Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: On-Chain Data Indicates Whales Still Selling

CoingapePublished on 2022-12-09Last updated on 2022-12-09

Abstract

Bitcoin price soared over 2% in the last 24 hours, with the 1.67% rise coming in just an hour near 6 PM UTC on December 8.

Bitcoin price soared over 2% in the last 24 hours, with the 1.67% rise coming in just an hour near 6 PM UTC on December 8. Since then, the BTC price tries to hold over $17k for an upside move. However, on-chain data indicates whales are still selling.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Still Under Pressure
Whale holding and spending behaviors can help to easily identify a Bitcoin market cycle. The UTXO Value Bands Metric indicates that an increasing trend in BTC prices is often associated with Bitcoin accumulation by large holders.
However, the on-chain data shows that whales continued to reduce their Bitcoin holdings since June 2022. After the Terra-LUNA crisis, Bitcoin whales have sold nearly 367k BTC. Also, the BTC price has declined continuously since June. Therefore, Bitcoin whales are still selling their BTC holdings, and Bitcoin price is under pressure.
Traders must observe whales increasing their BTC holdings to confirm a Bitcoin rally.

Bitcoin Spent Output Value Bands
Bitcoin Spent Output Value Bands

Bitcoin Spent Output Value Bands. Source: CryptoQuant Meanwhile, the on-chain data indicates that whales with 1k-10k BTC continued to liquidate their BTC holdings during the miner capitulation phase until November. In fact, whales started accumulating Bitcoin but sold their BTC longs due to the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.
An upward sustained price trend is typically accompanied by whales holding their bitcoins. However, almost 80% Bitcoin selloff since June came from whales. Thus, the market cycle shift may come with much lower whale spending.
BTC Price Fall Due to Miner Capitulation
While the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin bottom is still there, on-chain predicts BTC price can bottom at $12.8k. Analysts such as Michael van de Poppe and “Wolf of the Wall Street” Jordan Belfort believe Bitcoin can rally if it crosses $18k, suggesting $16.5k as a critical support level.

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