大热赛道、新交互机会：YZi Labs看好的三家预测市场

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-12-23Last updated on 2025-12-23

Abstract

预测市场是近期热门赛道，BNB Chain生态内三家平台表现突出，且均获得YZi Labs投资。根据12月22日数据，Opinion以1.25亿美元日交易量领先，占75%份额；PancakeSwap团队孵化的Probable以2400万美元占14.5%；由NFT领域知名人物dingaling创立的predict.fun则以1700万美元占10.5%。 Opinion是BNB Chain生态首个预测市场平台，已完成500万美元种子轮融资，并推出圣诞新年积分活动，用户可通过交易量、持仓时间和提供流动性等方式获取积分。predict.fun创新性地让用户资金在预测期间同时产生收益，首周积分活动即将结束，第二周活动将接续启动。Probable由PancakeSwap与YZi Labs共同支持，主打零手续费和全链上结算，积分系统即将上线，当前正统计用户交易量。 三家平台均通过积分活动激励用户参与，推动预测市场在BNB Chain生态的发展。

原创 | Odaily 星球日报(@OdailyChina)

作者 | Asher(@Asher_ 0210)

预测市场是近期社区讨论度极高的话题,除了 Polymarket、Kalshi 外,近期 BNB Chain 生态的预测市场也在发展壮大。根据 Dune 数据,从昨日 BNB Chain 生态三大预测视频平台交易量来看,Opinion 目前遥遥领先其他两家,市场份额占 75%,昨日交易量 1.25 亿美元;其次,背靠 PancakeSwap 团队的 Probable 市场份额占 14.5%,昨日交易量 2400 万美元;创始人为 dingaling 的 predict.fun 占据第三,市场份额占 10.5%,昨日交易量 1700 万美元。

BNB Chain 生态预测市场份额占比(12 月 22 日)

BNB Chain 生态预测市场交易量(12 月 22 日)

下面,Odaily星球日报带大家了解 BNB Chain 生态获得 YZi Labs 投资的三家预测市场平台 Opinion、predict.fun 以及 Probable。

Opinion:BNB Chain 生态预测市场龙头,昨日上线圣诞&新年积分活动

Opinion 是 BNB Chain 生态首个预测市场平台。根据 ROOTDATA 数据显示,Opinion 于今年 3 月 18 日宣布完成 500 万美元种子轮融资,此轮融资由 YZi Labs 领投,echo、Animoca Ventures、Manifold、Amber Group 等参投。此外,Opinion 为此前 Binance Labs MVB 计划中 4 个表现最佳的项目之一。

积分规则

Opinion 积分分配以周为单位,每周共奖励 10 万积分,规则如下:

1、交易量要求:每周 ≥ 200U(且单笔订单≥ 10U)才能计入积分。

2、持仓时间:仓位越大、持仓时间越长 → 积分越高。

3、流动性挂单(限价单):限价挂单金额 ≥ 10U 才算积分;挂得越久、价格越贴近买一卖一价 → 积分越多;限价单 0 手续费,且加积分权重,是最稳的刷分方式(市价单为收取 2% 左右手续费)。

4、交易量及手续费:成交额越大、手续费贡献越多积分越多。

圣诞&新年积分活动

昨日(12 月 22 日),Opinion 在 X 平台发文宣布,上线圣诞&新年积分活动,具体细则如下:

  • 活动奖励:共 10 万积分;
  • 活动时间:12 月 22 日至 2026 年 1 月 5 日,为期两周;
  • 积分获得方式:Daily Warriors,共 2 万积分(每天交易 > 3 笔,且满足 > 10 天);Volume Kings:共 2 万积分(日交易量 > 2,000 美元,且满足 > 10 天);Binance Wallet Elite:共 1 万积分(活动期间累计交易量 > 2,000 美元);Diamond Hands:共 2 万积分;Mystery Finale:共 3 万积分。

此外,积分获得方式的几点注意事项如下:

