Bitcoin Vs. Altcoins: You Should See This Chart That Shows Another Alt Season Is About To Begin

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-02-27Last updated on 2026-02-27

Abstract

Based on a long-term chart analysis by crypto expert @CyrilXBT, the total altcoin market cap relative to Bitcoin has returned to a critical historical level of approximately 0.129, which has previously signaled the start of major altcoin seasons. This ratio, representing the total crypto market excluding the top 10 assets compared to Bitcoin, is now in what the analyst describes as the "base" or "accumulation zone." Historically, this level has preceded significant altcoin rallies, such as those in 2017-2018 and the largest recorded alt season in 2021 when the ratio surged above 0.55. Despite recent Bitcoin dominance and price declines, the current market reset suggests that conditions may be forming for a new alt season. The analyst notes that if historical patterns repeat, the ratio could potentially reach between 0.80 and 0.90 in the current cycle. This indicates that altcoins are not "dead" but may be poised for a significant upward movement as market dynamics align with past bullish trends.

Talks of a potential altcoin season this cycle have since subsided compared to previous years, despite the recent decline in the Bitcoin (BTC) price and dominance. Notably, a crypto analyst has shared a new long-term chart showing the total altcoin market capitalization relative to Bitcoin at a level that has historically preceded major alt seasons. Based on his analysis, the alt market has fully reset and could be gearing up for a fresh altcoin season if historical trends play out as expected.

Historic Alt Season Setup Forms As Bitcoin Ratio Hits Base Zone

In a recent analysis on X, market expert @CyrilXBT shared a monthly chart tracking the ratio of the total crypto market, excluding the top 10 assets, to Bitcoin. According to the analysis, the chart currently sits at approximately 0.129, a level the analyst describes as the same base or accumulation zone that has launched every major altcoin season in crypto history.

@CyrilXBT noted that this zone is where all alt seasons are born, with each past altcoin rally beginning when the ratio stopped falling and stabilized around the $0.12 to $0.13 range. Looking at the chart, the analyst noted that during the 2015-2016 cycle, the ratio starts near zero and remains flat, with minimal volatility. Following this, a dramatic spike occurred during the 2017-2018 bull run, pushing the altcoin vs Bitcoin ratio above 0.3, marking one of the first major alt seasons.

By 2020, the ratio crashed back below the 0.129 level, erasing most of its previous gains as it consolidated near the low-ranged accumulation/base zone. Notably, 2021 marked the largest altcoin season spike in history, with the ratio exploding upward to over 0.55 amid the bull market frenzy. During this time, volume hit new highs, with bars towering above those of previous years.

New Alt Season Conditions Take Shape

Similar to the 2020 crash, the 2022-2024 cycle saw a post-peak correction, with the ratio trending downward as Bitcoin regained dominance. In the current 2025-2026 cycle, the altcoin vs Bitcoin ratio has finally returned to the historically significant 0.129 accumulation zone, with BTC.D falling to a yearly low of 57.9%.

@CyrilXBT has suggested that the current positioning mirrors the pre-altseason setup that led to a major altcoin explosion in previous years. He noted that the rising trendline connecting successive altcoin season peaks on the chart points to a ratio of roughly 0.80 to 0.90 as the next potential target for this cycle.

As the ratio stabilizes and historical trends repeat, @CyrilXBT argues that recent market performance does not indicate that altcoins are dead. Rather, it shows that the market has fully reset and could be quietly creating the conditions for its next alt season.

Total altcoin market cap remains below $1 trillion | Source: Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC from Tradingview.com

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