Predicting the Dormant Period of Market Heat, Polymarket Prepares a Killer Move to Catch Up with Kalshi

marsbitPublished on 2026-08-12Last updated on 2026-08-12

Abstract

Following a period of lower trading activity after the World Cup and during a sports offseason, Polymarket is restructuring in preparation for upcoming major sports events and the US midterm elections in November. Key personnel changes include the appointment of Travis VanderZanden, former Bird founder and Uber/Lyft executive, as Chief Growth Officer to oversee marketing. The company has also hired executives from Robinhood, Coinbase, Nasdaq, and the FBI to strengthen compliance, risk management, and regulatory functions. This push supports Polymarket's renewed focus on the US market after its 2022 exit due to regulatory issues. Its US re-entry accelerated with the 2025 acquisition of licensed exchange QCEX, rebranded as Polymarket US. After launching on iOS in May, a web version recently went live. Trading volume on Polymarket US has surged, growing from $1.77 billion in May to approximately $5 billion in July. This represents 62% of the international platform's volume, up from just 25% two months prior. VanderZanden's immediate task involves addressing past marketing controversies, including CFTC investigations into promotional practices that used simulated trades. The company has since reformed its marketing rules and partner vetting. Despite rapid growth, Polymarket US still trails the US prediction market leader, Kalshi, which saw about $37.7 billion in July volume compared to Polymarket's combined ~$13 billion. Kalshi's valuation also significantly outpaces Polymark...

Author | Asher(@Asher_ 0210)

After the World Cup, with most other popular sports events also being in the off-season recently, trading enthusiasm on Polymarket has declined. The platform recently conducted a round of intensive adjustments to management, market direction, and promotion strategies to prepare for upcoming popular sports events and the US midterm elections in November.

In terms of personnel, Travis VanderZanden, founder of shared electric scooter company Bird and former executive at Uber and Lyft, has joined Polymarket as Chief Growth Officer, responsible for the company's marketing system. Additionally, Polymarket has recruited several executives from institutions like Robinhood, Coinbase, Nasdaq, and the FBI, covering compliance, regulation, investigation, and risk management roles.

Furthermore, Polymarket continues to exert efforts in returning to the US market. The series of upcoming sports events and political events are also expected to further boost trading heat for its US business.

One Year After Returning to the US, Polymarket US Enters Growth Phase

From Acquiring a Licensed Exchange to Launching a Web Version, Polymarket US Accelerates Rollout

In 2022, Polymarket reached a settlement with the CFTC for unregistered derivatives trading business and exited the US market.

It wasn't until July 2025 that Polymarket paved the way for its US return by acquiring CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearing agency QCEX for $112 million. Subsequently, QCX LLC operated under the name Polymarket US and, in November of that year, obtained an amended order from the CFTC, further solidifying its foundation for conducting regulated trading in the US.

In December of the same year, Polymarket US began opening to users on the waitlist; in May this year, Polymarket US was fully opened to US iOS users. Just yesterday, community members reported that Polymarket US has launched a web version, continuing to expand channels accessible to US users.

Polymarket US Trading Volume Continues to Grow, Gradually Approaching Polymarket International

In May this year, as access for US users gradually opened, Polymarket US trading volume began to show significant growth.

According to Dune data, Polymarket US trading volume in May was $1.769 billion, while Polymarket International's volume was $7.077 billion during the same period, with US volume being about 25% of International's. By June, Polymarket US trading volume rapidly increased to $4.041 billion, more than doubling from May. International volume for the same period was $10.773 billion, bringing the ratio to about 38%.

In July, this gap narrowed further. Polymarket US monthly trading volume reached approximately $5 billion, setting a new high, while International's July volume was only $8.044 billion. US volume was equivalent to 62% of International's, whereas just two months prior this ratio was only 25%.

