通证:当发行代币时,他们都在想什么?

去中心化金融社区Published on 2022-08-17Last updated on 2022-08-17

Abstract

启动代币需要深入分析。代币作为一个工具和协议被单独审查。

启动代币需要深入分析。代币作为一个工具和协议被单独审查。为了成功启动代币,需要考虑以下几点:

社区对项目实用程序、路线图和网络的参与度。

所有权的分配。按百分比计算,代币分发所有权取决于使用协议的人。

公平的激励分配:充分考虑分配给各种协议活动的奖励,以确定公平和适当的去中心化。

有句话说:“当你研究一个协议时,要像一个风险投资家那样去研究,这样你就能更像项目的创始人那样去看待事情。”

代币模型

一个即将到来的项目,想要确定它的代币价值如何时,下面的模型应该被仔细考虑:

通缩模型($BTC, $LTC, $BCH):

通缩代币模型展现了为创建的代币数量设置的峰值水平。也就是代币的硬顶。当对这种代币的需求随着时间推移而增加,而供应却没有增加时,它就充当了一种通缩机制。

通胀模型($DOT, $SOL):

它也被称为实用代币。这种代币是无限供应的。这意味着创建的代币数量没有硬顶,因此需要多次迭代来进行维护。一些项目将代币的创建时限定为每年一次,一些则为其创建设置了时间表,其他则根据代币需求确定其供应。

双代币模型:

代币被称为价值储存。除此之外,项目还会将代币作为激励媒介。双代币模型将价值存储和实用代币结合在一起。这意味着用户会被激励持有价值代币,以促进实用代币产生奖励,而它们可用于链上交易。

资产支持模型:将资产价值与代币基础资产进行挂钩。

协议资金和代币浮动

启动一个项目需要足够的资金。为了实现这一点,代币分发机制被用来吸引投资者。在首次发行时,代币发行者有多种流通代币的方式。

融资:通过ICO,或IDO,或通过私人出售。这允许发行人以固定价格以及在满足不同需求的情况下,直接向个人和普通公众出售代币。

非融资:这种方法要求以空投和奖励激励的形式向其他加密代币的现有用户分发代币。这些代币的发布通过共识机制进行。它们是对选择执行协议中各种活动的矿工或持有者进行的奖励。每种分发方法都有不同的用途,会对代币的性能产生不同的影响。

实用代币的浮动

项目启动的浮动,是因为早期的风险投资者和团队有锁定期和归属期。实用代币让持有者有机会使用去中心化网络提供的数字服务。对于稳定的定价和增长而言,提供与商品代币的需求水平相匹配的最优供应才是有价值的。(注:浮动意味着波动)

我们非常需要一种理性合理的定价和供应政策,以遏制投机行为,同时还需要一种机制,以使用自主智能合约实现金库功能。

ICO(首次代币发行):这是一种代币分发措施和融资机制。然而,这种机制存在争议。向人群分发代币可以引导用户网络,产生市场需求,提供实用程序,为用户生成访问权限。

更深入的分析表明,通过预售产生的流动性,未来应被视为或有负债。必须通过交付承诺的代币并产生应得的收入来迅速偿还此类债务。

投机和代币

如前所述,要确定项目的可靠性,项目必须阻止投机行为。大众购买的代币的比例,不代表近期使用该实用程序的数量。构建实用程序的项目必须考虑并意识到生成与此类实用程序匹配的代币所产生的责任和风险。同样,他们也许考虑清楚是否希望市场决定如何定价和操纵代币供应。

代币与投机

新项目的流动性相对较低。在真正确立其在市场上的地位之前,它将是一个长尾产品。随着用户发现它符合他们的需求,才会增加对该项目的需求。随着用户数量的增长,就会产生一定程度的网络增长。这种效应的不断叠加,直到其累积价值产生指数效应。因此,价值的增加会提高实用代币的价格,随着网络使用的增加,实用代币的供应也会增加。

资金管理和货币政策自动化

给定两个项目A和B,举例:

A项目在2020年6月筹集了1.11亿美元,截至2021年6月,金库还有37,029,135美元。

B项目在2020年9月筹集了1380万美元。将其ICO基金按25%的比例分成$BTC、$ETH、$USDT和$USD。

分析:

项目A在该阶段结束时,有 75% 的资金来自其 ICO。在ICO期间,代币价值为8300万美元。在牛市的巅峰时期,其价值为2.69亿美元。然而,在这一时期结束时,它的价值为3700万美元。

维持75%的项目资金是非常不稳定的,可能会导致问题。根据项目的初始业务计划和扩展计划,可以确定项目的财务水平。如果它是基于最初的融资数据,那么在损失了大部分的金库价值后,问题就更大了。

