对话 Bitwise 投资顾问:流动性紧缩+地缘政治危机,BTC 还有牛吗?

coinvoicePublished on 2025-11-24Last updated on 2025-11-24

原文标题:Privacy Renaissance: Blockchain’s Next Era

原文作者:Paul Veradittakit,Pantera Capital 合伙人

原文编译:Saoirse,Foresight News

 

自比特币诞生以来,区块链行业的核心理念始终植根于「透明性」——它是一个开放且不可篡改的账本,任何人都可查看;其信任源于「验证」而非机构声誉。正是这种透明性,让去中心化系统能够凭借诚信与问责机制正常运转。

但随着区块链技术逐渐成熟、应用场景不断拓展,仅靠「透明」已不再足够。一个新的现实正在形成:隐私保护是推动区块链走向主流的关键,且在文化、机构与技术层面,对隐私的需求都在加速增长。在 Pantera Capital,我们从一开始就坚信这一观点——早在 2015 年,我们就投资了 Zcash,它是首批尝试为不可篡改账本引入隐私保护的项目之一。

我们认为,行业正步入「隐私复兴」时代:这一时代将开放式区块链的理念与全球金融的实际需求深度融合。而在此背景下,以「保密性」为核心原则构建的隐私协议(如即将推出主网的 Zama)迎来了发展机遇。Zama 的全同态加密(FHE)技术,是推动区块链实现主流应用的「绝对堡垒」,也能在未来几年抵御量子计算带来的威胁。区块链应用仅是 Zama 全同态加密技术的一个落地领域,该技术还可拓展至人工智能(如 Zama 旗下 Concrete 平台)、云计算等其他垂直领域。

另一个值得关注的投资标的是 StarkWare——它是 zk-STARKs 零知识证明技术与 Validium 方案的发明者,为区块链隐私保护与可扩展性提供了「混合解决方案」。StarkWare 的加密技术同样具备抗量子特性,并专注于区块链应用场景,尤其是其最新推出的「S-Two 证明器」(S-Two prover),进一步提升了技术实用性。

文化转变:从「监控疲劳」到「数字主权」

全球范围内,人们对数据的认知已发生根本性转变。多年来的大规模监控、算法追踪与数据泄露事件,让「隐私」成为近十年的核心文化议题之一。如今用户逐渐意识到:不仅信息与交易记录,就连元数据也可能泄露个人身份、财富、位置与人际关系等私密细节。

「隐私保护 + 用户对敏感数据的所有权」,已成为新的行业常态——这也是 Pantera Capital 看好的方向,为此我们投资了 Zama、StarkWare、Transcrypts 与 World 等项目。随着公众隐私意识不断提升,区块链行业必须正视一个事实:数字货币需要「保密性」,而非「全程可追溯」。在这样的环境下,隐私不再是小众需求,而是推动「数字主权」发展的重要组成部分。

机构转变:缺乏隐私的透明性无法支撑规模化应用

越来越多机构开始进入区块链生态:银行、汇款平台、支付处理商、企业与金融科技公司纷纷开展试点,准备在代币化资产、跨境结算与多司法管辖区支付网络中处理实际交易量。

但这些机构无法在「完全透明的公共账本」上运作——企业现金流、供应商网络、外汇风险敞口、合同条款与客户交易记录,绝不能向竞争对手或公众公开。企业需要的是「可选择性透明的保密性」,而非「完全暴露」。

这正是 Zcash 等早期先驱项目奠定的基础。2015 年 Pantera Capital 投资 Zcash 时,我们就意识到:隐私并非意识形态层面的偏好,而是实际经济活动的必要条件。Zcash 的核心洞见在于:隐私保护不能「事后添加」到系统中(尤其是采用零知识证明技术时),而必须嵌入协议核心——否则,后续使用会变得极为困难、脆弱且低效。

Zcash 于 2016 年作为比特币分叉项目推出,它引入的 zk-SNARKs 技术,既能隐藏交易细节,又能保证交易的完全可验证性。此外,混币协议 Tornado Cash 也是链上隐私发展的重要里程碑:随着人们寻求打破公链交易关联性的方法,该协议曾出现大量实际用户活动。

Tornado Cash 在制裁前后的 USD 流入量变化(数据来源:TRM Labs)

但 Tornado Cash 的模式存在缺陷:它仅强调强隐私保护,却缺乏「选择性披露机制」,最终导致政府机构对其发起高调法律行动——尽管该项目是自主运行的代码,仍被迫实质暂停。这一结果印证了一个关键教训:隐私保护不能以「可审计性」或「合规路径」为代价。