With user access increasing and trading scale continuing to rise, Polymarket now needs not only to further acquire US users but also to face a series of more specific issues like marketing, compliance, and risk management. Therefore, growth, marketing, compliance, and risk control have become the most concentrated areas in this round of team adjustments.

Simultaneously Adding Staff for Growth and Compliance, But First Must Address Previous Marketing Issues

After taking over marketing operations, Travis VanderZanden, founder of Bird and former Uber and Lyft executive, must first deal with the promotional controversies left from earlier actions.

Previously, a Wall Street Journal investigation found that Polymarket had used promotional partners to have content creators display simulated trading. Some videos used website interfaces highly similar to the real Polymarket, leading viewers to believe the creators were conducting real trades and making profits. The related investigation stated that approximately $1.9 million in bets shown across over 1,100 related videos were simulated trades. Subsequently, the CFTC launched an investigation into Polymarket's related marketing practices.

Polymarket then began rectifying its marketing system, including restructuring the marketing department, updating rules for promotion partners, and conducting relevant training for employees. The company also hired consulting firm AlixPartners to review content released by partners, checking for compliance with new promotion guidelines.

Therefore, VanderZanden's task upon joining Polymarket is not merely to continue expanding the user base. He is taking over a marketing system still under adjustment. Polymarket US is currently continuing to expand user access, with trading volume also in a growth phase. With more sports events and political events on the horizon, the platform hopes to further attract US users and increase trading activity. However, previous regulatory investigations also mean that some of the more aggressive promotion methods used in the past can no longer be readily employed.

Autumn is the Real Test, Polymarket Still Needs to Catch Up with Kalshi

In the US prediction market, Kalshi still holds a significant lead over Polymarket US. In July, Kalshi's monthly trading volume was approximately $37.7 billion, Polymarket US about $5 billion, and Polymarket International about $8 billion for the same period—the two platforms combined about $13 billion, less than one-third of Kalshi's. Moreover, Kalshi's business is almost entirely concentrated in the US market.

This gap is also reflected in capital market valuations. At the end of June, Kalshi was negotiating a new round of financing with a target valuation of about $40 billion; just a month earlier, the company had completed a $1 billion funding round with a valuation of $22 billion at that time. In contrast, Polymarket was valued at about $9 billion in October 2025. After completing approximately $1 billion in financing in April this year, its valuation rose to $15 billion. Entering August, it began seeking another round of about $1 billion in financing, targeting a valuation exceeding $20 billion.

After September, a series of popular sports events and the US midterm elections in November will arrive. The US compliant prediction market is Kalshi's foundation and is also becoming Polymarket's most important growth engine. For Polymarket, the next few months will be a critical window for US to further expand trading scale. How effective this round of team adjustments will be will also soon be put to the test.

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Related Questions

QAccording to the article, what was the key reason behind Polymarket's recent management and strategy adjustments?

AThe article states that Polymarket is adjusting its management, market direction, and promotion strategies in preparation for upcoming hot sports events and the US mid-term elections in November.

QWhat steps did Polymarket take to facilitate its return to the US market in 2025?

AIn 2025, Polymarket acquired CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearing agency QCEX for $112 million, paving the way for its US return. The entity QCX LLC then operated as Polymarket US and obtained a revised CFTC Designation Order in November of that year.

QHow did the trading volume of Polymarket US change from May to July, and how did it compare to Polymarket International?

AThe trading volume of Polymarket US grew significantly from $1.769 billion in May to over $5 billion in July. Its proportion compared to Polymarket International's volume increased from 25% in May to 62% in July.

QWhat was the main marketing controversy Polymarket faced, and what actions did the company take in response?

APolymarket faced a controversy where promotional partners used simulated trading on websites that looked very similar to the real Polymarket platform, misleading viewers. Over 1,100 videos showcased about $1.9 million in simulated bets. In response, Polymarket restructured its marketing department, updated partner rules, trained employees, and hired AlixPartners to audit partner content for compliance.

