Vitalik 新文:到底什么是“制度”?

VitalikPublished on 2023-01-04Last updated on 2023-01-04

Abstract

以太坊创始人V深关于制度的思考。

Dennis Pourteaux 最近提出的另一种政治指南针提出,我们当今时代最重要的政治分歧不是自由与威权主义或左派与右派,而是我们如何看待“制度”。当今社会赖以运行的制度是好是坏?解决方案是逐步改进它们,用完全不同的制度取代它们,还是完全废除制度?

然而,这提出了一个非常重要的问题:到底什么是“制度”?

政治话语中的“institution”一词让人联想到国家政府、纽约时报、大学,也许还有当地的公共图书馆。但这个词也被用来描述其他种类的事物。“the institution of marriage”一词在英语中很常见,在谷歌上获得了超过两百万的搜索结果。如果你直截了当地问谷歌,“家庭是一种制度”,它的回答是肯定的。

ChatGPT 观点:

如果我们认真对待 ChatGPT 的定义,即“社会制度是一种存在于社会中并被认为对其运作至关重要的行为和规范模式”,那么纽约时报就不是一种制度——没有人会争辩说它实际上是必不可少,许多人认为它是有害的!另一方面,我们可以举出一些例子,这些例子可能是Pourteaux 的“反制度主义者”会赞同的制度!

•推特

•比特币或以太坊区块链

•英语语言

•子栈

•市场

•处理国际航运的标准组织

这就引出了两个相关但又有些独立的问题:

1. 一些事物在人们眼中成为“制度”,而另一些则不是,这个分界线是什么?

2. 那些认为自己是反制度主义者的人实际上想要看到什么样的世界?反制度主义者在当今世界应该做些什么?

调查实验

在过去的一周里,我对Mastodon进行了一系列的调查,我提供了许多不同对象、实践和社会结构的例子,并提出了一个问题:这到底是不是一个制度?在某些情况下,我在同一个概念上做了不同的调整,以观察改变某些特定变量的效果。有一些有趣的结果。

下面是一些例子:

和:

和:

还有:

还有更多有趣的:《纽约时报》vs《今日俄罗斯》vs《比特币杂志》,太阳系vs如果我们开始重新设计它会怎样,预测市场,各种社会习俗,等等。

在这里,我们已经开始看到一些共同因素。与浪漫关系相比,婚姻更像是一种制度,这可能是因为它有官方认可的印记,而更主流的关系风格比不太主流的风格具有制度性(在比较《纽约时报》、《今日俄罗斯》和《比特币杂志》时,这种模式会重复出现)。由清晰可见的人类做出决策的系统更像是一种制度,而非非个人的算法结构,即使它们的输出最终完全是人类提供的输入的函数。

为了进一步阐明,我决定做一个更系统的分析。

有哪些共同因素?

Robin Hanson最近发表了一篇文章,他在文章中指出:

至少在知名话题上,大多数人希望相关机构采取以下理想形式:

大众认可精英,他们监督专家,挑选细节。

在我看来,这似乎是一个重要且有价值的见解,尽管方向有所不同:是的,这就是人们熟悉的制度风格,而且不会感到奇怪(当他们看到Hanson喜欢提出的许多“替代制度”时,他们可能会感到奇怪),但这也正是反制度主义者最强烈反对的制度风格!马克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)的制度化监督委员会当然很好地遵循了“大众认可监督专家的精英”模板,但它并没有真正让很多人开心。

我决定对这个制度理论,以及其他一些理论,进行一次测试。我确定了七个在我看来可能是制度重要特征的属性,目的是确定哪些属性与人们认为某物是制度的想法最密切相关:

•它是否具有“大众认可精英”的模式?

•它是否存在“精英监督专家”的模式?

•它是主流吗?

•逻辑上是中心化的吗?

•它涉及人与人之间的互动吗?(如。间歇性禁食不会,因为每个人都可以选择是否单独进行,但政府可以)

•它是否有一个特定的结构,背后有很多有意的设计?(如,公司有,友谊没有)

•它是否有独立于个体的角色?(如,民主选举产生的政府会这样做,毕竟他们甚至称领导人为“总统先生”,但以其唯一主持人命名的播客则根本不会这样做)。

我浏览了这份名单,并根据我对这些类别的民意调查,对 35 家可能的机构进行了评分。例如,特斯拉得到:

•25%是“大众认可精英”(因为它是由埃隆·马斯克运营的,作为名人,他在实践中确实得到了很多认可和支持,但这并不是特斯拉的内在特征,如果埃隆失去合法性,他不会被赶出特斯拉,等等)

•100%认同“精英监督专家”(所有大公司都遵循这种模式)

•75%的人认为“是主流”(几乎每个人都知道,很多人都有,但还算不上纽约时报级别的家喻户晓)

• 100%的“逻辑中心化”(大多数事情在这方面都是100%;作为一个反例,“约会网站”得到50%,因为有很多约会网站,“间歇性禁食”得到0%)

•100%的“涉及人与人之间的互动”(特斯拉生产的产品卖给人们,它雇佣员工,有投资者,等等)

•75%的“有意结构”(特斯拉确实与股东、董事、管理层等有很深的结构,但这种结构并不是其身份的一部分,比如,股权证明共识适用于以太坊,投票和国会适用于政府)

•50%的人选择“独立于个人的角色”(虽然公司中的角色通常是可以互换的,但特斯拉确实因为成为Elon宇宙的一部分而获得了很大的收益)

