比特币新型彩虹指标模式可能预示价格走势！

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2026-08-15Last updated on 2026-08-15

Abstract

比特币价格已跌至彩虹图表模型的历史最低估值区间，该模型基于长期价格趋势分析。其经波动率调整的Z分数也降至十年来的最低水平。分析师指出，比特币目前交易于彩虹图上的"恐慌性抛售"价格区间，相对于该模型的长期价格轨迹显示出极大折价。彩虹图表不仅衡量价格跌幅，还通过对比当前价格与长期历史趋势，显示市场偏离程度。数据显示，调整后的Z分数已降至-2.293，为2016年以来最低水平（2022年市场低迷时期为-1.979）。分析师认为，该指标考虑了不同市场周期的波动性变化，表明当前比特币的下行偏离已超过上一轮熊市底部水平。但极低估值并不直接意味着最终底部已经形成。虽然当前价格在模型框架内显示出潜在吸引力，但市场趋势的真正反转仍需其他指标数据的确认。

根据基于长期价格趋势的彩虹图模型，比特币已跌至其最低估值水平。其经波动率调整的Z分数也降至10年来的最低点。

CryptoQuant分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒二世表示，比特币目前正交易在彩虹图上可被描述为‘恐慌性抛售价格’的区间。该分析师称，在当前价格模式下，现价相对于长期价格轨迹呈现出极低的折价水平。

彩虹图不仅衡量比特币价格的下跌。该模型将当前价格与长期历史趋势进行比较，显示市场偏离该趋势的程度。

数据显示，经波动率调整的Z分数已降至-2.293。这是该指标自2016年以来的最低记录水平。在2022年市场低迷时期，该指标为-1.979。

分析师认为，这个考虑了不同市场周期波动率变化的指标表明，比特币当前的下跌背离已经超过了上一个熊市底部时的水平。

然而，极低的估值本身并不能明确证实最终底部已经形成。虽然当前前景表明，在模型框架内可能是一个有吸引力的价格区间，但要确认市场已经转向，还需要其他指标数据的验证。

*本文不构成投资建议。

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