一览近期可能影响 $HYPE 价格的催化剂

深潮Published on 2025-10-22Last updated on 2025-10-23

DAT、TGE、解锁、回购、ETF、收入增长、协议升级。

作者:Mercury

编译:深潮TechFlow

截至 2025 年 10 月下旬,Hyperliquid 的原生代币 $HYPE 正处于动态发展的关键时刻,Hyperliquid 有望迎来重大发展。作为去中心化永续合约交易所的领导者,Hyperliquid 已占据 DEX 衍生品交易量的相当大份额,约占 70-80%,迄今为止已创造超过 10 亿美元的收入。在生态系统的持续扩展和单向回购机制的推动下,未来几个月内有多项催化剂可能推动 $HYPE 的价格进一步上涨。以下基于近期分析和市场洞察,探讨这些关键事件,从现在延续至 2026 年。

11 月的 DAT 发布

最直接的催化剂之一是预计将于 2025 年 11 月推出第三个 DAT 。预计此次活动将筹集数亿美元,用于购买和质押 $HYPE 。具体而言,包括 Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. 最终收盘后的 3.05 亿美元时间加权平均价格(TWAP)买入,以及来自援助基金每月平均 1 亿美元的持续购买,这得益于强劲的收入趋势。总计来看,仅 11 月就可能从流通中移除约 4.05 亿美元的 $HYPE

HyperEVM TGE

基于 Hyperliquid 的 Layer-1 技术进展,HyperEVM 上的代币生成事件 TGE 正在加速推进,多个项目即将上线。值得关注的项目包括:@kinetiq_xyz@hyperlendx@felixprotocol@HypurrFi@drip__trade@prjx_hl。随着这些TGE的展开,用户可能会将一些空投的代币重新投入到 $HYPE ,从而增强生态系统内的流动性和需求。这一变化将延续至 2025 年第四季度末及以后,标志着 Hyperliquid 向类似 Solana 和以太坊的综合 DeFi 中心转型。

被压制的价格表现

近日 @Techno_Revenant 被指出通过大规模抛售显著压制了 $HYPE 的价格,正如 @mlmabc其帖子中提到的:一旦来自该实体的抛售压力减弱,结合持续的TWAP 买入以及当前价位的整体需求,我们预计短期内的价格表现将显著改善。

代币解锁和供应动态

自 2025 年 11 月 29 日起,总计 2.378 亿 $HYPE 代币(按当前价格计算价值约 119 亿美元)将在未来 24 个月内开始解锁,这将带来巨大的供应压力,引发投资者和分析师的担忧,包括 Maelstrom 在内的分析师将此视为该代币的“首次真正考验”,他们担心解锁配额可能引发抛售,稀释市场,并在更广泛的宏观不确定性背景下对价格造成下行压力。然而,如果团队决定继续持有这些解锁的代币,或者更好的选择是质押它们,那么整个供应过剩的局面似乎将瞬间消失。

援助基金和回购

援助基金继续发挥关键作用,已筹集超过 10 亿美元的资金 $HYPE 。到目前为止。我们只能假设,即使不使用积分计划,与其他永续合约 Dex 竞争对手相比,平台收入仍将持续上升。照此速度,不到 10 年,援助基金就能回购全部 $HYPE 供应。

了解 Hyperliquid 的 SWPE

截至 2025 年 10 月中旬,Hyperliquid 的$HYPE 代币的供给加权市盈率 (SWPE) 价格已跌至 2.25-2.50 左右,创下今年以来的最低点,表明相对于该协议强劲的盈利,其价值可能被低估。SWPE 是加密分析中用于像 $HYPE 这样的代币的重要指标,通过将传统市盈率调整为基于代币的有效供应或流通量(可供交易的流通代币,不包括锁定或质押的金额)进行加权来调整传统的市盈率。本质上,SWPE 通过将流通量调整后的市值除以协议年化收入来衡量代币的“便宜程度”。较低的 SWPE 值表明代币价格未能跟上盈利增长的步伐,对于价值导向的投资者而言,这是一个有吸引力的切入点。感谢 @skewga_hyper 提供的信息

ETF 和指数纳入

$HYPE 正在为 ETF 推出并被纳入新的标准普尔加密货币指数基金做准备,这将对传统价值/增长型投资者具有吸引力。由Cathie Wood领导 ARKK 基金可能会通过 DAT 进行投资以获取相关敞口。

总结

综上所述,$HYPE 正处于关键时刻,Hyperliquid 凭借着亮眼的收入表现和 HIP-3 和 USDH 等创新扩展,继续在去中心化永续合约领域占据主导地位。尽管即将推出的代币解锁会带来显著的风险,并引发投资者的谨慎情绪,但强大的回购机制和重新锁定解锁代币的潜力,或许能将这些挑战转化为持续增长和信心的机遇。再加上 ETF 和 DAT 的前景、不断增长的收入以及长期的协议升级,$HYPE 的走势表明,对于那些能明智应对波动的投资者来说,未来有望带来可观的回报。一如既往,投资者应密切关注执行情况与市场动态。本文不构成任何投资建议。

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