随着比特币价格的下降 MSTR正在变成可以把比特币价格炸沉的“僵尸”

华尔街日报Published on 2025-11-23Last updated on 2025-11-23

也就是在三个月前,比特币金库公司Strategy (MSTR) 的股价,还比它实际拥有的比特币价值高出70%。这意味着,投资者宁愿花170美元去买只值100美元的比特币资产。

现如今,随着比特币价格的下跌,MSTR的价格跌得更重,目前所谓的“溢价”已经基本消失,甚至已经处于“折价”状态。

在“溢价期”,公司通过发行可转换债券等方式借入低成本资金,购买更多比特币。这就像用信用卡(杠杆)买入能升值的资产,一旦比特币价格上涨,收益将被成倍放大。投资者购买MSTR,买的是一个加了杠杆的比特币敞口,这种策略本身就值钱。

从估值角度来看,MSTR本身并不为股东创造任何新的额外现金流(其现金流主要来自于融资活动),因其持有的所有比特币都没有用来产生收益,而只是“囤积”而已。MSTR此前“成功的秘诀”就在于溢价,只有存在溢价的情况下,MSTR才有动力去拿新融资来的钱去买比特币,并通过这种方式为股东创造“价值”。

比如说MSTR的“净资产”(主要是比特币)价值为每股100美元,但其股价因溢价而达到了150美元(即50%的溢价)。现在,MSTR就可以150美元的价格增发一股新股,获得150美元现金,然后它用这150美元去市场上购买比特币。

关键点就在于:新股东用150美元买入了一股,这一股背后只需要有价值100美元的比特币就能“回本”。MSTR再用多出来的50美元,为包括新股东在内的所有股东,额外购买了比特币。结果就是这次融资不仅没有稀释老股东人均持有的比特币数量反而提升了这个指标。每一次在高溢价下的融资,都变成了对全体股东的“比特币增值”。

所以MSTR的成功的秘诀本身就是溢价,没有溢价就没有MSTR的模式。

但现如今MSTR在经历了股价大幅下跌之后,已经进入“折价”状态,这究竟意味着什么!?

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