华尔街抢滩以太坊，却成了投资者的弃子？

marsbitPublished on 2026-07-31Last updated on 2026-07-31

Abstract

以太坊网络正获得华尔街越来越多机构的认可，摩根大通、Robinhood、摩根士丹利等近期纷纷推出相关产品或服务。同时，Vitalik Buterin公布了旨在提升隐私和抗量子攻击能力的“精简以太坊”重大升级路线图。然而，ETH价格表现疲软，较历史高点下跌超60%，花旗等机构也下调了其价格预期。分析认为，市场冷淡的核心矛盾在于以太坊依赖二层网络扩容，虽然提升了可扩展性并降低了用户成本，但导致主网手续费收入减少，削弱了ETH的价值捕获能力。尽管业界对其长期成为金融基础设施持乐观态度，但ETH持有者能否从中充分获益，目前仍存在不确定性。

撰文:Alex O'Donnell,Coinmarketcap

编译:Saoirse,Foresight News

以太坊网络正收获华尔街认可,但投资者依旧没有对 ETH 全盘看好。

近数月,机构对以太坊的接纳速度显著提升。自 5 月以来,摩根大通、Robinhood、摩根士丹利等多家金融机构接连推出各类以太坊相关产品与服务。7 月,数名以太坊基金会前成员成立非营利独立机构 Ethereum Institutional,目的是加速各大机构落地使用以太坊。

与此同时,以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 发布名为「Lean Ethereum」(精简以太坊)的重磅网络升级路线图,本次升级旨在强化以太坊隐私能力与抗量子攻击能力。

然而市场并未给出积极反馈。本文撰稿时,ETH 交易价格略高于 1900 美元,相较 2025 年 8 月约 4950 美元的历史最高点,跌幅超过 60%。分析师普遍认为 ETH 短期内很难重回前期高点。7 月 1 日,花旗将以太坊 12 个月价格预期从 3175 美元下调至 2240 美元,下调理由为投资者需求走弱,以太坊 ETF 资金持续净流出。

Galaxy 机构的研究团队表示,行情与基本面脱节的原因十分明确:越来越多投资者搞不清 ETH 的价值增长逻辑。

华尔街布局版图持续扩张

如今,机构对区块链的应用不再局限于试点尝试,以太坊是这一趋势下最大受益方之一。

5 月,摩根大通资产管理公司在以太坊公链上线第二只代币化货币市场基金 JLTXX。 7 月,线上券商 Robinhood 推出 Robinhood Chain,这是一条专为金融服务、代币化资产打造的以太坊二层网络。

摩根士丹利也推动 ETH 进一步走进主流证券账户。符合资质的 E*TRADE 用户如今可以交易、持仓以太坊、比特币以及 SOL。

各大机构之所以不断加码以太坊,是因为以太坊拥有成熟的开发者生态,还有规模庞大、去中心化的验证节点网络,后续机构布局大概率还会提速。

ConsenSys 首席执行官 Joe Lubin 在 7 月 1 日的声明中提到:绝大多数稳定币发行、代币化资产、去中心化金融以及各类链上金融基建,都会优先选择以太坊。

规划宏大的升级计划

除此之外,以太坊即将迎来全方位技术革新,这次升级会进一步提升以太坊对各类机构的吸引力。

7 月,Buterin 公开「Lean Ethereum」发展规划,整个重构周期为三至四年。他表示,本次升级改造的体量,足以媲美以太坊 2022 年转为权益证明共识机制的全网升级。

该升级希望降低以太坊使用成本、提升网络安全性,同时优化用户隐私保护 —— 隐私保障是机构交易者十分看重的一点。如果升级顺利落地,以太坊有望成为首批具备可靠抗量子攻击能力的区块链。

以太坊基金会研究员 Justin Drake 在 7 月称,强大的安全属性会成为吸引全球机构迁移至以太坊的天然优势。

经济基本面充满不确定性

利好消息接连不断,ETH 的价格却始终低迷。

根源之一在于以太坊的扩容方案。以太坊高度依赖二层区块链实现更低成本、更高效率的交易处理。

理论上,链上活跃度越高,产生的手续费越多,市场对 ETH 的需求也会上涨。但 L2Beat 的数据显示,2024 年至今,以太坊生态绝大多数交易都由二层网络承接,二层网络仅定期在以太坊主网完成最终结算。

扩容方案大幅降低了交易成本,帮助以太坊承载更多流量,但也割裂了链上活跃度与 ETH 需求的关联:大量交易转移至主网之外,以太坊主网赚取的手续费随之变少。

21Shares 的研究人员在 1 月表示:这样的变化利好普通用户,但对 ETH 持有者利弊并存。除非整体链上交易量暴涨,足以弥补手续费下滑带来的缺口,否则手续费降低会减少 ETH 销毁数量。

市场预测观点两极分化

当下,以太坊大概率会成长为金融领域核心基础设施,但 ETH 持有者最终能收获多少红利,依旧没有定论。行业各方给出的价格预期差距悬殊。

花旗预测 12 个月后 ETH 价格大概在 2000 美元出头;渣打则乐观很多,其预期 ETH 在 2026 年底达到 4000 美元,2030 年涨到 40000 美元。

BitMine 董事长 Tom Lee 更为激进,他认为 ETH 长远价格最高可达 25 万美元,对应总市值约 30 万亿美元。

总结来看,以太坊成为主流核心金融基础设施的概率越来越高,但普通持币人能否充分分享行业发展红利,依旧充满不确定性。

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Related Questions

Q近期哪些主要金融机构推出了与以太坊相关的产品与服务？

A摩根大通资产管理公司、Robinhood和摩根士丹利等金融机构相继推出了以太坊相关产品与服务。摩根大通上线了代币化货币市场基金JLTXX，Robinhood推出了以太坊二层网络Robinhood Chain，摩根士丹利则通过E*TRADE平台为用户提供了ETH交易服务。

QVitalik Buterin提出的“Lean Ethereum”升级计划的主要目标是什么？

A“Lean Ethereum”升级计划的主要目标是：降低以太坊的使用成本、提升网络安全性、优化用户隐私保护能力，并旨在使以太坊成为首批具备可靠抗量子攻击能力的区块链网络。整个重构周期预计为三至四年。

Q为什么文章认为以太坊生态的扩容方案（二层网络）对ETH持有者“利弊并存”？

A因为以太坊高度依赖二层网络来处理交易以降低成本和提高效率。这虽然增加了链上整体活跃度并利好用户，但大部分交易手续费产生于二层网络，仅定期在主网结算，导致以太坊主网直接获得的手续费减少，进而可能减少ETH的销毁数量，削弱了链上活跃度与ETH需求之间的直接关联，对ETH持币者的潜在收益构成了不确定性。

Q根据文章，目前市场分析师对ETH未来价格的预期有何不同？

A市场分析师的预期呈现两极分化。花旗银行将ETH未来12个月的价格预期下调至2240美元左右；渣打银行则乐观预计ETH在2026年底可达4000美元，2030年涨至40000美元；而BitMine董事长Tom Lee的预测最为激进，他认为ETH的长期价格最高可能达到25万美元。

Q文章指出以太坊基本面（机构采用、技术升级）与市场行情（ETH价格）脱节的核心原因是什么？

A文章引用Galaxy机构研究团队的观点，认为脱节的核心原因是：越来越多的投资者搞不清楚ETH的价值增长逻辑。具体而言，虽然机构采用和技术升级在推进，但以太坊的扩容方案（二层网络）使得链上活动与ETH原生资产需求之间的直接联系被削弱，导致市场对ETH未来的价值捕获能力产生了困惑和不确定性。

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