以太坊 vs 比特币:ETH 第三季度 5% 的上涨是结构性轮动的开始吗?

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-07-12Last updated on 2026-07-12

Abstract

以太坊(ETH)相对于比特币(BTC)的表现近期引发关注。ETH/BTC汇率在第三季度迄今上涨约5%,但历史数据显示,以太坊的强势往往难以持续。例如,其在2025年第三季度曾大涨53%,随后涨幅回吐一半,表明资金可能再次流向比特币。目前比特币市值占比正再次逼近60%的关键阻力位。 然而,多个基本面因素可能支撑本轮以太坊走强。机构资金通过以太坊ETF持续净流入,本月已超1.28亿美元,表现优于比特币ETF。同时,Robinhood新推出的Layer 2链采用ETH作为原生Gas代币,并将交易结算至以太坊主网,过去一周桥接至该网络的ETH价值激增近10倍,超过1亿美元,提升了ETH的实用需求和生态价值。 尽管当前涨幅尚不足以确认资金从比特币向以太坊发生了结构性轮动,但改善的基本面——包括机构流入、Layer 2活动增长和链上需求上升——正在强化以太坊的长期投资逻辑。如果这一趋势持续,ETH/BTC汇率的突破可能预示着第三季度更广泛的资本向以太坊轮动的开始。

从历史上看,以太坊 [ETH] 相对于比特币的优异表现往往难以持续。

从技术面来看,ETH/BTC 上一次强劲的季度上涨是在 2025 年第三季度,飙升了 53%,创下自 2021 年第二季度以来的最大季度涨幅。然而,随着上涨势头减弱,卖家抹去了其中 50% 的涨幅。这表明当时的轮动是暂时的,因为资金继续流向比特币。

在此背景下,ETH/BTC 比率在第三季度迄今 5% 的上涨似乎还不足以确认从比特币到以太坊的持续轮动。与此同时,比特币的主导地位再次逼近关键的 60% 阻力位,7 月份上涨了 1.5%,表明资金可能已经开始回流比特币。

来源:TradingView (ETH/BTC)

话虽如此,埃里克·特朗普最近在 X 上的帖子却指向相反方向,支持以太坊的上涨。

与此同时,链上数据讲述着类似的故事。以太坊对比特币 [BTC] 的优异表现并非孤立事件。机构持仓持续为这一动向提供支撑,本月迄今以太坊 ETF 吸引了超过 1.28 亿美元的净流入,表现优于比特币。同时,以太坊的 DAT 正在复苏,这为以太坊近期的强势增添了进一步的支持。

尽管如此,现在就将当前 ETH/BTC 的上升趋势定性为又一次短期轮动可能还为时过早。更大的问题是,聪明的资金是否正在为一场更广泛的市场尚未定价的结构性转变进行布局。

以太坊的最新催化剂使 ETH/BTC 比率成为焦点

一个关键的催化剂可能正在强化机构向以太坊的轮动。

Tom Lee 指出 Robinhood 最近推出的 Layer 2 链是一个主要差异点,称其为一项突破性产品,其交易量已经超过了许多成熟的去中心化交易所。更重要的是,该网络使用 ETH 作为其原生 Gas 代币,并在以太坊 Layer 1 上进行结算。随着该链上活动的增长,每笔交易都会反馈到以太坊生态系统中,从而加强了市场对 ETH 的长期需求。

链上数据证实了这一点。如下图所示,过去一周内,从以太坊 Layer 1 桥接到 Robinhood 链的 ETH 数量激增了近 10 倍,超过 1 亿美元。这表明用户正积极将流动性转移到 Robinhood 的 Layer 2 生态系统中,而 ETH 正成为该网络用于 Gas、结算和链上活动的核心资产。

来源:Token Terminal

在此背景下,以太坊对比特币的优异表现可能不仅仅是一次轮动。

相反,这一动向看起来越来越受到基本面改善的推动,因为机构资金的流入、Layer 2 活动的增长以及链上需求的上升持续加强了以太坊的长期投资逻辑。如果这一趋势得以保持,ETH/BTC 的突破可能是第三季度更广泛的资金轮动进入以太坊的第一个信号。


最终总结

  • 以太坊相对于比特币的上涨得到了 ETF 资金流入、更强的链上活动以及 Robinhood 的 Layer 2 生态系统的支持。
  • 如果这些趋势持续下去,ETH/BTC 的突破可能预示着第三季度将有更广泛的资金转向以太坊。

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Related Questions

Q根据文章,ETH/BTC比率在第三季度的5%上涨,是否足以确认为从比特币到以太坊的结构性资金轮动开始?

A文章认为,目前ETH/BTC比率在第三季度的5%上涨,为时尚早,不足以确认为一个持续性的结构性资金轮动。因为比特币的主导地位再次逼近60%的关键阻力位,表明资金可能正在回流比特币。需要更多基本面改善的持续信号来确认趋势转变。

Q文章提到了哪些支持以太坊近期走强的关键基本面因素?

A文章提到了三个关键的基本面因素支持以太坊近期走强:1. 以太坊ETF吸引了可观的资金净流入(本月超过1.28亿美元,表现优于比特币ETF);2. 以太坊的链上活动需求(DATs)正在恢复;3. Robinhood推出的Layer 2网络使用了ETH作为原生Gas代币并在以太坊主网结算,其生态活动的增长加强了对ETH的长期需求。

Q作者如何对比ETH/BTC在2025年第三季度的强劲反弹与当前(2026年第三季度初)的反弹?

A作者指出,ETH/BTC在2025年第三季度曾实现53%的强劲季度反弹,但随后卖家回吐了其中50%的涨幅,表明当时的资金轮动是暂时性的。相比之下,当前(2026年第三季度初)的5%反弹幅度较小,且比特币主导地位仍在攀升,因此暗示目前断言持续性轮动为时尚早。

QTom Lee指出的关于Robinhood Layer 2链的什么特点,被认为是以太坊的关键催化剂?

ATom Lee指出,Robinhood Layer 2链的关键特点是:它是一个突破性产品,已经产生了比许多成熟去中心化交易所(DEX)更大的交易量。更重要的是,该网络使用ETH作为其原生Gas代币,并在以太坊Layer 1上完成结算。这意味着其生态的增长将直接反哺以太坊生态系统,增强对ETH的长期需求。

Q文章的最终总结认为,ETH/BTC的突破要成为更广泛资金轮动的信号,取决于什么?

A文章的最终总结认为,ETH/BTC的突破要成为更广泛资金轮动进入以太坊的信号,取决于当前支持以太坊走强的趋势能否持续。这些趋势包括:ETF资金流入、更强的链上活动以及以Robinhood Layer 2为代表的生态系统增长。如果这些基本面趋势得以保持,当前的突破才可能预示着第三季度更广泛的资金轮动。

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