Bitcoin price history hints at incoming ‘bullish turn’ in H1 2023

FinboldPublished on 2022-12-27Last updated on 2022-12-27

Abstract

Indicators suggest there is hope for a bullish move in the first half of 2023.

Although the chaos in the cryptocurrency market has died down, the consequences of the FTX implosion are still felt across the landscape, including Bitcoin (BTC). However, BTC is nearing the $17,000 mark, and indicators suggest there is hope for a bullish move in the first half of 2023.

Indeed, the money flow index (MFI) for Bitcoin is demonstrating a similar chart pattern compared to the asset’s previous two bottoms, with an expected ‘bullish turn’ in the period between one to five months, pseudonymous crypto and stock market analyst Trend Rider noted on December 27.

Bitcoin price action and money flow index analysis. Source: Trend Rider

Is the bottom finally in?

Meanwhile, CryptoNoob has observed that the maiden decentralized finance (DeFi) asset was “trading in the oversold zone, which is historically where the bottom forms,” and which indicates an upward movement is likely in the future. At the same time, Trader Tardigrade stated that Bitcoin was in an ascending triangle trading pattern and that it was going to make a choice to either break out or break down from it.

That said, the renowned crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital predicted on December 26 that the flagship digital asset could close the month below $17,150 and even drop lower as it failed to move past its immediate resistance at this level.

It is also worth noting that the machine learning algorithms are bearish, with PricePredictions’ forecast standing at $16,614.67 for January 27, 2023, and CoinPriceForecast indicating $16,919 for the end of December and $17,292 for the middle of 2023.

Bitcoin 30-day price forecast. Source: PricePredictions

Bitcoin price still undecided

As things stand, Bitcoin is currently changing hands at the price of $16,832.87, demonstrating a decline of 0.2% on the day, as opposed to a 0.02% gain across the week and an increase of 1.55% over the previous 30 days, as charts indicate.

Bitcoin 7-day price chart. Source: Finbold

Considering Bitcoin’s sideways trading pattern and a lack of any significant triggers for a move in either direction, the digital asset could indeed require patience from investors waiting for a rally, which might not be in the cards for the near future.

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Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

Analysis of Bitcoin Trading Strategies: Why Celebrity Forecasts and Classic Models Fail, Leaving Only These Four Reliable Indicators This analysis examines the failure of common Bitcoin prediction methods and identifies four reliable indicators for constructing a trading strategy. The author reviewed all major BTC prediction approaches from 2017-2025, categorizing them into three groups: celebrity price targets (consistently over-optimistic), analytical models like Stock-to-Flow (broken post-2022), and on-chain signals. The key finding is that more data often creates confusion, not clarity. The strategy discards unreliable elements: celebrity predictions (incentivized to be extreme), pure models (invalidated by post-ETF market changes), and the Fear & Greed Index used alone (too many false signals). Four reliable indicators were selected: 1. **MVRV Z-Score:** Accurately identifies cycle bottoms when entering its green zone (e.g., 2018, 2020, 2022). Note: Its ability to call tops is now ineffective post-2024. 2. **SOPR (28-day MA):** Consistently signals bottoms when below 1.0, indicating holders are selling at a loss. 3. **ETF Net Flow:** A crucial post-2024 metric showing institutional momentum (e.g., sustained inflows = buying). 4. **Macro Liquidity (Fed policy & M2):** Sets the overall directional bias (e.g., bullish during easing cycles). The core strategy involves waiting for a multi-signal共振 (resonance). For example, a bottom signal requires MVRV in the green zone + SOPR < 1.0. A top signal requires overheated on-chain data + sustained ETF outflows. Macro policy sets the overall direction. The Fear & Greed Index is only used as a weighted confirmatory signal, never alone. Action is only taken when three or more indicators align. The author automated this into a monitoring system that sends Telegram alerts only when signals trigger. As of the article's date (April 15, 2026), the system showed a strong bottom signal: extreme fear (F&G=12), MVRV in the buy zone, and SOPR < 1.0. The only contrary signal was weak ETF flows. Historically, such triple on-chain共振 has preceded 100%+ returns. The conclusion emphasizes building a personal framework over relying on external predictions, allowing for iterative improvement and customization based on individual risk tolerance.

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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