QWhat is the competitive landscape between Polymarket and Kalshi in the US prediction market as described in the article?

AKalshi holds a significant lead over Polymarket in the US. In July, Kalshi's monthly trading volume was about $37.7 billion, while Polymarket US and International combined had about $13 billion, which is less than one-third of Kalshi's volume. Kalshi's valuation was also much higher, targeting around $40 billion in June compared to Polymarket's valuation of over $20 billion in August.

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The technical implementation introduces multiple layers of security, compliance, and operational efficiency to meet institutional standards while enhancing accessibility. The tokenisation process begins by acquiring actual Salesforce stock through U.S.-registered broker-dealers, ensuring each CRMON token maintains direct correlation with the underlying equity performance. Smart contracts automate operational processes, including dividend reinvestment and corporate action processing, facilitating a streamlined user experience. The Minting and redemption processes allow authorised participants to manage CRMON tokens effectively. During U.S. trading hours, institutions can mint new tokens by depositing stablecoins that are used to purchase corresponding Salesforce equity. This structure maintains a tight correlation with underlying assets, enhancing liquidity and price discovery. Additionally, the infrastructure supports twenty-four-hour token transfer capabilities, providing CRMON holders with operations outside traditional market hours. This represents a significant advantage over conventional securities ownership, thus promoting integration with decentralised finance applications. Plans for cross-chain compatibility through partnerships signal further ambitions for CRMON's market reach. By expanding to other blockchain networks, Ondo Finance aims to enhance accessibility and user engagement with tokenised equity products. Timeline and Historical Development of Tokenized Equity Innovation The timeline of CRMON's development and Ondo Finance's broader tokenised capabilities demonstrates a systematic innovation process beginning with the company's founding in 2021. 2021: Ondo Finance is founded by Nathan Allman and co-founders, launching initial products focused on structured vault offerings on the Ethereum blockchain. 2022: The company completes substantial funding rounds—both equity and token sales—totaling significant capital and launching initial tokenised U.S. Treasury products. 2023-2024: Ondo Finance experiences substantial growth, establishing partnerships with major financial institutions while expanding its product offerings beyond fixed-income securities. February 2025: Ondo Global Markets is announced, marking the transition into equity tokenisation with plans for accessing over one hundred U.S. stocks and ETFs. September 2025: The official launch of Ondo Global Markets includes CRMON alongside other tokenised equity offerings, marking a significant evolution in Ondo Finance's product ecosystem. This timeline highlights the organisation's rapid growth and its capability to adapt its technological and compliance frameworks to accommodate different asset classes effectively while maintaining security and regulatory integrity. Regulatory Framework and Compliance Approach Ondo Finance's regulatory framework showcases a sophisticated compliance strategy, essential for achieving institutional adoption in the tokenised securities market. The company's strong partnerships with U.S.-registered broker-dealers promote adherence to Securities and Exchange Commission regulations and apply robust investor protections. Acquisitions, such as Oasis Pro—a registered broker-dealer—significantly enhance Ondo Finance's compliance capabilities, ensuring thorough alignment with existing regulatory structures. The company employs independent verification procedures that foster transparency, aiming for a solid performance standards reputation. Furthermore, Ondo Finance's commitment extends to international regulatory compliance, ensuring token access remains restricted to eligible investors while adhering to pertinent cross-border securities regulations. Comprehensive attention to tax implications and reporting requirements fortifies the security and compliance landscape of CRMON, ensuring that investor obligations remain manageable. Future Prospects and Market Positioning The forward-looking landscape for CRMON and Ondo Finance illustrates substantial growth opportunities driven by institutional adoption of blockchain technology and escalating demand for efficient alternatives to conventional securities ownership. Market projections indicate the tokenised asset sector could value multiple trillion dollars by 2030. With plans to scale CRMON offerings significantly and integrate it with a dedicated blockchain infrastructure—Ondo Chain—Ondo Finance aims to elevate its institutional-grade tokenised asset operations. Additionally, the development of strategic partnerships enhances distribution capabilities while establishing the company's credibility in the financial market. Furthermore, the integration of tokenised equity with decentralised finance protocols offers new potential for innovative financial products and strategies previously impossible with traditional securities. These factors underscore CRMON's positioning to effectively capture increased market share and deliver innovative solutions for international investment exposure. Conclusion Salesforce Tokenized Stock (CRMON) symbolises a transformative development within financial markets, successfully bridging traditional equity ownership with blockchain technology to create unprecedented accessibility for global investors. Through Ondo Finance's sophisticated tokenisation framework, CRMON provides complete economic exposure to Salesforce equity performance while enhancing operational advantages that exceed traditional ownership. The launch of CRMON reflects the broader evolution of financial markets towards blockchain infrastructures that maintain regulatory compliance while delivering increased efficiency. Ondo Finance's extensive approach to regulatory adherence, institutional-grade security, and technological innovation solidifies CRMON as a model for future tokenised securities, delivering access previously unattainable in conventional brokerage structures. As the tokenised asset sector continues to develop, CRMON is well-positioned to address historical inefficiencies in capital markets while providing investors with innovative solutions for accessing traditional securities. The outlook for CRMON looks exceptionally promising, supported by ambitious expansion plans, technological innovations, and strategic partnerships, thereby representing a pioneering model of modern financial infrastructure evolving through blockchain integration.

