盘震荡+山寨狂飙:BTC 11万遇阻 ETH 4250拉锯 RICE/DOGE/AAVE谁能爆发

金色财经Published on 2025-09-03Last updated on 2025-09-03

今天是祖国大阅兵,今天没有伤感,只有最真诚的祝福,祝愿祖国山河永固,国泰民安,繁荣昌盛。祝愿每一个看到这篇内容的朋友,万事顺遂,心想事成,越来越有钱钱!

0?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg

正文开始!

昨天美股暴跌,但币市却逆势暴涨。比特币先下探到 108400 附近后直线暴涨 11 万!以太坊也从 4257 后开始反弹暴涨,目前在 4346 附近。过去 24 小时,全球共有 106,219 人被爆仓,爆仓总金额高达 2.42 亿美元。

0?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg

比特币行情分析

1. 短线技术面:拉锯加剧,量能不足

  • 均线信号:2小时K线上出现了短期均线“金叉”,短线有反弹意图,但价格逼近 111,350 美元 强阻力,向上压力不小。

  • 成交量表现:成交量并未同步放大,出现“量价背离”,显示市场参与热度有限,观望氛围浓厚。

  • 关键价格区间

    • 上方阻力:112,500 美元 → 若突破,或进一步冲击 116,000 美元以上。

    • 下方支撑:109,500 美元 → 若跌破,后续依次看 108,000、107,400 美元,核心强支撑落在 105,500-104,000 美元 区域(200日均线支撑),极端回调可能触碰心理关口 100,000 美元。

