Cuenta atrás para la Ley CLARITY: Si no se aprueba antes del receso de agosto, ¿qué pasará con el mercado de criptomonedas?

marsbitPublished on 2026-07-05Last updated on 2026-07-05

Abstract

El proyecto de ley CLARITY, una normativa clave para la estructura del mercado de criptoactivos en Estados Unidos, se enfrenta a una carrera contra el tiempo. A pesar de haber superado varias etapas legislativas, su aprobación antes del receso del Senado el 10 de agosto es incierta debido a dos obstáculos principales: una cláusula ética sobre tenencias de criptomonedas de funcionarios y disposiciones relacionadas con la protección de desarrolladores y la aplicación de la ley. Los analistas advierten que si no se aprueba en esta ventana, las probabilidades en 2026 caerían drásticamente, y el proceso tendría que reiniciarse en el próximo Congreso (2027). Los mercados ya están descontando esta incertidumbre, lo que se refleja en importantes salidas netas de los ETF de Bitcoin en junio. Mientras activos como Bitcoin y Ethereum tienen narrativas más estables, XRP podría ser el más afectado al perder un catalizador regulatorio clave que solidificaría su estatus de producto básico. En resumen, la aprobación del CLARITY desbloquearía claridad regulatoria e inversión institucional, pero un retraso prolongaría un periodo de espera y "desangrado lento" para el mercado mientras persiste la ambigüedad.

Autor: Qin Xiaofeng, Odaily Planet Daily

La tan esperada "Ley de Transparencia del Mercado de Activos Digitales" (Ley CLARITY) continúa siendo pospuesta, como era de esperar. La senadora Cynthia Lummis había indicado previamente que los negociadores esperaban finalizar el texto de compromiso definitivo "alrededor del 4 de julio (Día de la Independencia de EE.UU.)" y "avanzar en julio", pero el progreso actual está claramente retrasado.

Ahora, acercándose al período de receso del Senado el 10 de agosto, la ventana de oportunidad se reduce cada vez más: el proyecto de ley debe alcanzar el umbral de 60 votos en el Senado (requiriendo al menos 7 votos de demócratas que se sumen al apoyo), coordinar el texto con el Comité de Agricultura del Senado, fusionarse con el proyecto de ley de la Cámara de Representantes y ser firmado por el presidente, todo esto debe completarse en los próximos 25 días laborables, un cronograma extremadamente ajustado.

Si se pierde la ventana anterior al receso de agosto, la probabilidad de que la Ley CLARITY sea aprobada este año disminuirá aún más. De hecho, los datos del mercado de predicción Polymarket muestran que la probabilidad de aprobación del proyecto de ley este año es solo del 40%; Galaxy Digital también redujo la probabilidad de aprobación para 2026 al 50%.

I. Revisión del último progreso de la Ley CLARITY

La Ley CLARITY es una legislación emblemática sobre la estructura del mercado de criptomonedas impulsada por el Congreso de EE.UU., que busca clarificar los límites regulatorios entre la SEC y la CFTC, proporcionar una ruta no de seguridad para los tokens descentralizados, y exigir el registro de intermediarios de productos básicos digitales y obligaciones antilavado de dinero.

El 17 de julio de 2025, la Cámara de Representantes aprobó con 294 votos a favor y 134 en contra el proyecto de ley HR 3633 presentado por French Hill, donde más de 70 votos provinieron de demócratas; el 14 de mayo de 2026, el Comité Bancario del Senado avanzó y aprobó con 15 votos a favor y 9 en contra (con el apoyo de 13 republicanos y 2 demócratas). El 1 de junio de 2026, la Ley CLARITY fue incluida formalmente en el calendario legislativo del Senado (Calendario No. 423), adquiriendo así la elegibilidad para una consideración integral.

Sin embargo, durante todo junio, el avance de la Ley CLARITY no fue fluido. El 9 de junio, las negociaciones sobre las cláusulas éticas relacionadas con las tenencias de criptomonedas del presidente se rompieron, lo que directamente suavizó la postura de algunos legisladores demócratas o les hizo plantear condiciones adicionales, ralentizando el ritmo para llevar el proyecto de ley al debate en el pleno. El 10 de junio, la Casa Blanca se reunió con grupos policiales y de fiscales; posteriormente, la lucha por la aplicación de la Cláusula 604 (cláusula de protección para desarrolladores) en la "Ley de Certeza Regulatoria de la Cadena de Bloques" llegó a un punto muerto; si no se resuelve, los grupos de aplicación de la ley podrían presionar en contra, y los legisladores demócratas podrían votar en contra por "no proteger suficientemente a los consumidores/combatir el crimen".

En resumen, el primero es un "umbral político/ético", y el segundo es una "línea roja de aplicación de la ley/seguridad", que juntos constituyen los dos últimos obstáculos principales para que la Ley CLARITY "pase" en el Senado. Si no se resuelven, será difícil reunir los 60 votos y el texto final, y por lo tanto, no se podrá completar la legislación antes del receso del 10 de agosto. Estas dos negociaciones han obstaculizado directamente el avance final de la Ley CLARITY, convirtiéndose en la "piedra de tropiezo" clave que llevó al fracaso del objetivo del 4 de julio y al estancamiento general del progreso. Actualmente, las negociaciones aún intentan romper el hielo, pero el tiempo es ya muy limitado.

Brian Gardner, estratega jefe de políticas de Washington en Stifel Financial, señaló que para que el proyecto de ley sea aprobado en 2026, "probablemente necesite ser aprobado por el Senado a fines de julio, preferiblemente en junio", advirtiendo que si el Senado se pierde el período de receso, las perspectivas se deteriorarán significativamente.

