曾预测比特币在10月大跌的分析师,现在预测接下来可能发生什么

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2026-08-17Last updated on 2026-08-17

Abstract

加密货币市场近期的横盘震荡走势令投资者感到迷茫。Fundstrat公司数字资产策略主管肖恩·法雷尔对此进行了分析。他指出,尽管传统科技股屡创新高,加密资产的滞后表现令市场情绪冷淡,但这可能是市场触底的首个迹象。 法雷尔的基本情景预测是,比特币乃至整个加密市场在开启可持续上涨趋势前,可能还会经历最后一轮急跌。不确定这次下跌会形成新的深底还是测试近期低点。分析师同时指出,全球流动性状况以及美国10年期国债收益率上升,短期内仍对加密货币等流动性敏感资产构成压力。 从宏观经济角度看,法雷尔认为科技股上涨源于企业盈利大幅增长,而加密市场尚未获得必要的货币和财政流动性支持。尽管美国国债高发行量和长期债券收益率上升带来压力,但预计未来3-6个月情况可能改变。在高利率抑制风险偏好之后,监管机构或央行的流动性注入措施可能引发新一轮牛市。 此外,法雷尔提到,如果旨在降低Solana网络通胀率的新的治理提案获得通过,将减轻市场供应压力,并可能成为SOL代币价格的重要催化剂。

近期加密货币市场的横盘震荡趋势在投资者中造成了不确定性,促使 Fundstrat 数字资产策略主管肖恩·法雷尔做出了一项重要分析。

评估当前市场状况时,法雷尔指出,虽然传统科技公司的股价屡创新高,但加密资产的滞后表现造成了一种市场冷淡感,不过这可能是触底的第一个迹象。

根据法雷尔的基本情景,比特币乃至整个加密货币市场,可能会在开始可持续的上升趋势之前,经历最后一次急剧下跌。尚不清楚这次下跌是会形成新的深度低点,还是测试近期低点;然而,分析师补充道,全球流动性状况以及美国10年期国债收益率的上升,短期内继续对加密货币等对流动性敏感的资产构成压力。

法雷尔在评估宏观经济动态时表示,科技行业的增长是基于企业利润的大幅增长,而加密货币市场尚未获得必要的货币和财政流动性。尽管美国国债的大量发行和长期债券收益率的上升给市场带来了压力,但预计情况可能在未来的3-6个月内发生变化。在高利率导致风险偏好下降之后,监管机构或中央银行采取的流动性提升措施可能引发新一轮牛市。

此外,该分析师认为,如果一项旨在降低 Solana 网络通胀水平的新治理提案获得通过,将减轻市场的抛售压力,并可能成为该代币价格的重要催化剂。

*本文不构成投资建议。

end-content

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Related Questions

Q文章中提到,哪位分析师对比特币和加密货币市场未来走势做出了预测?

A文章中的预测来自肖恩·法雷尔(Sean Farrell),他是Fundstrat公司数字资产策略部门的负责人。

Q根据肖恩·法雷尔的观点,当前加密货币市场在什么方面落后于传统科技股?

A法雷尔指出,尽管传统科技公司的股票在创下新高,但加密货币资产的滞后在市场上造成了一种冷漠感。

Q法雷尔对短期内的比特币和加密货币市场提出了怎样的基本情景假设?

A在他的基本情景中,比特币和整个加密货币市场可能在进入持续上升趋势之前,经历最后一次急剧下跌。

Q文章中提到了哪两个宏观经济因素持续对加密货币等资产施加短期压力?

A文章提到,全球流动性条件和不断上升的美国10年期国债收益率,正在对加密货币等流动性敏感资产施加短期压力。

Q法雷尔认为,在Solana网络上采纳什么新提案可能成为其代币价格的重要催化剂?

A法雷尔认为,如果Solana网络采纳一项旨在降低网络通胀率的新治理提案,这将减少市场的供应压力,并可能成为其代币价格的重要催化剂。

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