  • MACD:2小时周期多头能量增强,但日线结构仍需确认。

2. 情绪与资金面:利好与风险并存

  • 潜在利好

    • 美联储降息预期:市场押注 9 月降息 25 基点的概率高达 89%。若落地,美元走弱可能推高比特币。

    • 巨鲸吸筹:持仓超 100 BTC 的地址增至 19,130 个,创历史新高,大户在低位持续加仓。

  • 潜在利空

    • ETF净流出:8 月美现货比特币 ETF 净流出 7.51 亿美元,单周最后一天更是流出 1.26 亿美元

    • 九月效应:过去 12 年有 8 次 9 月下跌,平均跌幅 -3.77%,月内可能存在调整压力。

3. 市场观点分化

  • 看多派:认为调整属牛市中继,若 BTC 站稳 113,500-116,000 美元 区域,四季度有望再次启动,远期依旧看向 15-20 万美元

  • 谨慎派:若 105,000 美元失守,恐继续探底,部分分析师甚至预期回踩 93,000 美元

4. 操作思路

  • 短线策略

    • 多单:109,500 美元附近尝试轻仓,止损 108,500,下看 111,500。

    • 空单:112,500 美元附近若遇阻可试空,止损 113,000,目标 110,500。

  • 中长期策略:若回落至 105,000 甚至 100,000 美元区域,可考虑分批建仓。

0?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg

以太坊行情分析

1. 趋势与关键位置

ETH 近期维持偏空格局,昨日再收阴线,延续回调趋势。

  • 支撑位:4250 美元 → 若失守,下探 4160(4H 200MA 附近),甚至 4015 美元。

  • 阻力位:4450 美元 → 若突破,则需确认站稳 4530-4550 美元 区域,方可打开上行空间。

2. 技术指标解读

  • K线结构:日线出现“黄昏之星”形态,典型看跌信号。

  • 均线系统:EMA 呈空头排列,价格短期承压。

  • MACD:2小时显示空头动能减弱,但尚未翻转。

  • RSI:日线 RSI 在 52 附近,中性偏弱。

3. 资金与情绪面

  • 鲸鱼动态:9 月 2 日交易所净流入 1.07 亿美元,为近月最大单日净流入,说明大户在吸筹。

  • 机构动作:8 月底 ETH ETF 流入约 14 亿美元,一定程度提供支撑。

  • 情绪风险:FTX 余波与宏观不确定性让市场信心不足,FUD 情绪仍存。

4. 分析师观点

  • 看多派:若 ETH 守住 4000 美元,并突破 4530,有望挑战 4800-5000 美元 高位。

  • 看空派:若失守 3800-4000 美元,可能进一步跌至 3550-3600 美元 区域,甚至下探 3500。

5. 操作策略

  • 短线交易

    • 做多:4250 美元附近试多,止损 4200,下看 4400。

    • 做空:4450 美元附近试空,止损 4500,下看 4350。

  • 中长线布局:若回踩 4000-4200 美元 区域企稳,可分批建仓,重点关注 ETF 资金流与生态发展。

 风险与总结

  • 本周美国非农就业数据将公布,或影响美联储政策 → 加密市场可能剧烈波动。

  • 比特币仍处 11 万美元区间拉锯,短线震荡格局不变;ETH 则面临 4250-4450 美元 区间博弈。

  • 长期逻辑未变,但短期风险偏高,仓位管理与止损仍是第一要务。

0?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg

山寨

DOGE:表现中规中矩,但不算弱。上次 0.15 进场,最高在 0.25-0.26 清仓,这次在 0.23 介入,后面重点看 0.32 压力位。

RICE:项目方是从 RICE 公司手里买了个壳,只是在 Alpha 收不回成本。目前 K 线走得很稳,没给过低价机会,宽频震荡洗盘。整体预期是要上合约,如果真是为了上合约,这波应该会快速拉升,不会再留上车机会。底部筹码没人要,一旦爆拉天下知。

AAVE:触发日线超卖,回顾之前两次出现超卖信号,价格都出现了持续性上涨,盈利效果非常明显。

WLFI:昨天刚上线,很多人追高被套。我之前就讲过,新币必须看腰斩再考虑。合理介入区间在 0.2-0.23,现在的低价就是收米的好机会。后面要是走强,翻倍完全有可能。

LEVER:资金费率为正的1.33%,多空人数比值也不是大比例失衡的,差不多六四分,比这多空比夸张的都没有见过这么高的费率! 这尼玛到底是大户在搞事? 还是庄家在搞事?可以关注一下后续。

以上只是个人分析,不构成任何投资建议!

Trending Cryptos

Related Reads

Latest: Korean QFI Has Bought Changxin Technology

Latest Data Shows Korean QFI Has Purchased Changxin Technology According to data from SEIBro (under Korea Securities Depository, KSD), Korean investors, acting as Qualified Foreign Investors (QFI), have been actively purchasing shares of Changxin Technology (stock code 688825), a company recently listed on China's Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market). Over the past month until August 18, they made a net purchase of this stock worth approximately $45.32 million (around CNY 307 million), making it the top A-share by net purchase volume for Korean investors during that period. This activity has significantly boosted overall Korean net buying in A-shares. As Changxin Technology is not yet included in the Stock Connect schemes, QFI is currently the only channel for overseas investors like these Koreans to access its shares. SEIBro data indicates Korean buying began as early as July 28, the stock's second trading day. The stock appeared in Korean investor purchase lists using a temporary virtual ISIN code in settlement instructions, as its official international code had not yet been assigned. The listing has garnered significant international attention. On its first trading day (July 27), the actively managed U.S. ETF Tema Memory ETF (DISK) swiftly added Changxin Technology to its portfolio, giving it a substantial 10.56% weighting. Another active ETF, Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), also quickly included the stock. Furthermore, global index provider MSCI has added Changxin Technology to its MSCI China All Shares Index, prompting passive fund inflows. Analysts highlight Changxin Technology's unique position to serve China's rapidly growing AI ecosystem amid a global semiconductor memory supply shortage driven by AI demand. Besides Changxin Technology, other A-shares heavily bought by Korean investors recently include Weichai Power, Demingli, Changdian Technology, and CSOP China STAR Chip ETF.

