Although Bitcoin's recent recovery on the cryptocurrency market has once again fueled bullish expectations, Alphractal founder João Wedson stated that blockchain data paints a more cautious picture. According to Wedson, the final cycle price low for Bitcoin may not yet have been reached, and if certain historical metrics repeat, the price of BTC could fall to $53,000 or even lower.
In his analysis, Wedson particularly highlighted the MVRV Z-Score indicator, used to measure investor behavior and the market's realized value. The analyst stated that on-chain metrics reflect investor behavior, arguing that this behavior is directly linked to periods of euphoria and fear in market cycles.
Wedson Draws Attention to Bitcoin's 2018 Crash.
Wedson compared the current market structure to the 2017-2018 cycle. According to the analyst, the MVRV Z-Score formed three significant peaks before Bitcoin reached its all-time high during the 2017 bull market.
Wedson noted that after Bitcoin peaked and then declined, the indicator formed a base roughly between 0.25 and 1.16, recalling that at that time, most of the market did not expect another sharp drop. However, in November 2018, Bitcoin experienced another steep decline, falling to approximately $3,180.
According to Wedson's data, in the 2024-2025 period, the MVRV Z-Score has reached three separate peaks. However, the analyst noted that the enthusiasm at these peaks has been more limited compared to 2017, as the market has become more complex than in previous cycles.
Wedson pointed out that after Bitcoin's recent drop from its peak, the MVRV Z-Score formed a base in an area similar to that observed in 2018, but recently this indicator has risen again, and Bitcoin's price has followed it.
"The MVRV Z-Score Has Not Yet Fallen into Negative Territory".
The key risk highlighted by the analyst is that the indicator has not yet reached negative territory, which in the past has been associated with major cyclical lows for Bitcoin.
Wedson stated that, based on the available data, he consistently asks himself the same question: if the MVRV Z-Score is meant to decline, will Bitcoin's price follow this indicator?
According to the Alphractal founder, when looking only at blockchain data, there are not enough signals to confidently assert that the current decline is Bitcoin's final low.
Wedson stated that to meet the conditions he is tracking, Bitcoin may need to fall to at least $53,000 or even lower.
The analyst specifically emphasized that this assessment is not financial advice, stating that it directly questions the data, not the current bullish market sentiment.
Wedson, recalling that in 2018 most market participants also did not expect another sharp downturn, stated that the key question is whether the current cycle will conclude similarly to previous ones.
In the analyst's view, at this stage, on-chain indicators suggest that the downside risks have not yet fully dissipated, rather than clearly indicating that the "bottom is in" for Bitcoin.
*This is not investment advice.
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