Key Takeaways
Why is Bitcoin struggling to maintain an uptrend?
Institutional appetite has weakened, with negative Coinbase Premium and rising ETF outflows signaling bearish sentiment.
Could Bitcoin rebound despite current market weakness?
Yes, strong long-term holder conviction and sustained exchange outflows suggest potential for a short-term recovery.
Since the October sell-off, Bitcoin [BTC] has struggled to sustain an uptrend, trading within a descending channel. In fact, at press time, Bitcoin was trading at $96 918, down 13.54% on monthly charts reflecting intense, bearish pressure.
Amid this bearishness, the question is what’s behind it and if recovery is in sight.
Why is Bitcoin struggling?
Bitcoin has struggled recently as institutional investor appetite has fallen sharply.
For starters, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for two consecutive weeks, hitting a low of -0.077 at press time.
Source: CryptoQuant
With this metric negative, it indicates an apparent lack of enthusiasm, especially from U.S. investors and institutions.
Surprisingly, even after the government shutdown ended days ago, this metric has yet to turn positive. Instead, it has continued to decline, a clear bearish signal for Bitcoin’s recovery.
Source: CryptoQuant
At the same time, Coinbase Premium Gap has also declined for two consecutive weeks, reaching a low of -77.
Such a sharp drop indicates increased selling pressure from the U.S. market as investors reduce risk, further validating this bearishness.
On top of that, Bitcoin U.S. spot ETFs have recorded increased outflows. As such, ETF Netflows have declined to -$866.7 million, hitting February lows.
Source: CoinGlass
With ETF outflows dominating the market, it suggests that funds are selling. Historically, the last time BTC saw such ETF outflows, Bitcoin took two months to recover, a clear warning of prevailing market weakness.
Long-term holders stay strong!
Interestingly, despite the current bearishness, long-term holders have held strong, thus giving Bitcoin a lifeline.
Profit-taking by long-term holders has dropped notably, with realized profits falling from 12,000 BTC to 8,000 BTC, a decrease of 4,000 BTC.
Source: Checkonchain
This implies that, even though they are still in profit, LTH lacks any meaningful incentive to continue closing their position.
As a result, Long Term Holder’s Sell Side Risk has dropped to 0.0047, reaching a monthly low. Often, a decline here means LTHs are less likely to sell under current market conditions.
Source: Checkonchain
Thus, LTHs are highly confident in the market and anticipate prices to rebound, a clear bullish signal.
A rebound or further dip for BTC?
Undoubtedly, Bitcoin’s potential recovery is in a difficult position, with the market structurally bearish amid reduced capital flow from institutions and ETFs.
These conditions position BTC for further losses if they are prolonged. Thus, if these circumstances persist, we could see Bitcoin drop to $93482.
However, with STHs, as incentives to sell fall, long-term holders offer BTC a potential rebound.
Coupled with that, exchange activity has signalled reduced selling and increased buying over the past five days. As such, Spot Netflow has remained negative for the past five days.
Source: CoinGlass
At press time, Netflow dropped to -$448 million, reflecting higher outflows. Often, higher withdrawals accelerate upside pressure, driving prices higher.
If long-term holders remain firm and exchange participants keep buying the dip, Bitcoin could rebound soon after this downturn.
A recovery would likely see BTC reclaim $99,690 and potentially set its sights on the $103,000 mark in the short term.