4.5k Total ViewsPublished 2025.12.05Updated 2025.12.05

What is CRMON

What is SHOPON

Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo): A Comprehensive Analysis of Real-World Asset Tokenization in Web3 This article delves into the Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), recognised by its ticker symbol $SHOPON, exploring its implications at the intersection of traditional finance and blockchain technology. As a part of Ondo Finance's tokenized securities platform, Shopify’s tokenized stock exemplifies advancements in democratizing access to global capital markets through innovative digital assets. Introduction and Overview of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), or $SHOPON, portrays a pivotal innovation in the realm of tokenized securities, allowing investors to gain economic exposure akin to directly owning shares of Shopify Inc. This token, developed under the umbrella of Ondo Finance, not only provides investors with the ability to hold digital representations of the company’s stock but also integrates features such as automatic reinvestment of dividends. This advancement represents a substantial shift in the landscape of decentralized finance (DeFi), linking conventional equity markets with blockchain solutions designed to enhance accessibility, transparency, and liquidity. By eliminating geographical barriers and enabling 24/7 trading capabilities, $SHOPON is positioned as a bridge connecting traditional financial instruments and the emerging Web3 ecosystem. What is Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), $SHOPON? The $SHOPON token serves as a digital manifestation of Shopify Inc.'s shares, engineered to provide a direct correlation to the underlying asset's performance. Through the utilization of blockchain technology, the token gives holders a mechanism to participate in the economic benefits associated with equity ownership, including capital appreciation and dividend distribution. The unique aspect of $SHOPON lies in its automatic dividend reinvestment mechanism, which allows returns to compound without necessitating active management by the investor. This feature inherently enhances its attractiveness as an investment vehicle, particularly for individuals seeking passive income growth alongside exposure to high-performing equities. The tokenization process is facilitated by the custody of actual Shopify shares through regulated intermediaries, ensuring that every $SHOPON token is verifiably backed by real equity. This structure empowers investors with the dual advantages of both traditional financial characteristics and the innovative benefits tied to blockchain technology. Who is the Creator of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo)? The creator of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), Nathan Allman, is an experienced figure in the finance sector, formerly associated with Goldman Sachs. His rich background includes significant expertise in digital asset development, bridging the gap between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies. Allman’s educational journey, marked by studies at Brown University, provided him with a deep understanding of economics and biology, equipping him with analytical skills that inform his strategic vision. In 2021, he founded Ondo Finance, committing to developing tokenized securities that meet institutional-grade standards while leveraging blockchain's transformative capabilities. Under Allman's leadership, Ondo Finance has focused on creating compliant and innovative financial products that empower a diverse investor base. Who are the Investors of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo)? The investment landscape surrounding Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) is notably robust, underpinned by significant institutional support. Primarily, Pantera Capital stands out as a strategic partner through the Ondo Catalyst initiative, a $250 million commitment aimed at accelerating the development of on-chain capital markets. This partnership not only signifies institutional confidence in the potential of tokenized assets but also reinforces Ondo Finance's operational capabilities and market positioning. The funding pathways have included earlier rounds that amassed millions in seed funding and further structural investments, solidifying relationships with both venture capital firms and private investors. Moreover, the financial framework is complemented by strategic partnerships with established financial institutions and technology companies, enhancing Ondo’s infrastructure and operational expertise. How Does Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), $SHOPON