这也正是 Zama 全同态加密技术的核心价值所在:全同态加密支持在「加密数据」上直接进行计算,同时保留「选择性验证与披露信息」的能力——而这是 Tornado Cash 等混币协议从设计之初就不具备的功能。

全同态加密的重要性,从科技巨头的布局中可见一斑:苹果、微软等公司均在投入资源构建全同态加密框架。它们的投入传递了一个明确共识:对于消费者与机构而言,「可扩展、合规、端到端的加密技术」是数字隐私的未来。

隐私需求正加速爆发

数据印证了这一趋势:聚焦隐私保护的加密资产,正获得用户与投资者更多关注。但真正的转变并非由散户投机驱动,而是源于「隐私与透明必须共存」的实际应用场景:

• 跨境支付对区块链的依赖度日益提升,但企业与银行无法公开每一条支付路径;

• RWA 需要对「持有情况」与「投资者身份」进行保密;

• 全球供应链金融中,交易双方需要验证事件(如货运、发票、结算),但不能泄露商业机密;

• 企业级交易网络需要「审计机构与监管方可见、公众不可见」的模式。

与此同时,散户用户也对「高监控性公链」愈发不满——在这些公链上,只需简单工具就能还原交易关系图谱。如今,「隐私保护」已成为用户对数字货币的核心期待之一。

简而言之,市场正逐渐认同一个事实:无法提供保密性的区块链,在机构规模化应用中会受到结构性限制。

Canton、Zama、StarkWare 与新一代隐私架构

随着隐私复兴时代到来,新一代协议正应运而生,以满足机构需求。

以 Canton 区块链为例,它凸显了企业对「共享结算层上私有交易执行」的需求增长。这类系统允许参与者进行私密交易,同时享受「全球状态同步」与「共享基础设施」的优势——Canton 的发展充分说明:企业希望获得区块链的价值,同时避免业务数据公开暴露。

但私有计算领域最具变革性的突破,可能来自 Zama——它在隐私技术栈中占据着独特且更具可扩展性的位置。Zama 正在打造基于全同态加密(FHE)的「保密层」,支持在加密数据上直接进行计算。这意味着,整个智能合约(包括输入、状态与输出)都能保持加密状态,同时仍可在公共区块链上验证。

与「隐私优先的 Layer1 公链」不同,Zama 可兼容现有生态系统(尤其是以太坊虚拟机 EVM)——这意味着开发者与机构无需迁移到新链,只需在现有开发环境中接入隐私功能即可。

使用全同态加密(FHE)的私有智能合约(数据来源:Zama)

Zama 的架构代表了区块链隐私保护的下一个演进方向:不再是简单隐藏交易,而是实现「规模化私有智能合约」。这将解锁全新应用场景——包括私有 DeFi、加密订单簿、保密型现实世界资产发行、机构级结算清算流程与安全多方业务逻辑——且所有场景都无需牺牲去中心化特性,其中部分应用有望在短期内落地。

当前,隐私资产正获得更多关注:机构积极评估保密层技术,开发者希望在「无链下系统延迟与复杂性」的前提下实现隐私计算,监管机构也开始制定框架,区分「合法保密工具」与「非法混淆手段」。

展望未来

区块链行业的隐私叙事,已不再是「透明与保密的对立」,而是意识到:二者都是 DeFi 下一个时代的必要条件。文化态度、机构需求与加密技术突破的叠加,正重塑未来十年区块链的演进方向。

Zcash 从协议层面证明了隐私保护的必要性;Canton 等协议体现了机构对「保密交易网络」的需求;而 Zama 正在构建基础设施,有望将这些需求整合为「跨链通用可扩展隐私层」。

Pantera Capital 早期投资 Zcash,源于一个简单的信念:隐私保护不是「可选项」。近十年后,这一观点的相关性愈发凸显——从代币化资产到跨境支付,再到企业结算,下一波区块链应用落地的关键,在于实现「安全、无缝、私密」的技术体验。

随着隐私保护成为本轮市场周期的核心主题,那些能提供「实用、可扩展、合规保密方案」的协议,将定义行业未来格局。其中,Zama 作为「隐私超级周期」中极具潜力与时效性的领军者,正脱颖而出。

 


声明:本内容为作者独立观点,不代表 CoinVoice 立场,且不构成投资建议,请谨慎对待,如需报道或加入交流群,请联系微信:VOICE-V。

来源:Foresight News

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