Sin embargo, el mercado ya no tiene muchas esperanzas de que el proyecto de ley sea aprobado este año. Alex Thorn, director de Galaxy Research, redujo el 5 de junio su predicción de aprobación del proyecto de ley en 2026 del 75% al 60%, citando la creciente tensión en la agenda del Senado. Los datos del mercado de predicción Polymarket muestran que la probabilidad de aprobación del proyecto de ley este año es solo del 40%.

II. ¿Qué pasaría con las criptomonedas si la "Ley CLARITY" no se aprueba a tiempo?

Según el análisis de CCN, si la Ley CLARITY no se aprueba antes del receso de agosto, la reacción más probable del mercado no sería un colapso, sino un "sangrado lento a través de productos premium". De hecho, el desempeño deficiente de las criptomonedas durante todo junio ya indica que el mercado ha comenzado a revalorizar la incertidumbre legislativa. (Nota de Odaily: Los productos premium mencionados aquí se refieren principalmente a varios ETF al contado).

Los datos muestran que durante todo junio, los ETF de Bitcoin al contado en EE.UU. acumularon una salida neta de aproximadamente 4,500 millones de dólares, equivalentes a aproximadamente 77,000 BTC rescatados; esta es la mayor salida neta mensual desde el lanzamiento del producto en enero de 2024, superando el récord anterior de febrero de 2025 (aproximadamente 3,560 millones de dólares), estableciendo un nuevo récord histórico mensual negativo.

De hecho, XRP podría ser uno de los activos más afectados directa y significativamente por el proyecto de ley, ya que este clasificaría permanentemente al token como una mercancía, eliminando el riesgo de interpretación reversible por parte de las agencias. Si hay un retraso prolongado o un fracaso, XRP podría perder parte de su "prima por perspectiva regulatoria favorable".

Geoffrey Kendrick, director global de investigación de activos digitales en Standard Chartered, proyecta un precio objetivo para XRP de 8 dólares, suponiendo la aprobación total del proyecto de ley relevante por parte del Senado y un flujo de capital de ETF de entre 4,000 y 8,000 millones de dólares. JP Morgan predice que, si el proyecto de ley se aprueba, los ETF de XRP atraerían entre 4,300 y 8,400 millones de dólares en su primer año. Los datos muestran que desde el lanzamiento del ETF al contado de XRP en noviembre de 2025, se han acumulado entradas netas de aproximadamente 1,410 millones de dólares, de los cuales el 84% provino de minoristas, y las entradas institucionales aún esperan señales regulatorias claras.

Para Bitcoin, que ya fue clasificado como una mercancía a través de la interpretación conjunta de la SEC y la CFTC en marzo de 2026, el principal efecto de la Ley CLARITY sería hacer permanente esta decisión reversible en la ley federal. Incluso si el proyecto de ley fracasa o se retrasa mucho, la narrativa de Bitcoin como "oro digital" es relativamente sólida y sufriría un impacto directo menor.

El impacto en ETH es similar al de Bitcoin; Ethereum también fue clasificado como una mercancía en la interpretación conjunta. El fracaso del proyecto de ley podría llevar a que los protocolos DeFi enfrenten una ambigüedad regulatoria prolongada, suprimiendo la innovación y la entrada de capital. Geoffrey Kendrick de Standard Chartered proyecta un precio objetivo para ETH de 7,500 dólares para fines de 2026 (posteriormente reducido a 4,000 dólares), suponiendo la aprobación del proyecto de ley relevante.

Kristin Smith, directora del Instituto de Políticas de Solana, declaró que muchos asignadores de activos están explorando activamente la inversión en activos digitales, pero debido a que las pautas regulatorias aún no son claras, están reteniendo sus fondos. La misma lógica se aplica al DeFi institucional; actualmente, los proyectos DeFi también están en espera pendientes de la resolución de la Cláusula 604.

III. ¿Hacia dónde se dirige el camino?

El tiempo que le queda a la Ley CLARITY para superar este obstáculo no es mucho. Podrían darse las siguientes situaciones:

Primero, aprobación antes del receso de agosto: El mayor catalizador, posiblemente con un rebote significativo de precios, especialmente para XRP y los ETF relacionados;
Segundo, posposición hasta 2027: Lo que el mercado menos desea, prolongando el proceso de "sangrado lento", con el capital institucional continuando en observación;
Tercero, fracaso y traslado a la próxima sesión: La Ley CLARITY se encuentra actualmente en el 119º Congreso. Si no se completa la votación en el pleno del Senado, la coordinación y la aprobación final antes del receso de agosto de 2026, todo el proceso no podrá concluir dentro de este Congreso; al comenzar el nuevo Congreso (120º, 2027-2028), el proyecto de ley debe reintroducirse y recorrer nuevamente todo el proceso de consideración en comités, debate en el pleno, etc.

La "Ley CLARITY" se encuentra actualmente en una fase clave de "estar a punto de lograrlo pero atascarse", técnicamente ya está en el calendario del Senado, pero las negociaciones políticas, la ventana de tiempo y el apoyo bipartidista siguen siendo los mayores obstáculos.

Sin embargo, como dijo Vincent Chok, CEO de First Digital: "El simple hecho de que la Ley CLARITY haya entrado en votación en el pleno del Senado muestra que Estados Unidos está más cerca que nunca de resolver la ambigüedad regulatoria... Una votación exitosa aceleraría este proceso, pero un fracaso no lo detendría necesariamente. De hecho, el retraso en el marco estadounidense crearía una sensación de urgencia y prolongaría la ventana de tiempo para establecer estándares globales, pudiendo Estados Unidos convertirse en el centro de facto de los activos digitales a nivel mundial".

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