Work? At the core of $SHOPON's operational framework is a sophisticated system integrating traditional finance mechanisms with blockchain technology. The custody of actual Shopify shares ensures that token holders retain authentic economic exposure, safeguarding their investments in line with recognized legal structures. The smart contracts employed in managing $SHOPON handle various functions, including automatic dividend reinvestment and ownership transfer, offering instant settlement and increased liquidity, marking a significant departure from conventional trading systems plagued by multi-day settlement delays. By providing interoperability with other decentralized finance applications, $SHOPON empowers holders with potentially lucrative opportunities for advanced investment strategies, including lending and automated market making. This complex integration presents a unique value proposition, catering to both traditional and crypto-native investors. The innovative structure of $SHOPON also allows for real-time settlements and transactions documented on the blockchain, delivering unparalleled transparency and security—a major advancement over standard equity trading practices. Timeline of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) March 2021: Nathan Allman establishes Ondo Finance, initially focusing on decentralized finance yield optimization. August 2021: Completion of a $4 million seed funding round led by Pantera Capital. January 2023: Launch of initial tokenized treasury security products, laying the groundwork for future equity tokenization. July 2025: Announcement of the Ondo Catalyst initiative, a strategic investment program valued at $250 million, aimed at propelling the development of tokenization in capital markets. September 3, 2025: Launch of Ondo Global Markets featuring over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs, including $SHOPON. Technical Implementation and Blockchain Infrastructure Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) operates on a technical architectural framework that marries blockchain protocols with traditional financial custody arrangements. The ecosystem leverages Ethereum's smart contract capabilities, providing seamless transaction management while ensuring compliance with regulatory standards through established financial custodians. Central to this architecture are security measures and transparent transaction records that affirm the legitimacy of each tokenholder's economic stake. With automated features managed by intricate smart contracts, $SHOPON not only streamlines ownership transfers but also allows for the tactical reinvestment of dividends—a hallmark of modern investment strategies. Moreover, the incorporation of LayerZero technology facilitates cross-chain interoperability, making $SHOPON accessible across multiple blockchain environments while preserving its functional robustness. This forward-thinking technical design positions $SHOPON as an adaptable asset within the larger DeFi milieu. Regulatory Framework and Compliance Architecture $SHOPON's regulatory framework is built upon the meticulous navigation of existing financial regulations that govern securities. The custody arrangements for the underlying Shopify shares are managed by U.S.-regulated broker-dealers, ensuring compliance and protection for investors. By maintaining a separation between the blockchain tokenization process and traditional custody, $SHOPON adheres to legal requirements while offering innovative functionalities that challenge conventional constraints. This dual-layered compliance approach enhances investor confidence and underscores Ondo Finance's commitment to regulatory integrity. Notably, the availability of $SHOPON is tailored to international investors from regions such as Asia-Pacific, Europe, and Africa, as regulatory parameters in the U.S. and U.K. present challenges in accessing tokenized securities. Market Access and Global Distribution Strategy The distribution strategy of $SHOPON is keenly designed to optimize global access while conforming to regulatory standards. The platform aims to establish comprehensive coverage for eligible investors across multiple regions, effectively dismantling traditional barriers through the implementation of blockchain technology. Integration with various cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges also promotes user-friendliness and accessibility, establishing a streamlined experience for investors to manage their holdings. Moreover, the 24/7 trading capabilities afforded by the tokenized model allow participants to react promptly to market shifts, fundamentally transforming how global equities are accessed and