ETH的“周天子”困局与SOL的“创业邦”崛起

比推Published on 2025-11-21Last updated on 2025-11-21

首先要说明的是,我和我们机构自己同时持有ETH和SOL,所以并不是因为持仓了SOL,就喜欢挑刺ETH。ETH的问题是长期存在的,并不会因为之前的hype,就让市场忽略它的问题。

以太坊像一个诸侯制的国际化NGO——官僚化、分权、讲程序正义。V神就是周天子,过早地失去了中心化的权力,让L2成为了诸侯,地方诸侯的财政上交到中央的比例非常有限。甚至有点像前苏联解体后的独联体邦联,或者大英帝国瓦解后的Commonwealth国家联盟,甚至连这点关系也算勉强。

另外,ETH会不会IBM化?微软、Amazon、英伟达都几万亿了,IBM还在那里趴着:它是一个很有品牌的东西,到处技术输出、赋能别人,但最后它的生意并不是整个市场的take rate(抽税模式才是最强的生意,比如亚马逊从商家交易抽税,Google从全球商家的广告支出抽税),而是变成一个做tech license授权的组织(而且 ETH 的授权还是免费的,人人都能用 EVM)。

还有一个老生常谈的问题,就是开发者文化中,谁接近基金会、能够炫耀和基金会的关系,谁就拥有“正统性”,就能享受更多投资人和社区的关照。这种向心式的跪舔文化,又与以太坊的初心背道而驰。

另外,我听到一些华尔街几大机构私下交流时提到,华尔街玩家来ETH,一方面是因为它是历史最悠久、最可靠、有品牌的第一条公链;另一方面,竟然是因为他们很多人想发permission chain,而ETH在这方面的技术已经经过多年验证。这个思路,也是把ETH当IBM用;看来华尔街机构的心思,和中资金融机构也有异曲同工之处。

相比较之下,Solana则是典型的创业团队文化——集中、高效、执行力强。商业模式是一体化的大统一,一个币支撑整个系统。开发者文化像“火人节”:年轻、热烈、实验精神强,更接近校园黑客文化。如果从团队和文化的角度,我还是觉得Solana更像是一个跨国科技创业团队。

不管怎么样,最后大家都在为全球资产上链共同努力,有竞争,对我们所有人都是好事。


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