  • Diamond Hands 奖励:按活动期间所有用户的时间加权未平仓头寸进行分配,数据来源于平台定期快照;
  • Daily Warriors 与 Volume Kings 奖励:在活动期间内,至少有 10 天满足对应每日交易门槛的钱包,将共同瓜分相应奖励;
  • Binance Wallet Elite 奖励:在活动期间内,通过 Binance Wallet 完成累计 > 2,000 美元交易量的用户,将共同瓜分奖励。此奖励必须使用无私钥地址(keyless address)或新导入的钱包,已在 OPINION 注册过的旧钱包不具备资格。

predict.fun:创始人为 NFT 领域知名人物 dingaling,首周积分活动将于今晚10点结束

predict.fun 为预测市场平台并在 BNB Chain 上线,创始人为此前 NFT 领域知名人物 dingaling。与 Polymarket、Kalshi 等传统预测市场不同,predict.fun 实现了一项关键创新:用户参与预测的资金不再闲置,而是可以在预测期间同时产生额外收益。

12 月 17 日,predict.fun 的创始人 dingaling 在 X 平台发文宣布,平台已正式开放,并向 BNB Chain 上的 Meme 交易者、Aster 参与者、及各预测市场活跃的用户空投了初始积分。(更多交互教程可阅读:手把手带你参与获CZ支持的predict.fun)

今日,predict.fun 官方在 X 平台发文宣布,首周积分活动将于北京时间今晚 10 点结束,3 天后预测积分奖励和其他额外的空投奖励将计入用户的个人帐户,并且排行榜也将更新。此外,第二周积分活动将在首周活动结束后立即启动。

Probable:PancakeSwap 孵化的预测市场,积分系统即将上线

12 月 16 日,PancakeSwap 宣布推出由其孵化的全链上预测市场平台 Probable(平台语言支持切换为简体中文),该项目由 PancakeSwap 与 YZi Labs 共同支持,并将独家部署在 BNB Chain 上。PancakeSwap 表示,Probable 为独立项目,其团队将在 PancakeSwap 与 YZi Labs 的支持下推进产品落地与生态扩展。

据介绍,Probable 定位为以用户为中心的链上预测平台,主打零手续费、全链上结算和简化使用体验。平台初期将不收取预测手续费,依托 BNB Chain 的低成本与高性能基础设施,支持用户对加密资产走势、全球事件、体育赛事以及部分区域性特色市场进行预测。

在机制层面,Probable 采用 UMA 的 Optimistic Oracle 作为事件裁决工具,通过基于争议的验证方式实现结果确认,以提升预测市场的透明度与抗审查能力。此外,用户可使用任意代币充值,系统将自动兑换为 BNB Chain 上的 USDT 用于参与预测,降低操作门槛。

目前,Probable 积分系统尚未上线。根据官方信息,全新的积分系统即将推出,积分将根据用户的交易量进行计算,目前后台已经开始统计并累积用户当前的交易量。

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Related Questions

Q根据文章，BNB Chain生态预测市场中，哪家平台在12月22日的交易量最高？

AOpinion平台在12月22日的交易量最高，达到1.25亿美元，市场份额占75%。

QOpinion平台完成了多少金额的种子轮融资？由谁领投？

AOpinion于2025年3月18日完成500万美元种子轮融资，由YZi Labs领投。

Qpredict.fun的创始人是谁？该平台相比传统预测市场有什么关键创新？

Apredict.fun的创始人是NFT领域知名人物dingaling。其关键创新是用户参与预测的资金不再闲置，而是可以在预测期间同时产生额外收益。

QProbable平台由谁孵化的？它主打的特点是什么？

AProbable由PancakeSwap孵化，主打零手续费、全链上结算和简化使用体验。

QOpinion平台的圣诞&新年积分活动从何时开始，持续到何时？

AOpinion的圣诞&新年积分活动从12月22日开始，持续到2026年1月5日，为期两周。

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