traded. Technology Integration and Cross-Chain Functionality The remarkable technological underpinnings of $SHOPON propagate its multi-chain functionality, set to expand its reach beyond Ethereum to networks such as Solana and BNB Chain. Such cross-chain capabilities allow users flexibility when navigating between blockchains, concurrently leveraging distinct network attributes to optimize their trading experience. LayerZero serves as the backbone for ensuring decentralized transfers between networks while providing the requisite security and speed, quintessential for maintaining investor trust. This comprehensive interoperability illustrates $SHOPON's commitment to being a versatile, user-centric asset in the evolving investment landscape. Ecosystem Integration and DeFi Compatibility Incorporating $SHOPON into broader DeFi protocols signifies its potential beyond traditional stock ownership. Token holders can leverage their holdings for various sophisticated strategies and applications, enhancing investment returns and liquidity management. By establishing a presence in lending protocols and automated trading systems, $SHOPON effectively democratizes access to advanced financial strategies previously limited to institutional investors. Such integration contributes to a more competitive and dynamic financial landscape, where individual investors can capitalize on tools typically reserved for larger entities. Risk Management and Security Framework Security remains paramount in the operational infrastructure of $SHOPON. The tokenization framework employs multiple layers of protection—beginning with regulated custody of the underlying Shopify shares. The operational protocols establish rigorous auditing, key management, and transaction monitoring standards, thus safeguarding against potential vulnerabilities. Moreover, meticulous adherence to evolving regulatory requirements provides an extra layer of security, fortifying investor protections and institutional compliance. Market Impact and Industry Implications The introduction of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) heralds a transformative shift in how financial markets operate, emphasizing the potential of tokenized securities to reshape traditional investment paradigms. The successful integration of $SHOPON encapsulates the efficiencies inherent in blockchain technology and opens avenues for new user demographics previously barred from extensive market participation. The impact extends beyond the immediate benefits to token holders, indicating broader trends that may challenge the status quo of investment services, particularly in addressing geographic restrictions and operational costs typically associated with traditional brokerage platforms. Undeniably, $SHOPON encapsulates the potential for traditional institutions to innovate further, leveraging the increasing demand for seamless blockchain access to complement existing financial infrastructure. Future Development Roadmap and Strategic Vision As Ondo Finance looks forward, the trajectory of $SHOPON rests on ambitious goals aimed at broadening the spectrum of available tokenized assets significantly. Over the next few years, plans are in place to expand to more than 1,000 tokenized securities, further enhancing market participation and investment options for individuals worldwide. Continued integration with traditional financial actors, development of specialized institutional products, and enhancements in automated trading capabilities will ensure that $SHOPON maintains its position at the forefront of financial innovation. Regulatory collaboration will also remain a focal point, establishing a framework that not only supports the compliance requirements but also promotes a healthy environment for tokenized asset proliferation. Conclusion and Market Significance In summary, Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), represented by the ticker $SHOPON, is more than merely a tokenized equity offering; it embodies the innovation possible when traditional finance collides with modern blockchain applications. With a robust technical architecture, a commitment to compliance, and a clear strategic vision, $SHOPON exemplifies the potential for tokenized assets to enhance liquidity, accessibility, and functionality in capital markets. As the global investment landscape evolves, the transformative implications of $SHOPON extend beyond individual investors to revolutionize how financial instruments are perceived, traded, and utilized within both traditional and decentralized frameworks.

4.4k Total ViewsPublished 2025.12.05Updated 2025.12.05

What is SHOPON

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