完整的数据在这里。我知道很多人会对我所做的各种个人排名有很多不同意见,读者可能会说服我,我的一些分数是错误的。我主要希望我已经在列表中包含了足够多的不同的制度,个人的分歧或错误可以大致被平均掉。

以下是相关表:

但事实证明,这种相关性具有误导性。“人与人之间的互动”几乎毫无疑问地成为一种制度的必要属性。0.57的相关性某种程度上表明了这一点,但它低估了关系的强度:

从字面上看,每一件我标记为明显涉及互动的事情比我标记为不涉及互动的事情有更多人认为它是一种制度。中间的一个点是我假设的一个岛屿的例子,在这个岛屿上,生日是奇数的人不允许在12:00之前吃肉。我不想给它100%,因为不吃肉是一种私人活动,但这个问题仍然强烈暗示了一些社会或其他压力来遵循这一规则,所以它也不是真正的0%。这是一个Spearman系数优于Pearson系数的地方,但我宁愿只展示图表,而不是喷出奇异的数字。以下是其他六个:

最令我惊讶的发现是,“独立于个体的角色”是迄今为止最弱的相关性。由民主国家运营的 Twitter 是最具制度性的,但通过付费治理计划运营的 Twitter 与由 Elon 直接运营的 Twitter一样是制度性的。独立于个人的角色增加了稳定性的保证,但以错误的方式独立于个人的角色让人感觉太陌生、随意,或者不像制度。约会网站比专业的婚介机构更独立于个人,但人们认为婚介机构更像机构。尝试高度角色驱动和机械可信中立的媒体,(例如这个精巧的设计,我实际上认为这真的很酷)只是感到陌生-也许是坏的,但也可能是好的,如果你发现今天的制度令人沮丧,你对可能的替代方案持开放态度。

“大众认可精英”和“精英监督专家”相关性高。第二个比第一个高,尽管Hanson和我可能对“recognize”有不同的理解。“意向结构”图表的右下角是空的,但左上角是完整的,这表明意向结构是必要的,但不足以使某物成为制度。

也就是说,我的主要结论可能是“institution”一词一团糟。与“institution”一词所指的是一系列概念(如“高度现代主义”)不同,该词似乎有许多不同的定义:

1. 这种结构符合我们熟悉的“大众认可精英,监督专家”的模式

2. 任何有意设计的用于调节人际互动的大型结构(包括金融市场、社交媒体平台和约会网站等)

3. 广泛流传和普遍规范的社会习俗

我怀疑反制度主义者将他们的怀疑集中在 (1) 上,特别是(1)的例子被错误的部落抓住了。对于反制度主义者来说,结构是个人主义的还是角色驱动的似乎并不重要:个性(“克劳斯·施瓦布”)和官僚机构(“觉醒的学者”)同样可能来自错误的部落。反制度主义者一般不反对(3),实际上在许多情况下希望(3)尽可能地取代(1)。

对 (2) 的支持可能与 Pourteaux 的“技术乐观主义者”与“技术极简主义者”的区别密切相关。技术极简主义者不认为 Twitter、Substack、比特币、以太坊等是解决方案的一部分,尽管有些“比特币极简主义者”将比特币区块链视为一个狭隘的例外,否则他们希望看到一个由家庭等因素决定更多结果的世界。“技术乐观主义反制度主义者”专门参与了一项政治计划,要么试图用正确的 (2) 取代 (1),要么试图通过引入更多正确的 (2) 元素来改革 (1) 。

反制度主义者或制度改革者的前进方向是什么?

将过多的故意策略归因于反制度主义者是错误的:反制度主义是一种运动,它更加团结地反对而不是支持任何特定的替代方案。但有可能的是认识到这种模式,并提出这样一个问题,即,哪些前进道路对反制度主义者来说是有意义的。

从语言的角度来看,在这一点上,即使使用“institution”一词似乎也更容易造成混淆而不是启发。(i) 希望用不含精英角色的结构取代包含精英角色的结构,(ii) 偏好小规模和非正式结构,而不是大规模和正式的结构,(iii) 一个希望简单地将当前的精英换成新的精英,以及 (iv) 一种社会自由主义立场,即个人应该被自己的想法所驱动,而不是被其他人创造的激励所驱动。“institution”这个词掩盖了这种分歧,并且可能过于关注正在拆除的东西而不是要在其上建立的东西。

不同的反制度主义者有不同的目标。当然,在 Twitter 上对《纽约时报》进行强有力的尖锐批评的人同意你关于社会不应该如何运作的观点,但你确定在决定社会应该如何运作时他们会成为你的盟友吗?

完全避免结构的挑战是显而易见的:存在囚徒困境,我们需要激励措施。小规模和非正式结构的挑战通常很明显:规模经济和标准化带来的收益——尽管有时非正式方法带来的其他好处值得失去这些好处。简单地交换精英的挑战是显而易见的:它无法在社会上扩大到跨部落的共识。如果目标不是永远崇拜一群新的精英,而是让精英永远保持高流动率(参见 Balaji 的创始人与继承人的二分法),这是更可信的中立,但随后它开始接近于避免普遍崇拜精英的领域。

在没有精英的情况下创造正式的结构是很有趣的,尤其是因为它还没有被充分探索:有一个强有力的例子表明,,在交流更加受限的时代,拥有精英角色的机构可能是一种不幸的历史必然,但现代信息技术(包括互联网,以及零知识密码学、区块链和 DAO 等更新的更可怕的东西)可以迅速扩大我们的可用选项。尽管如此,正如Hanson指出的那样,这条道路也有其自身的挑战。

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