Brokers are awaiting clarifications from the Central Bank regarding cryptocurrency trading on Russian exchanges. On August 11th, it became known that officially permitted trading of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and $USDT will be allowed. Qualified investors will be able to do this without restrictions, while limits of 300 thousand rubles per year will be set for others. However, to begin with, everyone will have to undergo testing and familiarize themselves with all the risks, as reported by the Bank of Russia.
Under the new law, cryptocurrency is primarily an investment. Participants are left with little to do: buy and wait for the price to rise. Although, as experts interviewed by "Kommersant FM" believe, the timing is not very fortunate: the market is in a bearish trend. So, at least initially, demand on the exchange will be low. Whether it will be as isolated from the external world as Russia's stock market depends on what access to foreign platforms remains, notes Nikita Zuborev, senior analyst at Bestchange.ru:
"The example of South Korean crypto exchanges shows that a problem arises because only South Korean citizens can trade on them. Therefore, the rate there was noticeably higher than the market average, and there was no ability to quickly arbitrage the price difference. At least for now, it is stated that there will be an opportunity to withdraw this cryptocurrency further. How this will be implemented in practice will become clear when brokers and banks launch all the necessary tools."
September 1st is the starting point for the transition period: from this moment, the Central Bank's registry for market participants requiring permits and licenses will launch: exchangers, depositories, banks, brokers, and investors. Key changes will come in mid-2027, says Andrey Tugarin, Managing Partner of GMT Legal law firm:
"The most interesting thing is that from July 1, 2027, Russian banks will have to refuse clients' requests to replenish cryptocurrency wallets on foreign platforms through them. Furthermore, banks will not be able to directly accept rubles from such platforms if a client of a Russian bank sold cryptocurrency there for rubles and withdrew the funds to Russia."
For the nascent Russian crypto exchange, the Central Bank has chosen the highest-capitalization assets. However, Anton Gorelkin, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy, Information Technologies and Communications, expressed doubts about the reliability of $USDT. The Chairman of PSB, Petr Fradkov, spoke about the same thing. Large investors indeed have something to fear, says Dmitry Alexandrov, Deputy General Director of Renaissance Capital:
"$USDT is a quasi-dollar, relevant both for settlements and as a bet on the American currency. There is a certain vulnerability to new sanctions.
All these things will be trackable, because trading will one way or another lead to centralization, and that, probably, main effect of anonymity, for which cryptocurrencies are valued, will fade."
Nevertheless, abandoning the asset would be unfair, believes Andrey Tugarin, Managing Partner of GMT Legal law firm:
"$USDT is the most sanction-dangerous asset: you could wake up and find all your thousands or millions of $USDT frozen. No court decision is required for this—the issuer's decision is enough. But how can one manage without $USDT at all? In the world of cryptocurrencies, it is irreplaceable: by transaction volume per year, it has already surpassed Visa and Mastercard combined.
Therefore, not including $USDT in the Russian circuit is essentially the same as abandoning the entire crypto market."
At the same time, the Law on Digital Currencies exempts foreign economic trade from most restrictions. It would seem like good news for business. However, as media learned, large banks are already asking for explanations regarding the economic sense of operations to purchase stablecoins. This was confirmed to "Kommersant FM," including by Sovcombank.
Angela Goplevskaya
