Bitcoin’s smartest holders aren’t selling – What happens if $116.5K cracks?

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-09-14Last updated on 2025-09-15

Key Takeaways

Can Bitcoin turn its stalled momentum around on the 15th of September?

Yes, the bullish composite signal reflected BTC’s upward momentum.

Should long-term holders be concerned about weakness?

No, the drop in profit-taking intensity over the months reflected market confidence.

Bitcoin [BTC] saw its momentum stalled over the weekend, but saw renewed conviction in the early hours of trading on the 15th of September.

The asset was about to challenge the $116.6 local high that it made on the 12th of September, and a move beyond this level would be a strong sign of short-term bullishness.

Earlier, AMBCrypto noted that the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit was at 92%. This reflected a bullish market phase but also showed a profit-taking threat.

Recent price swings were driven mainly by retail traders. By contrast, though, whales were not yet driving the market — and that explained the lack of a strong long-term trend since mid-July.

That left the pullback looking more like a pause than a reversal.

Profit-taking intensity falls

Bitcoin Realised Profit and LossBitcoin Realised Profit and Loss

Source: Darkfost

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), analyst Darkfost observed that as Bitcoin prices climbed higher, profit-taking activity grew less intense.

Realized Profit peaked at 23,000 BTC in July, when BTC traded near $123.2k.

Previous Bitcoin peaks were accompanied by higher profit-taking of 48k BTC and 39k BTC in March 2024 and January 2025, respectively.

By contrast, this pattern showed sell pressure fading as the cycle advanced, a bullish sign for long-term holders.

Donchian channel signals the next BTC move

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr demonstrated, using the Bitcoin Structure Shift Composite Signal, that the structure is still bullish.

Using the 21-day Donchian channel, he marked resistance at $116.4k and support at $107.5k.

BTC pressed the channel’s upper boundary, while the +0.6 composite signal indicated strong buyer momentum.

This meant that a breakout and an upward move were likely, but there was a chance of a short-term reversal to $113.9k for Bitcoin.

A bullish confirmation would require BTC to break $116.5k and hold above it.

 

Next: TRON stuck near $0.35 – Can rising Futures demand break TRX free?
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