marsbit30m ago

Latest: Korean QFI Has Bought Changxin Technology

marsbit30m ago

China Pinches the Vital Point of CPO

The article "China Grips the Achilles' Heel of CPO" details how China holds a strategic position in the global indium phosphide (InP) supply chain, a critical material for high-speed optical modules and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology used in AI data centers. China controls over 70% of global indium reserves and produces more than half of the world's primary indium, primarily as a by-product of zinc/tin smelting. It further refines 70-80% of the globe's refined indium. This upstream dominance is compounded by the fact that key InP wafer producer AXT operates its primary production through its Chinese subsidiary, Beijing Tongmei. Adding to this leverage are China's export controls, first on InP products and later extending to high-purity indium (6N+ grade). These restrictions have created supply bottlenecks and uncertainty, straining foreign manufacturers like Japan's Sumitomo and Dowa, who rely heavily on Chinese materials. The resulting shortage has led to intense demand, with industry figures like Lumentum's CEO warning of severe constraints and companies like Coherent seeking direct assurances from China. This situation benefits Chinese InP supply chain companies. Firms like Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium (a leading domestic InP wafer producer) and Zhuzhou Keneng (high-purity indium) report surging domestic revenues and orders. They are also making progress in high-end product validation and capacity expansion. However, challenges remain, including lengthy customer qualification cycles and a significant capacity gap compared to foreign leaders. The article frames the current AI-driven demand surge as a pivotal moment for China's InP industry. It references a historical lesson where China, despite controlling indium resources, once ceded value-add and pricing power to Japanese processors. The current scenario is seen as an opportunity to leverage upstream resource control to develop advanced manufacturing capabilities and secure greater influence in the global semiconductor materials market.

marsbit40m ago

China Pinches the Vital Point of CPO

marsbit40m ago

Russian Suspected of Stealing Cryptocurrency from Cold Wallet Worth Almost 10 Million Rubles

Russian authorities are investigating a suspect accused of stealing nearly 10 million rubles worth of cryptocurrency from a cold wallet. According to investigators, the wallet belonged to an unnamed commercial company executive's assistant. In March, the suspect allegedly gained access to the victim's wallet by "an unidentified method" and transferred the digital assets to another address. During a search of the suspect's home, police seized three computers and three mobile phones for forensic examination, as they may contain important digital evidence. The case is being investigated as grand larceny under the Russian Criminal Code, carrying a potential sentence of up to ten years in prison. Police are also checking the suspect's possible involvement in other cryptocurrency thefts and identifying potential accomplices. The article notes that while cold wallets (hardware wallets storing private keys offline) are considered more secure against remote hacking, they remain vulnerable if a perpetrator gains physical or direct access to the keys. In a related case earlier in June, a court in Tomsk sentenced two men to 8 and 9.5 years in a strict-regime colony for a robbery and cryptocurrency theft. They forced an acquaintance at knifepoint to log into a crypto exchange account and transfer over 85 bitcoins, valued at approximately $5.1 million at the time.

cryptonews.ru1h ago

Russian Suspected of Stealing Cryptocurrency from Cold Wallet Worth Almost 10 Million Rubles