B项目有一个很好的资金多元化计划。然而,没有进行风险评估。在牛市之后,这些资金累积为$BTC和$ETH,并因管理不善而出现反复亏损。

DeFi 协议在通过 DAO金库获得收益方面面临障碍。这些DAO中的大多数都使用治理代币创建它们的金库。产生收益的一种方式是向AMM去中心化交易所提供流动性。然而,这会受到无常损失的影响,使金库资金保持闲置而不是被利用。

为了恢复金库的效用,他们会为治理代币创建借贷协议。缓解资金闲置,构建新的项目效用,并重新生成进一步的协议收益,以提高利用率。

明确地说,就是协议清算他们的金库以获得资源来进行运营。考虑到大多数协议的资金都在治理代币中,在熊市期间退出是极其有害的。这是因为在公开市场上出售金库资产会被认为是对团队的信心不足,进而会导致FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt)并且价格会下跌。

因此,资金管理对于任何基于定价和供应政策运营实用代币的项目来说都非常重要。

自动化的货币政策

做市商智能合约的建立是为了在没有交易对手的情况下,为实用代币建立流动性的长尾阶段,建立一个去中心化的自动化金库功能。它更像是一台出售代币并为未使用的代币提供退款的分配机。销售价格为上限,退款为下限。大多数协议在构建他们的TGE(代币生成事件)和流动性时使用这一点。

然而,在这些阶段之后,随着使用需求的上升,市场决定数字效用的代币价格。

代币供应智能合约经过精心设计,可以根据内在价值和市场需求动态定价。这将有效地提供预期水平的流动性,提供实用性,并帮助建立市场。

以下是重要的注意事项:

用户寻求收益,并希望利用高收益奖励。当奖励下降时,需求也会下降,最终导致价格下降。

购买和销毁给资产价格带来了上行压力,并人为制造了一种需求感。

机构投资者更有可能持有产生大量收益的代币,或他们能够以预售价格购买的代币。目的是创造可持续性。

只要有锁定期,预挖、创始人和团队分配似乎不会影响价格表现。

流通供应量很少的代币比流通供应量大的代币表现更好。

固定收益奖励(通货膨胀)实际上可以通过激励持有者在缺乏硬顶的情况下继续持有来促进长期增长。

代币估值

在DeFi协议中,池的基础设施中分了多种代币类型:质押或治理代币和奖励代币是最简单的类型。通过各种DeFi产品,如交易、加密抵押贷款、借贷服务、流动性挖矿等,这些代币有多种方式能使其增值。代币经济学和估值在确定代币价值方面非常重要。

对代币经济学的探索分为两类:

MICROTOKENOMICS

MACROTOKENOMICS

MICROTOKENOMICS可以被认为是驱动区块链经济中个体参与者功能的特性。例如挖矿奖励以及它们如何随时间变化等。此外,需要机制来调整代币供应、需求和速度。这些机制包括归属期、挖矿难度和通货膨胀率。

另一方面,MACROTOKENOMICS包含与更广泛的区块链经济相互作用相关的特征。它们往往包括治理(如谁决定下一个特性是什么),生态系统内的参与者互动,以及代币增长和波动的外部因素(例如代币的效用和交易所的流动性)。正是所有变量的交互产生了所谓的“代币经济”。

估值

在传统经济学和金融学中,有三种评估资产价值的方法:资产法,市场法和现金流贴现(DCF)。这些方法针对加密资产进行了测试,但仍有限制。这导致管理者和投资者之间产生困惑和不确定性。由于数字资产空间需要对这些资产进行不同的分析,从而导致资产管理者之间因这些权衡而自行决定,因此情况更加严重。代币价值分为四个基本支柱:

支柱1:表示“价值应该代表长期的内在价值,而不是短期波动”。这里的意思是,投资者应该更关注他们正在评估的加密货币资产的长期价值。在这个模型中,资产的加权平均价格是根据一个财政季度来评估的。

支柱2:指出“价值应包括基于客观衡量的流动性风险折扣”。没有正确的贴现率措施来衡量代币的价值。贴现率从0-90%不等。它还表示,“流动性风险应该在现金流的早期阶段增加。

支柱3:声明“价值应该与任何其他启动投资计算的价值相当”。

支柱4:指出“价值应基于一致的设定考虑”。也就是说,估值方法必须在资产生命周期内保持一致。

在数学上,用于给一个代币赋值的公式如下:

Av= C + {(Wtp -C} * r * (1-t) * Tq;

Av =资产价值。

C=资产的初始成本。

Wtp=加权平均价格。

r =贴现率。

t =税率。

Tq=代币数量。

代币是存在于网络平面上的全数字实体。因此,在智能合约上对变量进行财务和技术分析。所使用的估值方法分为七(7)种:

宏观经济分析(Mv = Pq)。

网络比率。

期权定价方法。

图表分析或技术分析。

网络价值与梅特卡夫定律。

社区相关指标。

调整后的贴现现金流量法。

多个区块链以及大量区块链本身有各种协议。在固定比率上不可能确定代币的值。因此,需要各种方法。

在经济框架的机制设计中加入了估值,以构建实用代币。

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