Bitcoin Quantum ‘Doomsday’ Fears Are Overblown, a16z Research Says
a16z research argues that quantum computing threats to Bitcoin are overstated, with a "cryptographically relevant quantum computer" unlikely before 2030. The real risk isn't sudden collapse but a complex, years-long migration to post-quantum cryptography. The report distinguishes between encryption (urgent for long-term data secrecy) and signatures (only vulnerable after a CRQC exists, allowing only future forgeries). Bitcoin faces specific challenges due to slow governance, exposed old coins, and low throughput, making migration difficult. However, critics like Nic Carter and Alex Pruden strongly disagree, citing rapid quantum advances—like 6,000+ physical qubit systems and improved error correction—that could enable attacks sooner. They warn blockchains, with their public keys tied to visible value, are prime targets and that migration will be far harder and slower than in traditional finance, requiring urgent action now.
bitcoinist2h ago