cryptonews.ru1h ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is DOGE M

Doge Matrix ($doge m): The New Breed of Community-Driven Cryptocurrency Introduction In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, new projects constantly emerge, each aiming to capture the interest of investors and enthusiasts alike. One of the latest entrants to this domain is Doge Matrix, represented by the ticker symbol $doge m. This project has attracted attention thanks to its roots in the popular meme culture surrounding Dogecoin, establishing its place within the web3 space. This article aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of Doge Matrix, covering its overview, creator, investors, functionality, timeline, and notable aspects. What is Doge Matrix ($doge m)? Doge Matrix is a community-driven cryptocurrency project that seemingly builds upon the widespread appeal of Dogecoin, a digital currency known for its Shiba Inu mascot and its meme origins. While the overarching objectives of Doge Matrix are not extensively defined, it is characterized by a commitment to harnessing community involvement and support. Unlike traditional cryptocurrencies that often emphasize utility or intrinsic value through underlying technologies, Doge Matrix positions itself within a space that embraces the cultural phenomenon of cryptocurrencies, particularly appealing to those who resonate with the ethos of meme-based assets. Drawing on the strengths of the Dogecoin community, Doge Matrix operates as part of a broader ecosystem, inviting participation and engagement from users who share an interest in cryptocurrency and the digital landscape. Who is the Creator of Doge Matrix ($doge m)? The identity of the creator of Doge Matrix remains unknown. This lack of transparency is not an uncommon occurrence in the cryptocurrency space, where some projects are launched without revealing the identities of their founders. The absence of information regarding the founding team can raise questions among potential investors about the project’s accountability and direction. Who are the Investors of Doge Matrix ($doge m)? As it stands, there is no publicly available information detailing the investors or investment foundations that back Doge Matrix. The project appears to rely primarily on community support rather than institutional investment. This model aligns with the community-driven nature of the initiative, fostering an environment where the direction of the project is shaped by its participants rather than being dictated by a select few financial backers. How Does Doge Matrix ($doge m) Work? The specifics regarding the operational mechanisms of Doge Matrix are somewhat vague, reflecting a broader trend of projects in the meme coin space where innovative functionalities are not always clearly articulated. Nonetheless, Doge Matrix seems designed to tap into the existing cryptocurrency ecosystem by encouraging user participation while tapping into the familiar cultural references associated with Dogecoin. Its potentially unique characteristics derive from community interactions rather than technological advancements, emphasizing shared experiences and collaboration among token holders. While the exact innovations have not been explicitly outlined, the project appears to create a space where community members can engage, share ideas, and propel the project's potential forward. Timeline of Doge Matrix ($doge m) Reflecting on the project’s timeline reveals notable events that have defined its journey thus far: November 25, 2024: Doge Matrix reached its all-time high value, marking a significant milestone in its early history. January 1, 2025: Conversely, Doge Matrix hit its all-time low value, illustrating the volatility often associated with cryptocurrencies, especially in the early stages of a project's lifecycle. Ongoing: The project continues to be actively traded and supported by its community, although specific future milestones or objectives have yet to be disclosed. Key Points About Doge Matrix ($doge m) Community Focus At the heart of Doge Matrix is a commitment to community engagement. The project thrives on the premise of collaboration and shared objectives among its members, emphasizing the importance of collective effort. Unlike centralized projects that often have a defined leadership structure, Doge Matrix at present showcases a more fluid approach to governance, where every community member's voice matters. Volatility The cryptocurrency market is notorious for its volatility, and Doge Matrix is no exception. Its price history reflects significant fluctuations between high and low values, which is typical of many new cryptocurrencies but underscores the risks associated with investment in emerging tokens. Lack of Detailed Information One of the most striking features about Doge Matrix is the scarcity of detailed information regarding its technological underpinnings and operational mechanisms. This ambiguity necessitates that potential investors conduct thorough due diligence before engaging with the project. Conclusion In summary, Doge Matrix ($doge m) illustrates a new wave of cryptocurrency projects that lean heavily on community engagement and cultural relevance. While lacking in certain specifics—such as clear leadership, defined objectives, and detailed functionality—the project has managed to generate interest within the crypto community, leveraging the established appeal of meme culture. As with any investment in the cryptocurrency space, understanding the inherent risks and conducting comprehensive research is essential for potential participants. Doge Matrix stands as a reminder of the dynamic, sometimes unpredictable nature of the crypto industry, marked by constant evolution and enthusiasm for community-driven initiatives.

4.4k Total ViewsPublished 2025.02.03Updated 2025.02.03

What is DOGE M

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of DOGE (DOGE) are presented below.

活动图片