三张比特币(BTC)走势图揭示下一轮大行情的技术布局

Cointelegraph中文Published on 2026-03-12Last updated on 2026-03-12

Abstract

交易所数据显示流动性正在转移,交易者持仓正在变化,这些因素可能支撑比特币的下一波价格走势。

比特币(BTC)下一轮大突破,或取决于当前币安交易所资金流向与衍生品市场动态的变动。

目前,全球最大加密货币交易所的链上数据显示,巨鲸入金出现降温,比特币提币数量上升,同时期货市场占比不断扩大,这些趋势或将影响比特币未来的价格走势。

2月飙升后,比特币巨鲸活动回落

币安比特币交易所巨鲸比例衡量前十大入金与交易所总入金比值,今年2月初一度飙升至0.60上方,显示巨鲸卖盘压力强势释放。

此后,14日移动均值趋近于0.45,回到2024年与2025年整体区间。大额入金激增的减少表明,在当前区间阶段,主导卖方流入币安的资金有所降温。

同期价格走势同样值得关注。2月回调后,比特币在6.5万美元至7.2万美元区间企稳,未出现进一步下跌。

同时,加密分析师CW指出,部分巨鲸或仍在持续买入。比特币累积成交量差 (CVD) 指标显示,近期盘整期间,巨鲸持续净买入。

同时,巨鲸也展现出持续吸筹迹象。加密分析师CW表示,比特币累积成交量差(CVD)数据显示,在BTC价格盘整时大户持续买入。

CVD用于追踪主动市价买入与卖出之间的净差额。当价格横盘时若该指标处于较高水平,可能意味着大资金正在吸收市场筹码,但价格尚未大幅上行。

BTC提币量上升,期货交易量主导现货

自2月中旬以来,交易所净流入也发生了变化。总净流入衡量进出交易所的币数量差。

到3月11日,14日移动均值已降至-1151枚比特币,显示平台上的比特币持续大量提币。意味着更多BTC正在离开交易所,即期可售筹码减少。

与此同时,衍生品市场交投同步放量。加密分析师Maartunn表示,币安期货与现货交易量比率已升至约5.3,创2023年10月以来新高,表明期货市场交易额已超过现货市场五倍以上。

期货活跃度大幅提升,意味着交易者加大杠杆,准备应对比特币价格波动。

与此同时,Coinbase研究指出,现货需求趋于回暖。该交易所提及,短期持有者的已花出产出利润比(SOPR指标)自2月末起持续回升。

据该交易所分析,短期持有者SOPR指标在比特币和以太坊(ETH)均回升至1以上,显示近期需求足以吸收新入场交易者的卖盘压力。这有助于维持BTC维持在当前区间。

这些因素凸显比特币近期盘整阶段背后的深层原因,若BTC能将7万美元筑为坚实支撑,或将助推价格结构进一步重估。

不过,若未来数日或数周无法突破7.2万美元阻力,市场或将确认“牛市陷阱”,若历史重现,后续或进一步下探。

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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