricate tasks. This feature significantly enhances its ability to manage multiple subtasks efficiently and effectively. Handling Dynamic, Non-Uniform Interfaces: The project introduces the Agent-Computer Interface (ACI), an innovative solution that enhances the interaction between agents and users. Utilizing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), Agent S can navigate and manipulate diverse graphical user interfaces seamlessly. Through these pioneering features, Agent S provides a robust framework that addresses the complexities involved in automating human interaction with machines, setting the stage for myriad applications in AI and beyond. Who is the Creator of Agent S? While the concept of Agent S is fundamentally innovative, specific information about its creator remains elusive. The creator is currently unknown, which highlights either the nascent stage of the project or the strategic choice to keep founding members under wraps. Regardless of anonymity, the focus remains on the framework's capabilities and potential. Who are the Investors of Agent S? As Agent S is relatively new in the cryptographic ecosystem, detailed information regarding its investors and financial backers is not explicitly documented. The lack of publicly available insights into the investment foundations or organisations supporting the project raises questions about its funding structure and development roadmap. Understanding the backing is crucial for gauging the project's sustainability and potential market impact. How Does Agent S Work? At the core of Agent S lies cutting-edge technology that enables it to function effectively in diverse settings. Its operational model is built around several key features: Human-like Computer Interaction: The framework offers advanced AI planning, striving to make interactions with computers more intuitive. By mimicking human behaviour in tasks execution, it promises to elevate user experiences. Narrative Memory: Employed to leverage high-level experiences, Agent S utilises narrative memory to keep track of task histories, thereby enhancing its decision-making processes. Episodic Memory: This feature provides users with step-by-step guidance, allowing the framework to offer contextual support as tasks unfold. Support for OpenACI: With the ability to run locally, Agent S allows users to maintain control over their interactions and workflows, aligning with the decentralised ethos of Web3. Easy Integration with External APIs: Its versatility and compatibility with various AI platforms ensure that Agent S can fit seamlessly into existing technological ecosystems, making it an appealing choice for developers and organisations. These functionalities collectively contribute to Agent S's unique position within the crypto space, as it automates complex, multi-step tasks with minimal human intervention. As the project evolves, its potential applications in Web3 could redefine how digital interactions unfold. Timeline of Agent S The development and milestones of Agent S can be encapsulated in a timeline that highlights its significant events: September 27, 2024: The concept of Agent S was launched in a comprehensive research paper titled “An Open Agentic Framework that Uses Computers Like a Human,” showcasing the groundwork for the project. October 10, 2024: The research paper was made publicly available on arXiv, offering an in-depth exploration of the framework and its performance evaluation based on the OSWorld benchmark. October 12, 2024: A video presentation was released, providing a visual insight into the capabilities and features of Agent S, further engaging potential users and investors. These markers in the timeline not only illustrate the progress of Agent S but also indicate its commitment to transparency and community engagement. Key Points About Agent S As the Agent S framework continues to evolve, several key attributes stand out, underscoring its innovative nature and potential: Innovative Framework: Designed to provide an intuitive use of computers akin to human interaction, Agent S brings a novel approach to task automation. Autonomous Interaction: The ability to interact autonomously with computers through GUI signifies a leap towards more intelligent and efficient computing solutions. Complex Task Automation: With its robust methodology, it can automate complex, multi-step tasks, making processes faster and less error-prone. Continuous Improvement: The learning mechanisms enable Agent S to improve from past experiences, continually enhancing its performance and efficacy. Versatility: Its adaptability across different operating environments like OSWorld and WindowsAgentArena ensures that it can serve a broad range of applications. As Agent S positions itself in the Web3 and crypto landscape, its potential to enhance interaction capabilities and automate processes signifies a significant advancement in AI technologies. Through its innovative framework, Agent S exemplifies the future of digital interactions, promising a more seamless and efficient experience for users across various industries. Conclusion Agent S represents a bold leap forward in the marriage of AI and Web3, with the capacity to redefine how we interact with technology. While still in its early stages, the possibilities for its application are vast and compelling. Through its comprehensive framework addressing critical challenges, Agent S aims to bring autonomous interactions to the forefront of the digital experience. As we move deeper into the realms of cryptocurrency and decentralisation, projects like Agent S will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the future of technology and human-computer collaboration.

1.1k Total ViewsPublished 2025.01.14Updated 2025.01.14

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