比特币的涨幅为何会停滞？

深潮Published on 2025-09-09Last updated on 2025-09-10

比特币现货积累仍在进行，否则比特币价格很可能远低于当前水平。

撰文：Matt Crosb

编译：AididiaoJP，Foresight News

尽管机构持续增持，但比特币的价格走势仍不尽如人意，供需动态显示长期持有者正在获利了结。

近几周，比特币的价格让许多投资者感到困惑。尽管机构和国库公司大量增持，比特币价格却一直处于横盘状态。这究竟是机构增持的谎言，还是我们仅仅目睹了供需之间的拉锯战？

在深入研究了链上数据、国库持仓以及衍生品活动，以区分事实与阴谋论，并解释真正推动比特币价格的因素。

机构增持与比特币价格停滞的矛盾

过去几个月，ETF 和国库公司估计累计增持了 20 万枚 BTC。从整体来看，国库总持仓量现已接近 100 万枚比特币。然而尽管有这些资金流入，比特币价格在短暂触及 12 万美元以上的历史新高后回落至 10.8 万美元，之后便一直横盘整理。

为什么这种机构需求没有反映在比特币价格上？答案在于长期持有者的获利了结。自 7 月以来，已有超过 45 万枚 BTC 从长期钱包转移至新的短期市场参与者手中。这种派发行为实际上抵消了机构资金流入对比特币价格的看涨影响。

长期持有者正在获利了结

链上数据清楚显示，持有比特币四至十年的群体正在抛售。这些投资者以远低于当前的价格积累比特币，如今随着比特币价格创下历史新高，他们正在实现利润。

这种模式并不新鲜。从历史上看，长期持有者会在散户和机构推高比特币价格时减少持仓，等到市场冷却后再重新积累。当前数据表明，这一群体的抛压正在加速，加剧了比特币价格的横盘震荡。

衍生品因素的影响

对比特币价格走势形成拖累的另一个因素是期货和期权活动的增加。自 7 月以来，各交易所的衍生品未平仓合约量增加了约 5 万枚 BTC。虽然这不能直接证明「杠杆比特币」的存在，但这确实意味着资金流入了杠杆赌注，而非现货积累，从而限制了比特币价格的上行压力。

CME 期货和期权市场也显著扩张，放大了衍生品对短期比特币价格走势的影响。其净效应是：更多流动性被锁定在合约中，BTC 本身的直接买压减少。

供需动态的作用

那么，比特币价格是否被杠杆比特币操纵？证据并不强烈支持这一结论。我们正在目睹的是实时供需经济学在发挥作用：

机构累计增持 20 万枚 BTC。

长期持有者派发 45 万枚 BTC。

5 万枚以上 BTC 锁定在衍生品市场。

综合来看，这解释了为什么尽管机构需求登上头条，比特币价格却依然停滞不前。

比特币价格下一步如何走？

尽管当前状况表明短期内可能继续震荡整理，但这并不像是市场顶部。如果资金费率转为负值，一场空头挤压可能会推动比特币价格再次上涨。然而就目前而言，积累与派发之间的不平衡表明横盘走势可能持续。

放眼全局，比特币的牛市依然完好。担心「杠杆比特币」的投资者应记住：现货积累仍在进行，如果没有它，比特币价格很可能远低于当前水平。

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