稳定币和其他衍生品的现状分析

FPublished on 2022-12-02Last updated on 2022-12-02

Abstract

在 FTX 的困境所带来的突然冲击之后,加密货币市场参与者继续进行重新调整。

在 FTX 的困境所带来的突然冲击之后,加密货币市场参与者继续进行重新调整。

对稳定币和其他链上衍生品的看法

在 FTX 的困境所带来的突然冲击之后,加密货币市场参与者继续进行重新调整。正如我们在最近的版本的《State of the Network》中所述,Alameda 的钱包的链上足迹在许多加密货币资产和区块链中延伸得很长很远。因此,影响是巨大的和不断发展的。我们认为,一个特别值得关注的领域是稳定币。

稳定币是在公共区块链上发行的数字代币,追踪基础资产,今天绝大部分是美元。在最流行的法币支持模式中,像 USD Coin's Circle 这样的发行商持有支持代币的储备金,可以赎回基础美元。

今年,在「算法」稳定币 Terra USD 的恶性螺旋上升之后,稳定币受到了严厉的审查,但仍然是数字资产行业的一个重要发展领域。在 FTX 崩溃之后,稳定币的生态系统是如何维持的?

采用

衡量采用情况的一个简单标准是链上转移的价值。使用相对较长的 90 天移动平均值窗口,每天在区块链上与稳定币交换的价值接近历史高点,每天 250 亿美元。其中约 200 亿美元来自 USDC(以太坊上)和 Tether(以太坊和 Tron)的转移。

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data

同样值得考虑的是,稳定币在允许用户从交易所提取资金以减少他们的对手方风险方面所发挥的作用。我们可以注意到,在过去的几个月里,持有超过 1 万美元的各种稳定币计价的地址已经增加;特别是 USDC,自 11 月初以来出现了大幅增长,从 7 万 6 千个到 8 万 6 千个地址。

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data

自由浮动量供应和赎回

Coin Metrics 计算了一个自由浮动供应量指标,更好地捕捉了流通中不由国库或赎回账户持有的液体供应。

这对 Tether 来说尤其重要,其赎回模式包括一个存放赎回的 USDT 的金库地址。这种 USDT 不应该被认为是流通供应的一部分,因此,为了准确评估供应趋势,查看自由浮动供应是很重要的。自 11 月 8 日以来,USDT 供应(以太坊、Tron、Omni)已经减少了约 40 亿美元,从 670 亿美元到 630 亿美元。

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data

赎回是在 Tether 的价格略微低于其 1 美元挂钩的情况下进行的。这为某些较大的市场参与者创造了一个套利机会:他们可以在低于 1 美元的价格购买 USDT,并按面值赎回。不过,赎回的速度没有今年春天那么激烈,反映出对 1 美元挂钩的折扣没有那么严重。

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data

同时,另一个由法币支持的稳定币中坚力量 USDC,自 11 月 8 日以来经历了自由浮动供应的轻微上升,从 370 亿美元上升到 400 亿美元。

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data

展望 wBTC

虽然到目前为止,稳定币是采用最多的链上衍生品,但也有“包装”资产,即用于与智能合约内无法寻址的基础资产互动的代币。包裹的比特币(wBTC)是以太坊中使用的一种比特币衍生品,通过将 BTC 存入一个发行 wBTC 代币的托管人来管理,确保两者之间保持 1:1 的对应关系。最近,用于管理大部分 wBTC 资金的多签名地址被调整为删除不活跃的签名者(包括 FTX 的 Blockfolio),从 18 个地址变成只有 11 个,需要 8 个签名来批准交易。

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data

在 FTX 惨败后不久,支持 wBTC 的 BTC 的主要托管人之一,一家名为 BitGo 的公司,暂时停止了提款,促使 wBTC 的价格偏离基础 BTC 的价格。 此后,wBTC 的价格开始回升,但仍然低于 BTC 的参考汇率。wBTC 的供应量已经下降,赎回速度加快。

结论

由于市场和参与者都希望从最近的事件中学习和恢复,我们必须密切关注支撑许多加密货币最流行用途的金融基础设施。此外,我们可以通过关注稳定币来收集大量的信息,因为市场参与者努力减少他们的风险敞口并保护他们的资产。

网络数据洞察力

汇总指标

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro

随着 FTX 内爆后的尘埃落定,链上活动有所放缓。大多数硬币的所有者数量仍在上升,这可能是用户继续从交易所提取代币到自我保管钱包的结果。

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