CPI 前夕 BTC 反弹遇阻,空头已瞄准 10 万关口?

Cointelegraph中文Published on 2025-10-23Last updated on 2026-08-16

Abstract

市场流动性不足且波动剧烈,是回归常态的阶段特征。

比特币(BTC)在 10.6 万美元关口展开反弹,不仅弥合了与黄金的分化走势,还填补了周末 CME 期货缺口,但交易者对当前行情表现出明显不满。

市场焦点转向周五关键CPI数据发布,比特币(BTC)填补了10.7万美元CME缺口

要点:

  • BTC 回撤至 10.6 万美元附近时触发反弹,同期黄金在遭遇显著日内跌幅后持续缺乏支撑,延续下行态势。
  • 未能守住关键高位支撑后,BTC 陷入低时间框架的流动性博弈格局,短期走势震荡。
  • CPI 数据周开启,已对加密货币及各类风险资产形成阶段性压力。
  • 周三华尔街开盘后,BTC 维持在 10.8 万美元水平整理,而黄金仍在探寻新的低点。

BTC/USD一小时图表。来源:Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特币反弹遇阻反转,与黄金联动逻辑生变

Cointelegraph Markets Pro 及 TradingView 的数据显示,BTC 价格当日早些时候触及 10.61 万美元后呈现剧烈波动。多次尝试突破上方阻力位均以失败告终,市场评论员警示,后续可能重新测试 10 万美元甚至更低水平。

美元指数(DXY)强势回升给 BTC 多头带来额外压力,不过截至撰文时,美元指数已出现缓和迹象。

美元指数(DXY)四小时图表。来源:Cointelegraph/TradingView

与此同时,黄金面临失守 4000 美元支撑位的风险,持续从历史高点快速回落。加密货币交易员 Roman 在 X 平台发文称:“再次强调,此前 BTC 上涨的唯一驱动因素是黄金下跌”,他所指的是 BTC 超过 11.4 万美元的局部高点,并补充道:“我认为这波上涨缺乏实质性支撑,且部分交易所正出现各类资产的集中抛售现象。”

XAU/USD一小时图表。来源:Cointelegraph/TradingView

CoinGlass 的数据显示,10.7 万美元下方的买盘流动性正逐步增强,而价格当前正试探紧邻上方的新增卖单区域。交易员 Daan Crypto Trades 进一步分析:“这是重新测试周五低点前的关键震荡区间,价格大概率不会大幅跌破该水平。”

BTC清算热图。来源:CoinGlassDaan

Daan Crypto Trades 同时指出,BTC 已填补 CME Group 比特币期货市场最新的周末 “缺口”,并表示:“CME 缺口已闭合,短期反弹表现尚可,但整体价格走势极为混乱。当前市场正回归典型的震荡格局 —— 流动性不足且波动剧烈,这正是‘行情告一段落,回归常态’的阶段特征。”

BTC/USDT永续合约四小时图表。来源:Daan Crypto Trades/X

CPI 数据将破解美国通胀迷局

美国政府停摆结束后,首个重要宏观经济数据发布在即,风险资产市场持续承压。定于周五公布的 9 月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告,将成为美联储调整利率决策的核心参考依据。

交易公司 QCP Capital 在最新的 “亚洲市场观察” 报告中指出:“停摆结束前,其他经济数据发布仍处于暂停状态,这使得 CPI 数据成为影响下周政策走向及市场反应的关键变量。若通胀数据温和,核心环比接近 0.2%,将进一步巩固市场对经济软着陆的预期,同时伴随流动性预期改善,有望为 BTC 的上行趋势提供支撑。”

美国CPI 12个月百分比变化。来源:美国劳工统计局

QCP 同时预测,若美元指数(DXY)出现走弱,将进一步强化 BTC 投资者的 “逢低买入” 策略。

本文不构成任何投资建议或推荐。任何投资与交易行为均存在风险,读者应自行研究后再做决策。

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