如何识别NFT“庄家行为”？

Odaily星球日报Published on 2022-10-20Last updated on 2022-10-20

Abstract

对金融人士来说，“洗盘交易”（wash trading）并不是一个新词。

对金融人士来说，“洗盘交易”（wash trading）并不是一个新词。加密货币也以相同的买入和卖出手法来回进行“洗盘”， NFT 市场亦是如此。“洗盘交易”使得 NFT 爱好者很难衡量市场对某一系列的真正兴趣，还夸大和扭曲了交易量，对交易平台的分析也造成误导。

那如何用链上数据来识别“洗盘交易”，检测可疑活动呢？

什么是“洗盘交易”？

洗盘交易是一种市场操纵形式，投资者同时买卖同一种金融产品，在市场中制造误导。

在 NFT 交易中，当同一用户作为 NFT 交易的买卖双方时，就会发生“洗盘交易”。与传统证券不同，NFT 市场不受政府监管，地址背后的真实身份难判别。因此，洗盘交易在 NFT 市场非常普遍。

为什么有人洗 NFT？

NFT 领域“洗盘”的背后有两个主要动机。

1. 获取平台奖励

一些 NFT 市场，如 X2Y2，根据活跃用户的交易量给予他们回报（以协议代币的形式），以此来奖励他们。洗盘交易者利用这一点，通过产生大量虚假交易量来最大化他们的回报。反过来，这很容易欺骗想要根据流动性定量分析 NFT 藏品或市场的用户。

2. 创造价值或流动性的假象

为了制造一种流动性的假象和特定 NFT 藏品的虚高价值，一些无良创造者转向洗盘交易来欺骗买家。当真正的买家被骗以抬高的价格从他们那里购买 NFT 时，他们就会从中获利。这种类型的洗盘交易者用新的钱包地址隐藏他们的活动，这些地址由中心化交易所钱包自筹资金。这种类型的洗盘交易产生的交易量相对较小，对市场的破坏性不如第 1 类洗盘交易。

“洗盘交易”是怎样进行的？

由于第一种“洗盘交易”对 NFT 交易数据的干扰性，我们用从链上数据来识别。要理解这种类型的洗盘交易，我们必须先理解 X2Y2 和 LooksRare 的代币奖励系统。X2Y2 和 LooksRare 每天根据地址的交易量（作为市场平台每日总交易量的一部分）向卖方和买方分发代币。代币奖励每天都是固定的，所以洗盘交易者可以进行洗盘交易，并在每日分配重置时重复获得奖励代币。

图 1 显示了 X2Y2 市场上的一个洗盘交易活动示例。

图1——NFT 系列Dreadfulz的洗盘交易例子（来源：Footprint Analytics）

从上图中我们可以看到，同一个 NFT（ID 164）相同的两个钱包之间在一天内多次来回购买，每笔交易的销售价格超过 300 ETH 。2022 年 9 月 1 日，这两个地址交易了 19 次，产生了 7228 ETH 的交易量，支付了 36.14 ETH 的 X2Y2 平台费用。而 Dreadfulz 的版税费率并不是在 X2Y2 上设定的。因此，没有支付创作者费用。洗盘交易者将选择零版税费的系列，以最小化他们的交易成本。

如何识别“洗盘交易”？

我研究了一些分析平台的检测方式。根据我自己的了解和分析，以下是一份可疑数据和活动的清单：

某一特定的 NFT 在同一地址每天交易超过 X 次，而其他收藏品则保持不变；

同一地址正在以高频方式进行同一 NFT 交易；

在没有营销或促销支持的情况下，NFT 系列以高频的方式进行自销；

A 市场的平均历史交易价格是 B 市场的 X 倍；

NFT 的销售价格比可供销售的最低价格 NFT 高 X 倍；

同一个钱包为买卖 NFT 的所有可疑钱包提供资金；

持续异常高的交易量。

上述假设并不完善，我希望与研究人员合作开发一种更全面的“记分卡”，可以更有效地确定 NFT 趋势和行为。随着时间的推移，追踪多个钱包以识别不同层次的关系的能力也至关重要。

顶级NFT收藏品是如何进行“洗盘交易”的？

在图 2 中，Footprint Analytics 将他们的识别规则应用到 X2Y2 和 LooksRare 上交易量最大的 NFT 系列。

图2——选定NFT 系列的洗盘交易统计（来源：Footprint Analytics）

根据他们的规则，他们已经检测到这些系列的 95% 或更多的交易量是洗盘交易。洗盘交易在这些收藏品的交易量中占了极高的比例，这对收藏品的历史交易量和销售活动造成了误导。

图3——蓝筹NFT 系列的洗盘交易统计（来源：Footprint Analytics）

图 4——LooksRare 和 X2Y2 的洗盘交易数据（来源：Footprint Analytics）

图 5——Opensea、LooksRare 和 X2Y2 未经过滤的交易数据（来源：Footprint Analytics）

图 4 显示，LooksRare 和 X2Y2 上 94.71% 和 81.04% 的交易量是洗盘交易，这似乎与市场统计数据一致，如图 5 所示。我们可以从未经过滤的数据中看到，Looksrare 的每笔交易平均价格几乎达到 8.5 万美元，这是 OpenSea 均价的 90 倍左右，贵得离谱。

总结

图 6——OpenSea、LooksRare 和 X2Y2 的月度NFT销量数据（来源：Footprint Analytics）

从图 6 中可以看出，自 2022 年 1 月以来，几乎每个月 NFT 市场的月度交易统计数据的洗盘交易量占总交易量的比例都在 50% 以上。尽管总交易量较1月份的高点大幅下降，但 NFT 市场的洗盘交易量百分比每月保持相似。这强调了洗盘交易对准确的 NFT 交易数据的破坏性，以及“过滤”洗盘交易对的 NFT 数据分析的重要性。

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Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of NFT (NFT) are presented below.