比特币重上 7 万,卖方流动性激增,“牛市陷阱” 再现?

Cointelegraph中文Published on 2026-03-12Last updated on 2026-03-12

Abstract

比特币的卖方流动性达到了两个月来的新高,情况与一月份时类似。交易员是否应该为抛售做准备?

比特币(BTC)似乎已经重新站上了7万美元支撑位,但市场依旧保持谨慎,因为技术图表显示,市场正处于类似2026年1月“牛市陷阱”的格局。

在最新区间回测期间,比特币的卖方流动性大幅增加。加密货币交易员Ardi表示,比特币卖单达到两个月新高。这位交易员称,

“比特币的卖单刚刚创下两个月新高。价格上方有15.7亿美元的卖方流动性,而下方买单仅有11.25亿美元。”

在现货价格上下各5%的区间内,卖单数量约比买单多出40%,使市场价格之上形成了更厚重的供应层。同时,买单则在BTC价格下方形成了较薄的支撑缓冲。

Ardi指出,上一次出现类似情况是在今年1月,当时比特币短暂突破了9.8万美元。比特币近期升破7.2万美元后,价格又回落至区间中部,走势与之如出一辙。区间回测期间出现的高卖方流动性,往往意味着交易员借助反弹实现盈利。

另一个持仓指标也出现同样趋势。比特币30日净主动成交量的移动平均值在3月持续保持正数,达8300万美元,显示主导通过市价单的买盘持续增加。

BTC的“深套”筹码会否抑制反弹?

比特币短期持有者(STHs)的成本数据显示,平均持有者入市价格显著更高。STH实现价格(即持有不满六个月的币平均获得价)目前接近8.89万美元。

据比特币研究员Axel Adler Jr.介绍,最大供应密集区间位于8.6万美元至9.9万美元之间,大量比特币正是于2025年11月至2026年2月期间在该区间内集中买入,这一区间成为短期市场的主要盈亏平衡带,是关键的市场拐点。

积极的一面在于,实现盈亏数据显示卖压开始收敛。加密分析师Darkfost指出,上周实现亏损6.11亿美元,实现盈利为3.46亿美元,周度净盈亏为-2.64亿美元。

该数值明显低于2月份比特币跌破6万美元时录得的20亿美元周度亏损。

与1月回测时相比,比特币当前价格距离主要短期成本密集区间更远,这限制了小幅反弹时常见的平价抛售压力。

因此,许多短期持有者或许宁愿等待价格升至更高位置、更接近8.6万美元,而不是在经历一个月盘整后亏损出局。

重返7万美元至7.2万美元区间能阶段性缓解短线卖压,但真正的转折或需比特币收复8.6万美元至8.9万美元区间,此时大多数短期持有者可以实现盈亏平衡。

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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